Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

siegecrossbow said:

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Oh, I saw this earlier and was just about to post it.

Unfortunately, US military pundits and armchair QBs are taking all the wrong lessons from Ukraine conflict. They think China = Russia in terms of preparedness and training and morale. And somehow Taiwan = Ukraine in those areas.

All these reports out of Taiwan have been quite consistent. There is very high corruption level and high low preparedness or training in the actual ROC military. I went to Taiwan a few years ago and I will stand by what I have said many times. The Taiwanese people I met are like me. I have no desire to fight in a real war and die or get injured. Neither do the people that I met.

On the flip side, I think PLA is going to learn the right lessons from Ukraine. Don't underestimate your opponent. Don't be satisfied with large exercises that are just for show. Exercise and train as close to real battlefield conditions as possible. Have overwhelming fire power when you do launch an attack. If you do decide to attack, don't half ass it and hope for the best. And don't attack unless you are willing to and able to deal with getting cut off from the Western world.

The PLA has been increasingly making its training more realistic. That includes, conducting operations while under crippling cyberattacks, EW, accidents/break-downs happening on random vehicles/equipment, enemy troops evading detection and appearing in random/unexpected places, missiles fired which then malfunction, "bad luck" = we fired at your location dozen of times but we still missed etc.

There has been a real progress in realistic training the past years, however there is still a long way to go. This is also why the PLA and even Xi himself, are regularly openly talking about conducting realistic training.

Overbom said:

The PLA has been increasingly making its training more realistic. That includes, conducting operations while under crippling cyberattacks, EW, accidents/break-downs happening on random vehicles/equipment, enemy troops evading detection and appearing in random/unexpected places, missiles fired which then malfunction, "bad luck" = we fired at your location dozen of times but we still missed etc.

There has been a real progress in realistic training the past years, however there is still a long way to go. This is also why the PLA and even Xi himself, are regularly openly talking about conducting realistic training.

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On the flip side, has there been a Hanguang Exercise where the Opfor hasn’t been defeated?

tphuang said:

And don't attack unless you are willing to and able to deal with getting cut off from the Western world.

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There is zero chance of this. You don't simply cut off the world's largest economy, largest trading nation, largest manufacturing nation, and largest creditor nation over an unrecognized state that nobody in West has a treaty obligation to defend, much less even acknowledge it's sovereign existence.

At best, West will end all trade/investments with Chinese-occupied Taiwan to give it the Xinjiang cotton ban treatment (e.g. suffocate it economically to foment discontent and rebellion) and render it's semiconductor industry unusable (except staff talent), even if it means Apple has to rely on Intel/Samsung instead of TSMC for their processor chips and even if it means bringing West into semiconductor shock. It's the same as US ending all trade/investments into DNR/LNR after Russian 'peacekeepers' entered to occupy it, you can expect the same with Taiwan. Any sanctions targeting mainland will be focused on individuals or entities, not broad market attacks like against Russia, because China is 14X larger GDP than Russia and US will be hell of a lot hurt trying to pull some Russian sanctions on China.

Phead128 said:

There is zero chance of this. You don't simply cut off the world's largest economy, largest trading nation, largest manufacturing nation, and largest creditor nation over an unrecognized state that nobody in West has a treaty obligation to defend, much less even acknowledge it's sovereign existence.

At best, West will end all trade/investments with Chinese-occupied Taiwan to give it the Xinjiang cotton ban treatment (e.g. suffocate it economically to foment discontent and rebellion) and render it's semiconductor industry unusable (except staff talent), even if it means Apple has to rely on Intel/Samsung instead of TSMC for their processor chips and even if it means bringing West into semiconductor shock. It's the same as US ending all trade/investments into DNR/LNR after Russian 'peacekeepers' entered to occupy it, you can expect the same with Taiwan. Any sanctions targeting mainland will be focused on individuals or entities, not broad market attacks like against Russia, because China is 14X larger GDP than Russia and US will be hell of a lot hurt trying to pull some Russian sanctions on China.

