Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Status
Not open for further replies.

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
It doesn't mean that mainland Chinese didn't in effect accept a second class citizen status in comparison to HK citizens and Macao citizens within PRC. It was far easier for mainland Chinese to swallow their complaints and resentments before the HK protest in 2019. When it comes to Taiwan, I am not so sure especially for younger generations of Chinese (those born after 2000). Afterall, many of them grew up in much better conditions than their parents.

There are so few Taiwanese that they will barely register.

Remember that there are a lot more ethnic minorities in mainland China, and they also receive affirmative action type policies.
 

solarz

Brigadier
@solarz hi bro good day, what the Russian had done is a tactic worth imitating especially in Taiwan, for me the Taiwanese know they're defeated, but how much suffering can they endure and what about its aftermath. IF we follow the US shock and awed tactic and see the end result, are they worth emulating especially IF your end goal is a peaceful reunification?

My thesis is based on actual people which is my brother in law, he know the situation and I think there are a large silent majority who want to maintain the status quo. And IF the Chinese do invade after studying this Ukrainian conflict it will be mostly done using decapitation strike of key leadership and landing of forces in key strategic bases, leaving the city for fifth column to operate and govern. It's a cheap way to win a war and use those missile and armaments in US bases in Japan, SK and GUAM. As I said why destroy something you owned and why severely punished your kin, the sin of the few doesn't justify the persecution of all.

And watching the Ukrainian War for a month now, where are the so called resistance, we are used to hear that a majority of Ukrainian hate the Russian and they will fight fiercely, well I see otherwise and they are more afraid of their owned troops, it only show that the Western propaganda are full of shit and that is also true in Taiwan.

Definitely, I don't expect Taiwan to put up much resistance. China is also going to avoid bloodshed as long and as much as possible. This we agree on 100%.

What I'm saying though, is if ever circumstances called for it, and I hope this will never happen, China has a bottom line for Taiwan.
 

lcloo

Captain
I actually hope than the unification of Taiwan would be like the second Chinese Civil war. Quick and decisive without destruction of cities and population centres. None of the major Chinese cities got destroyed during the 1947-1950 war despite more than 2 millions KIA. (10 millions deaths in 1st and 2nd Civil war)

There could be fierce fightings and huge combattant deaths in Taiwan scenario but civilians should be spared as in 1947-1950. The key is to choose battle ground. Mao's strategy can still be applied today as in 70 years ago. Chinese Red Army win not because of their fire power but the support of people on both side of the front lines.
 

grulle

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia's performance in Ukraine has been disappointing. do you guys think the same can happen to China if and when China takes Taiwan by force?
 

texx1

Junior Member
There are so few Taiwanese that they will barely register.

Remember that there are a lot more ethnic minorities in mainland China, and they also receive affirmative action type policies.
You are underestimating the current resentments for outdated preferential ethnic policies in PRC as well. Higher education in mainland is a scarce resource, competition is so fierce that many parents send their children to tutoring after school in order to gain any slightest advantage. The situation got so bad that CCP decided to crack down on the tutoring industry.

It's also an open secret that children of most han-ethnic marriages would choose ethnic minority as their ethnicity for its benefits. Human nature dictates people by large would maximize their gains with minimum effort. Rational ones would always try to take the easy route.

Bonus mark for ethnic minority caused open protests in mainland. It's a very divisive issue especially among the lower classes (CCP core supporters) since most of them don't have the resources for foreign education outside of public system. They are most impacted by the preferential ethnic policies.

ccp ethnic policy2.jpg
ccp ethnic policy1.jpg
 

texx1

Junior Member
They are already used to Shanghainese & co looking down on the rest of the country. The knifes only comes out when you start mocking China, not their province/city. It'll just be another Hong Kong, where the rich & the well educated but less connected go to further their careers/wealth.
Just go to weibo, there are currently plenty of Chinese mocking Shanghai's incompetency at dealing with the current covid outbreak, the liberal/bourgeoisie conduct of Shanghainese rushing to buy coffee, the supposedly more civilized Shanghainese elbowing each other for vegetables.
 

texx1

Junior Member
Again, to my understanding nowadays the PLA is a volunteer force, do correct me if wrong.

In times of large/total war situations when volunteering force is no longer enough, HKers should be drafted just like the mainland Chinese. Hence, their details must already be in the system.
Doesn't the central government subside a lot of smaller provinces, cities etc.
Not to mention investments in poorer regions/places.

There still is a chain of command. Smaller provinces remit tax collected from their jurisdictions to the central government. Central government then makes transfer payments to provinces for meeting their budgetary shortfalls. When I was in college, I didn't make enough to pay income tax. But I still filed tax returns.
To be honest, I see an interest for the central government to get hong kongers to mainland universities (strengthening ties to the mainland).

Mainland has spared no expense trying to strengthen bonds with HK since 1997 return. 2019 protest showed at least to regular Chinese that all that pampering meant nothing.
Again I don't actually see this as some 'second class citizens', but more like a bit of better/special treatment that is given to like the elderly and disabled lol.

Let's just agree to disagree.
Besides back in 1997 when Hong Kong came back to China it was one of the top cities, nowadays with more development from the cities on the mainland the difference has strunk a lot (not to mention while the average gdp per capita might be high for hong kong, there's a number of problems such as the 'cage houses' etc.).

In the end there will be disgruntled people on weibo and so on, but I really do not foresee it being a big problem at all.

It would be a mistake to underestimate the amplifying capability of social media even in a tightly controlled setting as in mainland. When living standards rise, people's expectations also rise accordingly. In the 90s, there wouldn't be much public outcry over Xuzhou chained woman/human trafficking incident as it was relatively common in rural areas. People at large might understand. But time has changed, the public outrage and embarrassment got so bad that even premier Li had to make statements vowing to crackdown on human trafficking.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top