Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

KYli said:

China should wait but the US might not let China wait.

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This is by far the best news for a quick and successful unification war, if the momentum of popular opinion in the US, the West and in Taiwan Island can keep this triumphalism up. Woo, I can't wait!

I'd love these hyped up triumphalism which thinks that they can defend themselves against the PLA and Chinese MIC with just MANPADS and Javelins. I'd love to see them putting their hopes in a Ukraine style defense. That will be a great playground for PLA to try out their PGMs and other munitions. And trust me, PLA could put down 200 times more munitions per unit area in Taiwan with ease: China's economy is more than 10 times that of Russia, and Taiwan's land area is 17 times smaller than Ukraine. It will be beautiful day for war.

Although, I would certainly prefer such war NEVER happens.

Arnies said:

From a stragetic point of view China won't charge at Taiwan before dealing with India as India is the key to everything for China and they also need India out of the way in order so that fortunes could change for them.. For the arrival of the sino era.. This frees up China entirely and there is not this thing that could be used against them as threat.

Hence the Chinese army takes India as security chellenge. This also automatically benefits Pakistan as this will also entirely free them up and go elsewhere.

Sino-Pak offense on India is of outmost need.. Conflict could be over much sooner then realized but the only issue is that China has things to lose and won't likely go thru with it until the world economy crashes or something but we must be prepared for the endgame once that economy bubble crashes and goes it will be 100-meter dash towards India

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China does not have beef with India, despite the latter's repeated attempts at provocation.

AssassinsMace said:

If the US is not directly getting involved in Ukraine because they're afraid of being targeted directly by Russia, they won't be coming to India's defense. You only see this attention on Ukraine is because it's a white country. Americans aren't going to sacrifice their lives for Indians especially where Indians are the ones to start provocations like the 1962 war.

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Exactly. They are preparing them to become sacrificial lambs and at low cost hence they are expandables but aside from that taking them out of the playing board would fix the dynamic.

Turning back the clock in the area.. With a clasical sino civilization that have lived in the area peacefully and proud with other neighbouring brotherly civilizations in a peaceful environment for 1000s of years without having a self-defeatist element in the area.. Without puppet elements

Arnies said:

Exactly. They are preparing them to become sacrificial lambs and at low cost hence they are expandables but aside from that taking them out of the playing board would fix the dynamic.

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Indians are playing both sides. They got burned before with Anglo-Saxons playing 'divide-and-conquer' which lead to British Raj Indian empire, so Indians won't volunteer to be frontline guineapigs to uphold Western hegemony, they are playing both sides for their own interests (e.g., signing up for SCO, while flirting with QUAD).

You saw how pissed the US/West was when India refused to condemn Russia. To Western eyes, Indians are unreliable, but useful idiots to parade "brotherhood of democrazies" rhetoric that is ultimately a self-circle jerk to make them feel better.

Phead128 said:

Indians are playing both sides. They got burned before with Anglo-Saxons playing 'divide-and-conquer' which lead to British Raj Indian empire, so Indians won't volunteer to be frontline guineapigs to uphold Western hegemony, they are playing both sides for their own interests (e.g., signing up for SCO, while flirting with QUAD).

You saw how pissed the US/West was when India refused to condemn Russia. To Western eyes, Indians are unreliable, but useful idiots to parade "brotherhood of democrazies" rhetoric that is ultimately a self-circle jerk to make them feel better.

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I don't think they are playing both sides but playing one side and you can guess which side

Jingle Bells said:

This is by far the best news for a quick and successful unification war, if the momentum of popular opinion in the US, the West and in Taiwan Island can keep this triumphalism up. Woo, I can't wait!

I'd love these hyped up triumphalism which thinks that they can defend themselves against the PLA and Chinese MIC with just MANPADS and Javelins. I'd love to see them putting their hopes in a Ukraine style defense. That will be a great playground for PLA to try out their PGMs and other munitions. And trust me, PLA could put down 200 times more munitions per unit area in Taiwan with ease: China's economy is more than 10 times that of Russia, and Taiwan's land area is 17 times smaller than Ukraine. It will be beautiful day for war.

Although, I would certainly prefer such war NEVER happens.

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Let's hope it'll never come to that. I don't want our fellow Chinese and human beings in Taiwan, not to mention the military people that will lose their lives if such an unfortunate event unfolds. But if they press for a war then have mercy on us all.

KYli said:

China should wait but the US might not let China wait.

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You could example release the North Koreans on them as they will flatline the Island state beyond recognition if the need for that arises

Bellum_Romanum said:

Let's hope it'll never come to that. I don't want our fellow Chinese and human beings in Taiwan, not to mention the military people that will lose their lives if such an unfortunate event unfolds. But if they press for a war then have mercy on us all.

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This is unlike previous you which is somewhat humorous but they are far better armed then the Ukrianians the Taiwanese but that doesn't mean it won't fall

Arnies said:

This is unlike previous you which is somewhat humorous but they are far better armed then the Ukrianians the Taiwanese but that doesn't mean it won't fall

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Mainland's military power superiority over Taiwan is much greater than Russia's military superiority over Ukraine, considering the type of war they will be fighting. Russia has a lack of material military resources as well as manpower, against Ukraine which is the largest country in Europe, other than Russia.

1. Ukraine is about 17 times the size of Taiwan. Taiwan is about 0.36% the size of Mainland, Ukraine is about 3.5% of Russia.
2. Ukraine's population is nearly 30% that of Russia. Taiwan is about 1.6% of Mainland Population.
3. Ukraine GDP is about 10% that of Russia GDP. Taiwan is about only 3.7% of mainland GDP.

In an air war, China and Russia will both gain air superiority, because their air forces are both much stronger than the opponent. However, the amount of PGM's and missiles in China's arsenal is MUCH MUCH larger than Russia as a result of China's much larger budget. But in terms of their opponents, Taiwan's size is much much smaller than Ukraine, which means that even with same intensity, the PLA will be able to drop at least 1 to 2 orders of magnitude more munitions on Taiwan per unit area, and with a much larger percentage of these will be PGMs compare to Russia.

This is not even counting in the fact that with J-16D and a whole lot of other specialized electromagnetic warfare equipment the PLA put into active service, PLA will be a lot more effective in suppressing and destroying air defense capabilities on Taiwan than Russia could do in Ukraine. Of all the aspects in which the Ukrainian was able to resist Russians to a certain degree, pretty much all of these are weaknesses that Russia has but China does not.

China needs to urgently improve and install active protection systems on their tanks and APC.

The current known system GL-5 in China only have a 360 x 20 degree coverage. Pretty useless against top down attack like Javelin and urban war setting.


Areas to improve are to

1.extend the coverage to all round coverage.
2. Deal with kenetic rounds.
3. Possibly install it on amphibious landing vehicles which I think will be challenging and never been done before.