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RU also believed there were zero chance US could slap sanction on their central bank.

escobar said:

RU also believed there were zero chance US could slap sanction on their central bank.

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Ok. Then post a source on your claim.

“realistic training” should be an open ended exercise designed to carefully explore what the viable options there really are on each side of the conflict, and explore what conditions the exercise of these option would creates for all ranks on each side, as much as it should be about exposing men and equipment to, and testing them against, preconceived notions of conditions similar to real combat.

In the long run, the former is much more important than the latter.

to do the former well require a organizational culture that promotes a high degree of intellectual honesty, and a inculcate deeper respect for expertise and experience than rank and political patronage.

to have the this culture prevail in the military, This attitude has to be somewhat prevalent in the civil society from which the military draws its recruits and its officer candidates.

Overbom said:

There has been a real progress in realistic training the past years, however there is still a long way to go. This is also why the PLA and even Xi himself, are regularly openly talking about conducting realistic training.

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The move to realistic training started before Xi took over. PLA has known for a long time that it needs to go in that direction.

But as with everything else, PLA needs to continue to making things ever more realistic and improve on joint training. Being overly prepared is the right way to go.

Phead128 said:

There is zero chance of this. You don't simply cut off the world's largest economy, largest trading nation, largest manufacturing nation, and largest creditor nation over an unrecognized state that nobody in West has a treaty obligation to defend, much less even acknowledge it's sovereign existence.

At best, West will end all trade/investments with Chinese-occupied Taiwan to give it the Xinjiang cotton ban treatment (e.g. suffocate it economically to foment discontent and rebellion) and render it's semiconductor industry unusable (except staff talent), even if it means Apple has to rely on Intel/Samsung instead of TSMC for their processor chips and even if it means bringing West into semiconductor shock. It's the same as US ending all trade/investments into DNR/LNR after Russian 'peacekeepers' entered to occupy it, you can expect the same with Taiwan. Any sanctions targeting mainland will be focused on individuals or entities, not broad market attacks like against Russia, because China is 14X larger GDP than Russia and US will be hell of a lot hurt trying to pull some Russian sanctions on China.

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While there will be a large push by the business community to keep ties open, I think all bets are off if US joins in on the conflict. And since that is a very realistic possibility, China would need to be prepared for it. As I said before, there is no need for China to attack Taiwan unless Taiwan crosses the red line. But if they do attack without Taiwan crossing the red line, they better be sure they can accomplish their goals quick and clean.

Richard Santos said:

Actually, I would be curious about whether the training of most Ukrainian reservists during the year leading up to the Russian invasion was any more strenuous and realistic.

I think the first part of the cardinal lesson offered by Russia’s Ukrainian experience is how tempting it is to succumb to confirmation bias in moments of chauvinistic ferver, and over estimate the value of any evidence that seem to suggest fatal ineptitude and lack of resolve on the part of the enemy, and dismiss or trivializing the implication of any evidence which might suggest the tempting goal of glittering national triumph might actually be uncomfortably difficult to attain with means at hand. The second part is how important it is to resist this temptation.

One usually suffers much less if one happen to overestimating the enemy than if one happen to underestimate the enemy. The only thing lost in the former case is the mirage of a glorious triumph floating just above the horizon. The things lost in the later case would be lives, treasure, influences, and often the war itself.

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Ukraine had hundreds of thousands of war veterans due to ongoing fighting in the Donbass since 2014. Having someone who's been bled under fire counts for a lot in territorial defense.

Skywatcher said:

Ukraine had hundreds of thousands of war veterans due to ongoing fighting in the Donbass since 2014. Having someone who's been bled under fire counts for a lot in territorial defense.

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@Skywatcher Sir your possible scenario? From my discussion with my brother in law, he will fight IF the Chinese invade BUT he support a peaceful reunification. If the Chinese use blockade It may intensify their resistance? I think this Ukraine war, the Chinese may adopt some of the Russian Tactic and may use a lot of Fifth column elements to induce defection among prominent Taiwanese politician while targeting the hardcore traitors.