Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Skywatcher said:

Ukraine had hundreds of thousands of war veterans due to ongoing fighting in the Donbass since 2014. Having someone who's been bled under fire counts for a lot in territorial defense.

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Bleeding in the wrong kind of war doesn’t always help much. Not analyzing the experience with intellectual rigor can diminish the impact of even applicable experience. The Russians had plenty of experience in Donbas as well as Syria too. Didn’t help them very much in Ukraine

History has other examples of the larger and more respected army that seemingly had much more practical experience, but in a different kind of war, being trounced by another army with less experience but whose staff had been much more diligent and more intellectually inquisitive and honest about using rigorous war games and and exercises to feel out what the next war is going to be like.

One sterling example is to be found in the Franco Prussian war of 1870. The French army of Napoleon III was widely considered to be the most powerful, most experienced and most proficient army in the world. Almost all commentators in Europe, including the very Karl Marx and Frederick Engels hallowed in communist pantheon, predicted a quick and overwhelming victory for France over Prussia because the amount of experience the French had under its belt. Yet the Prussia general staff’s rigorously intellectual approach to studying war enabled the prussians to be better trained, better equipped and have better doctrine, and be generally better prepared for the actual type of war that would be fought. As a result, the Prussians trounced the French and founded modern German state.

ansy1968 said:

@Skywatcher Sir your possible scenario? From my discussion with my brother in law, he will fight IF the Chinese invade BUT he support a peaceful reunification. If the Chinese use blockade It may intensify their resistance? I think this Ukraine war, the Chinese may adopt some of the Russian Tactic and may use a lot of Fifth column elements to induce defection among prominent Taiwanese politician while targeting the hardcore

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Does your brother-in-law have a background with the military? Did he serve in the ROC military a while back and how is his fitness level/conditioning because if his health and fitness level not to mention unfamiliarity with weapons, tactical awareness etc..is non-existent how exactly is he going to be able to contribute that can even remotely make any changes other than being one of the cannon fodders for the PLA and a hindrance for the ROC military. His bravery is admirable but otherwise foolish.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Does your brother-in-law have a background with the military? Did he serve in the ROC military a while back and how is his fitness level/conditioning because if his health and fitness level not to mention unfamiliarity with weapons, tactical awareness etc..is non-existent how exactly is he going to be able to contribute that can even remotely make any changes other than being one of the cannon fodders for the PLA and a hindrance for the ROC military. His bravery is admirable but otherwise foolish.

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@Bellum_Romanum bro he had been conscripted before and so is my nephew. My brother in law is strong for his age (58 years old) and for him he dread a war because for his concern on his only son (24 years old) as most of us parents do. My nephew thinking is the same, what would you do IF a intruder enter your house, you subdue them and protect your home. And I think the Chinese military planners do factor that in, there is a silent majority that prefer the status quo, why not use it to achieved your goal with minimal cost in lives and expenses. Why not initiate a regime change instead of outright invasion.

ansy1968 said:

@Bellum_Romanum bro he had been conscripted before and so is my nephew. My brother in law is strong for his age (58 years old) and for him he dread a war because for his concern on his only son (24 years old) as most of us parents do. My nephew thinking is the same, what would you do IF a intruder enter your house, you subdue them and protect your home. And I think the Chinese military planners do factor that in, there is a silent majority that prefer the status quo, why not use it to achieved your goal with minimal cost in lives and expenses. Why not initiate a regime change instead of outright invasion.

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The words Russia uses to describe the objectives their "special operation" is "denazification" and "demilitarization", for the "denazification" part it sounds to me that they are planning to overthrow or limit the control of the Ukrainian government. China could declare something similar, with more clearer definition like "Reinforcing the status quo" or "Getting rid of foreign interference". Judging by the plans of the Taiwan military to hide their assets behind civilian buildings, they could convince the Taiwanese population that their own military is endangering them and working for external forces.

Taiwan seems to be embracing the admirable strategy of everything except for asymmetrical defense. I personally strongly support this course of action, perhaps the ROC will take it a step forward and paint targets on their military installations?

Coalescence said:

The words Russia uses to describe the objectives their "special operation" is "denazification" and "demilitarization", for the "denazification" part it sounds to me that they are planning to overthrow or limit the control of the Ukrainian government. China could declare something similar, with more clearer definition like "Reinforcing the status quo" or "Getting rid of foreign interference". Judging by the plans of the Taiwan military to hide their assets behind civilian buildings, they could convince the Taiwanese population that their own military is endangering them and working for external forces.

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This kind of methods is reliant on what are ultimately wish thinking. It might work, but most probably it won’t. one should count on it not working, and be fully prepared to prosecute the war without it, and be pleasantly surprised if it against expectation works.

it can be disastrous to count on such an unreliable thing as part of the advantage necessary to win, and be left high and dry when the thing failed to materialize after shots have been fired, as the russians kindly demonstrates.

China has codified into law the conditions for an armed reunification. This means that China will not use force unless those conditions are met.

