@antiterror13 agree sir , especially IF my nephew was conscripted to fight, that will surely change his mind. And here Sir many may question the motive of DPP politician in their war advocacy. Should your son's enlist first before ours? that is a very valid question.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
- Start date
- Status
I think the people at the helm of Russia really didn't think the US would go all the way to a swift ban, and also EU completely following the US like a dog listening to its master.
Indeed. Putin was dumb enough to pull back from the dollar and then decided to invest in euros, lol. That's some grade A idiocy at play there
Last edited:
They expected the SWIFT ban. They made SPFS and Mir because of it. What they did not expect was the West stealing their Russian Central Bank reserves. They probably only expected the US to freeze their dollar assets. And that is why they divested from the dollar.
Anyway what foreign reserves they did have, most of them were either in Europe, or in China. Or even other nations.
It was basically a vote in confidence in the EU. But they proved not to be trustworthy. I think the major mistake Russia made was the Russian Central Bank stopping gold purchases two years ago. They should have continued buying their own gold instead of selling it abroad in Western markets. If you look at the latest numbers on the Russian reserves, at the end of this year, they did start moving from the Euro to the Yuan but were still doing this slowly.
Anyway what foreign reserves they did have, most of them were either in Europe, or in China. Or even other nations.
It was basically a vote in confidence in the EU. But they proved not to be trustworthy. I think the major mistake Russia made was the Russian Central Bank stopping gold purchases two years ago. They should have continued buying their own gold instead of selling it abroad in Western markets. If you look at the latest numbers on the Russian reserves, at the end of this year, they did start moving from the Euro to the Yuan but were still doing this slowly.
And similarly, China should start divesting itself of its dollar reserved assets if America gets overly antagonist (even if the mainland is not looking to attack Taiwan). It's not uncommon in the past year for right wing politicians to call for seizure of Chinese holdings on US treasury as a reparation to COVID.
It is a little bit of mystery what China is doing with its current trading surplus with America
No, it’s a way to divide the EU and the US. By potentially, with Chinas help, making the EUR the reserve currency instead of the USD. This option is still a possibility and would have many supporters in Europe.
Well that’s the great think about Democracy, there are elections all the time, all can be forgiven and win-win cooperation achieved in the future. Just need to wait.
I don’t believe he was being entirely truthful.
The US had said all through late January and early February that if Russia attacked Ukraine proper, as opposed to Danbass, the west will coordinate a freezing of Russian foreign reserves and severing of russia from SWIFT.
The US said it publically abs often enough that it has to be seen that there is a high chance the US would follow through because it would be very embarrassing for the US to make such threats and then make it hollow,
This is something putin should have realized very clearly because he was in the middle of wanting the US to realize his threat to attack Ukraine would be followed through because it would be very embarrassing for the russia to make such threats and then make it hollow. he certainly must realize the US is in the middle of doing same with threats to freeze russian foreign reserve and cutting off swift.
Had russia been able to quickly overwhelm ukraine and install a pro-russia poppet government in ukraine, say within 2 weeks. the move to freeze russian foreign reserve and severe russia from SWIFT would not have lasted long. The fact that war ended with little casualties means outrage at russia would quickly fade. The slogan of reducing reliance on Russian gas and oil will also quickly wear thin. Soon russian gas and oil will return themain negotiating leverage back to russia, and russia can use conditional delivery of oil and gas to pry frozen foreign reserve out of the hands of the west, and insist on restoration of SWIFT.
So my conclusion is Russia factored the freezing of its foreign reserve and its cut off from SWIFT into its profit loss assessment of a successful invasion of ukraine.
Where they went wrong is they did much less well during the invasion of ukraine than they anticipated and as a result was unable to wrap up the ukrainian “special operation”. So western hostility is daily becoming greater, while the day when russia can regain enough leverage with its oil and gas to reclaim its foreign is receding beyond the edge of foreseeable future.
I think the reason why the russian foreign minister would now claim to a domestic audience that freezing of foreign reserve and cutting off of SWIFT was unexpected is simply to detach the link between the fact russia would be unable to reclaim its foreign reserve and restore SWIFT access in the foreseeable future from Russia’s abysmal performance in ukraine and inability to put the war behind itself and behind the world’s focus in the foreseeable future.
Instead Russia would like to refocus discontent that might arise from its poor military performance into anger towards the west for supposedly going beyond the pail and taking extremist measures in its treatment of russia.
Last edited:
- Status