Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Which is why I've said many time that China needs to be in a position where nothing the enemy does can change the outcome, whether the conflict is short or protracted. China won't start the fight but must decisively finish it.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Taiwanese like other US Asian allies look to the US fighting their wars for them. They're not in the same league.
Ukraine is not a model for Taiwan because Ukraine is a European country with leftover Soviet equipment that was built to fight a total war. Ukraine was one of the most independent Soviet republics, had its own UN seat, and was considered almost as core as Russia itself hence why they were given so much power.
Taiwan on the other hand buys weapons like 3rd world military dictatorships - mostly because they're shiny, have a slick ad and impress El Presidente.
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I agree China should still be exceptionally prepared for every contingency if China ever becomes weak again and US/Taiwan takes advantage of a weak China (like NATO did with a weak Russia)
But so long as China is rising and still has decades to economic runway to become by far largest economy, it's best to not let provocative salami-slicing action from racist shit-stirring big bully cause disruption or delay your rise. Even a formal embassy level change is really minor in grand scheme of things. So long as US does not station troops/bases/nukes on Taiwan and no formal treaty alliance with Taiwan, then status quo is more than sufficient. China is no rush, we have nothing to prove to others. US would love to trip up China's rise though. The next few decades is critical for Chinese GDP.
Which Chinese conventional rocket missile is the most similar to Iskander?
DF-11
Don't agree with such mentality. China should fight Americans in every way and every step and let them paid and felt the pain. If you made it too easy for them, then they would want more and more til your red line is crossed.
Provocative salami-slicing is to test China's resolve. If China shows weakness, then the US would pounce. Never make it easy for them even if China had to pay certain prices. It is like the trade war, made it painful for the US to prevent further escalation. Never capitulated. stay firm and fight back smartly and don't let the US provocation derailed your plans and roadmap. Fight smartly like in HK using HKPF to put down the riots not sending in paramilitary and use NSL to checkmate so China doesn't need to directly involve in decision making.
So hypothetically, if US establishes formal embassy level relationship, so China go to war with Taiwan and risk economic disruptions? I think so long as there is no nukes/troops/bases/alliance, who cares. We can't be going to war over every single salami slicing provocation, it's exactly what US wants while it's still economically and militarily dominant and China still growing.
I agree China should push back and stand firm to not show weakness, maybe sometimes bluster with war, but war should be the very last resort. I don't want to see China get sanctioned like Russia. Best wait to be economically mature and developed first.
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