The most obvious dangers is if the US induces Taiwan into declaring independence. The thing is, if Taiwan declares independence, then it is as much as an admission that it was not independent before, and therefore it is in a state of rebellion. By international laws, China would then have the right to send in the military to suppress the rebellion.

This means that if the US was to openly defend Taiwan, it would be a declaration of war against China. The most effective counter to that is to threaten nuclear escalation. There are no other options when two major nuclear powers come to open conflict. For this reason, I do not believe China and the US will ever come into direct conflict.

The more likely scenario is indirect support such as we are seeing in Ukraine. In such an eventuality, we would likely see the US attempting to supply Taiwan from Japanese islands. Realistically, this means only the northern tip of Taiwan could be resupplied.

This likely means that Taipei will need to be the focus of the conflict. Unfortunately, this also means that Taipei will undergo heavy bombardment.

One way to avoid this is through a successful decapitation strike. If the TW leadership can be captured or destroyed right away, the entire ROCAF might surrender peacefully. To pre-empt those who bring up Ukraine, I would point out that TW is not Ukraine.

TW has known for decades that a declaration of independence would mean war. The vast majority of people in TW do not want war. Therefore, any declaration of independence would be highly unpopular. Every ROCAF soldier would be fighting with the understanding that their government pushed them into war against their will.

Another factor is that the US is not going to get the kind of intelligence they are able to get from Russia. The CIA network in China is in tatters. What's more, the ROCAF top brass is filled with people who staunchly oppose TW independence. This means China will have excellent intel on TW. I wouldn't be surprised if Beijing knew exactly where Tsai's emergency bunker was, and what route they'd take to get there.

That said, even if the decapitation strike was unsuccessful, China still has the option of completely leveling Taipei and surrounding areas. Doing so will cut off the rest of the island from US reinforcement and supplies.

Since I'm sure US military planners are completely aware of this, here's my key point: I do not believe the US will try to trigger a Taiwan crisis against China. Taiwan has far more value as it is. US lawmakers can make some meaningless gesture and play to their domestic audience, or to shore up support among their JP and SK vassals. Actually triggering a war would result in the complete opposite effects!

Richard Santos said:

This kind of methods is reliant on what are ultimately wish thinking. It might work, but most probably it won’t. one should count on it not working, and be fully prepared to prosecute the war without it, and be pleasantly surprised if it against expectation works.

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@Richard Santos I disagree, It might work IF the Chinese employs some KMT politicians to take over the reins of governance instead of one coming from Beijing. My thesis "Why Destroy Something you Owned" Since Sun Tzu is our ancestor it will be an oxymoron not to include his teaching of "Winning without Fighting" the ultimate form of Victory.

Richard Santos said:

it can be disastrous to count on such an unreliable thing as part of the advantage necessary to win, and be left high and dry when the thing failed to materialize after shots have been fired, as the russians kindly demonstrates.

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The Russian Campaign in Ukraine is at its midway phase, you may criticize it BUT for me the target is the Ukrainian Army, without it the Elensky gov't will fall and so far the campaign had demonstrated the effectiveness of the Russian Combined Arms Maneuvers, the only fault, the Russian try to win the war for cheap not unlike the past en masses strategy of WW2. For us here what is the end goal of the Russian? a whole occupation of Ukraine or partitioning leaving the western part as a bargaining tool with Poland?

ansy1968 said:

@Skywatcher Sir your possible scenario? From my discussion with my brother in law, he will fight IF the Chinese invade BUT he support a peaceful reunification. If the Chinese use blockade It may intensify their resistance? I think this Ukraine war, the Chinese may adopt some of the Russian Tactic and may use a lot of Fifth column elements to induce defection among prominent Taiwanese politician while targeting the hardcore traitors.

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Well @ansy1968 ... easy said than done ... with all due respect to your brother in law, I don't think your brother in law would fight PLA once he sees how hopeless would be after seeing everything been destroyed ... note: Chine wouldn't land their army until all been destroyed first

Guerrilla warfare against PLA ? .. good luck with that, PLA is the "god" of guerrilla warfare

Richard Santos said:

This kind of methods is reliant on what are ultimately wish thinking. It might work, but most probably it won’t. one should count on it not working, and be fully prepared to prosecute the war without it, and be pleasantly surprised if it against expectation works.

it can be disastrous to count on such an unreliable thing as part of the advantage necessary to win, and be left high and dry when the thing failed to materialize after shots have been fired, as the russians kindly demonstrates.

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Yes, we shouldn't expect like Russia did, that the military would surrender en masse, the leadership capitulating and the citizens accepting them as liberators. There should be a backup plan to escalate it to a whole blown war, but this tactic is still worth a try. The other thing Russia have been during the war is to keep pushing out propaganda and humanitarian aid to attempt winning the hearts of the people in the captured areas, and constantly pointing out the Ukrainian military is endangering their own citizen by hiding in civilian areas and using them as meat shield.

This may not have a material benefit in winning the war but it helps make the population accept and even sympathize with the "liberators" cause, easing the pressures from the civilian population during and after the war is over. The last thing China would want is the Taiwanese population having their interest aligned with their regime and becoming completely hostile to China, and then having to manage the consequence from it post-war.