Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

solarz said:

China has codified into law the conditions for an armed reunification. This means that China will not use force unless those conditions are met.

The most obvious dangers is if the US induces Taiwan into declaring independence. The thing is, if Taiwan declares independence, then it is as much as an admission that it was not independent before, and therefore it is in a state of rebellion. By international laws, China would then have the right to send in the military to suppress the rebellion.

This means that if the US was to openly defend Taiwan, it would be a declaration of war against China. The most effective counter to that is to threaten nuclear escalation. There are no other options when two major nuclear powers come to open conflict. For this reason, I do not believe China and the US will ever come into direct conflict.

The more likely scenario is indirect support such as we are seeing in Ukraine. In such an eventuality, we would likely see the US attempting to supply Taiwan from Japanese islands. Realistically, this means only the northern tip of Taiwan could be resupplied.

This likely means that Taipei will need to be the focus of the conflict. Unfortunately, this also means that Taipei will undergo heavy bombardment.

One way to avoid this is through a successful decapitation strike. If the TW leadership can be captured or destroyed right away, the entire ROCAF might surrender peacefully. To pre-empt those who bring up Ukraine, I would point out that TW is not Ukraine.

TW has known for decades that a declaration of independence would mean war. The vast majority of people in TW do not want war. Therefore, any declaration of independence would be highly unpopular. Every ROCAF soldier would be fighting with the understanding that their government pushed them into war against their will.

Another factor is that the US is not going to get the kind of intelligence they are able to get from Russia. The CIA network in China is in tatters. What's more, the ROCAF top brass is filled with people who staunchly oppose TW independence. This means China will have excellent intel on TW. I wouldn't be surprised if Beijing knew exactly where Tsai's emergency bunker was, and what route they'd take to get there.

That said, even if the decapitation strike was unsuccessful, China still has the option of completely leveling Taipei and surrounding areas. Doing so will cut off the rest of the island from US reinforcement and supplies.

Since I'm sure US military planners are completely aware of this, here's my key point: I do not believe the US will try to trigger a Taiwan crisis against China. Taiwan has far more value as it is. US lawmakers can make some meaningless gesture and play to their domestic audience, or to shore up support among their JP and SK vassals. Actually triggering a war would result in the complete opposite effects!

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antiterror13 said:

Well @ansy1968 ... easy said than done ... with all due respect to your brother in law, I don't think your brother in law would fight PLA once he sees how hopeless would be after seeing everything been destroyed ... note: Chine wouldn't land their army until all been destroyed first

Guerrilla warfare against PLA ? .. good luck with that, PLA is the "god" of guerrilla warfare

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Coalescence said:

Yes, we shouldn't expect like Russia did, that the military would surrender en masse, the leadership capitulating and the citizens accepting them as liberators. There should be a backup plan to escalate it to a whole blown war, but this tactic is still worth a try. The other thing Russia have been during the war is to keep pushing out propaganda and humanitarian aid to attempt winning the hearts of the people in the captured areas, and constantly pointing out the Ukrainian military is endangering their own citizen by hiding in civilian areas and using them as meat shield.

This may not have a material benefit in winning the war but it helps make the population accept and even sympathize with the "liberators" cause, easing the pressures from the civilian population during and after the war is over. The last thing China would want is the Taiwanese population having their interest aligned with their regime and becoming completely hostile to China, and then having to manage the consequence from it post-war.

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ansy1968 said:

@antiterror13 Sir it well be true BUT emotion is a two way street, IF the aftermath is less destructive and an establishment of new gov't of local origin maybe HE can be assuage BUT an occupying force with gov't coming from Beijing then we may see a resistance. Sir the Ukraine War is manna in heaven for the CCP, there is a lesson to be learned and can be adopted and second the fear that permeates inside the DPP with added awakening among the populace that their gov't is selling them a false promises.

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ansy1968 said:

@Coalescence bro our ideas merge hehehe you and I have the same thinking...lol maybe being middle age with Children to boot have harden my stance for war. And compare with the Ukraine War, we are family , we can talk and solve the problem among ourselves, both side of the Taiwan Straits knows this, so we can sell this to the Taiwanese that this is a US hybrid war and you're a victim. That's why the Russian action resonate and the DPP is trying hard to disproved it.

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Coalescence said:

Indeed, I personally don't want a war over the straits nor do I want Taiwan to be imposed with a system their own citizen do not like, harming our kin and creating division should be avoided as much as possible. What I hope is if it comes down to armed reunification, the result is Taiwan will be given the "One country, two system" approach but modified a bit to give them more autonomy. I think the CPC themselves aren't really fully for reunification or want to manage Taiwan, based on what my parents have said, that back then the CPC does a similar rhetoric of reunification of Taiwan in 2000, but never acted upon it. What's important to them is that Taiwan shouldn't become a military base or an "unsinkable aircraft" to be used by the US to contain China in the first island chain, national security is their main concern with Taiwan not ideological reasons.

The least I think China would do after the war is over, is to setup their own military base and put their troops there, enshrine in the constitution that Taiwan is part of China but is managed by ROC and designate separatist/independence ideology as terrorism/extremism that should rooted out and will be punishable by removable from government position/election and imprisonment. In return, China would start becoming more active in supporting Taiwan economically and socially, like protecting their fishing vessels and island territories, partially funding their pension/government wages, and giving them emergency/humanitarian aid when disaster strikes or when they experience drought/food shortages.

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supersnoop said:

The legal part is already part of the constitution. The constitution is that of the Republic of China, not Taiwan.

The official procedure of constitutional amendment would require 2/3rds majority in Legislative Yuan to approve plebiscite vote proceeded by 75% vote.

So really, the President or majority party cannot legally simply declare independence.

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supersnoop said:

The legal part is already part of the constitution. The constitution is that of the Republic of China, not Taiwan.

The official procedure of constitutional amendment would require 2/3rds majority in Legislative Yuan to approve plebiscite vote proceeded by 75% vote.

So really, the President or majority party cannot legally simply declare independence.

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antiterror13 said:

Are you aware that Taiwan is an island and Taiwan and has no land border and only have 30% food self sufficiency and the rest has to be imported?

Ukraine is land country that bordering many countries with 20x bigger than Taiwan and 2x more population

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ansy1968 said:

@antiterror13 Sir the more reason that rationale thinking will prevail. China have an escalatory dominance in the Taiwan strait , You and everyone here know this except the DPP...lol Sir my best scenario is a limited and decapitated strike working with a Fifth column to established a regime change gov't combine with a naval blockade and focus it's arsenal on any possible rescue attempt from the Collective West. The destruction should be focus on the real enemy not on our fellow kin.

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