Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

texx1 said:

In times of large/total war situations when volunteering force is no longer enough, HKers should be drafted just like the mainland Chinese. Hence, their details must already be in the system.

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I honestly don't think that will be needed (not to mention there's reserves to be called up). Also what @FriedButter just wrote after me.

texx1 said:

There still is a chain of command. Smaller provinces remit tax collected from their jurisdictions to the central government. Central government then makes transfer payments to provinces for meeting their budgetary shortfalls. When I was in college, I didn't make enough to pay income tax. But I still filed tax returns.

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I c, still don't think it's a big issue at all lol (could also be considered a price to pay due to China losing Hong Kong long ago).

texx1 said:

Mainland has spared no expense trying to strengthen bonds with HK since 1997 return. 2019 protest showed at least to regular Chinese that all that pampering meant nothing.

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Yea there were lots of protests, but what about now? Things have calmed down (and lots of the roaches left), not to mention at the end of it all, the protesters were still a smaller % of the total Hong Kong population. (it will also be 'forgotten' as time goes on).

texx1 said:

Let's just agree to disagree.

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Sure

texx1 said:

It would be a mistake to underestimate the amplifying capability of social media even in a tightly controlled setting as in mainland. When living standards rise, people's expectations also rise accordingly. In the 90s, there wouldn't be much public outcry over Xuzhou chained woman/human trafficking incident as it was relatively common in rural areas. People at large might understand. But time has changed, the public outrage and embarrassment got so bad that even premier Li had to make statements vowing to crackdown on human trafficking.

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And again, I wrote earlier there will be unhappy people in China when Taiwan is reclaimed (and there are already for Hong Kong), but I do not think it will ultimately matter that much (not to mention things are improving a lot on the mainland, and I don't see that much growth in Taiwan).

Ultimately even after reunification happens, it will take decades before Taiwan becomes properly integrated and there will be many problems and challenges ahead, but it is a road that China has taken (with many good reasons) and is basically also unavoidable.

texx1 said:

In times of large/total war situations when volunteering force is no longer enough, HKers should be drafted just like the mainland Chinese. Hence, their details must already be in the system.

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Conscripts aren’t great on the frontlines but from my understanding. China does t intend to use conscripts as frontline units but more as logistics support further away from the front. It would allow the actual soldiers to be less bogged down back home.

FriedButter said:

Conscripts aren’t great on the frontlines but from my understanding. China does t intend to use conscripts as frontline units but more as logistics support further away from the front. It would allow the actual soldiers to be less bogged down back home.

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All those Chinese conscripts are actually volunteers who enter a 2-year conscription system.

AndrewS said:

All those Chinese conscripts are actually volunteers who enter a 2-year conscription system.

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Yes, but in the context above we are talking about civilian conscripts.

Can I remind people here that this is a discussion for lessons learnt for China from the Ukrianian conflict, not a discussion on China's minority policies (among other things).

FriedButter said:

Yes, but in the context above we are talking about civilian conscripts.

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what do you mean by civilian conscripts and what distinguishes them from "the other conscript".

Volpler11 said:

what do you mean by civilian conscripts

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The traditional definition of a conscript. Not like there is any other meaning of “conscripts.”

Volpler11 said:

and what distinguishes them from "the other conscript".

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They aren’t conscripts. Everyone else seems to call them conscripts when they aren’t.

supersnoop said:

You guys are so high tech with your drones everywhere to take out ATGM teams.

By now PLA must have detailed maps of every nook of Taiwan. If Apple/Google can do this, certainly it's not beyond the capability of the PLA.

Taiwan has Javelin, AT-4, M72, APILAS, and TOW. All of these have known flight patterns (direct fire, top attack), aiming requirements, and max range. I think the longest range is Javelin at ~4km.

It will be known in advance where the optimum firing positions are within the city for all types. Of course this would exclude hasty positions, but which buildings to avoid are obvious. Recon forces/Spec Ops will operate forward of the main landing party and verify certain forward targets in the expected direction of advance. You don't need drones for any of this.

ATGM teams holed up in buildings don't require fancy drones. PLL-05 is amphibious and most likely be part of the landing element. It basically made for this. It outranges any ATGM and can fire indirect or direct. Using Beidou or laser, you can call for fire and blow out any ATGM team without waiting for drones.

Drones would be useful for real time surveillance of the changing battlefield conditions and tracking movements of elements. Also would be useful for mopping up insurgents. However, you don't need fancy swarms or anything, just smart warfighting is enough.

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Yeah that's after you've already landed. I would use uav and drones to clear space for landing.. that's the risky part and can save lives using mass drones. Go from naval blockade and then use drones to make space for landing. After landing china can do whatever, its just mop up.

Guancha interviewed Jin Chanrong (金灿荣), a professor in Renmin university and an expert on Sino-US relationships.

Prof. Jin believes that the west, the US in particular, might have determined to punish China for not siding with them on Russia. The Ukraine conflict is going to cause major disruptions to the global food supply. That in turn can start turmoil and unrest in the global south. It will not be good for BRI.

Some reckless politicians in the US might want to take chance amid the chaos and push Taiwan to cross the red lines. He warns to not overlook the possibility that these bandits, and their lap dogs in Taiwan, will miscalculate.

To prepare for the worst, Prof. Jin thinks that China must quickly raise annual military expenditure to 2% of its GDP.

The result of a recent poll in the US says that some US public are more willing to risk a war with China than with Russia. Using it as an example to show that many Americans are underestimating China's capacity as a nuclear power, Jin urges that China must ditch the strategy of 韬光养晦 (keep a low profile to bide one's time) and start playing its cards in the clear to the US. He considers 韬光养晦 only a special case for short term challenges and the time for it has long gone. China has already become too big for the corner.

In his opinion, it'd be foolish to think that, in dealing with the US, being purposefully unintelligible can conceal China's strategic and long term objectives. China must state clearly its intents and interests to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation by the US, or any other foreign power.

SanWenYu said:

To prepare for the worst, Prof. Jin thinks that China must quickly raise annual military expenditure to 2% of its GDP.

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Ain't happening..

If after all that has happened in the past 3 years didn't drastically change military spending which remained so pathetically low, nothing is going to change it.