Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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Russian drones apparently took out Ukrainian S-300s.
Su-25 are used by both sides (Russians more, understandably, since they have air superiority) because jets have way more payload and range.
One thing that is going to be a problem Russia: the presence of NATO EW planes gives Ukrainian drones hugely extended range since the control towers can use the planes to act as a signal relay. Typically TB-2 drones are limited by line of sight command but with an airborne relay they have huge range. If they were using TB-2 drones with only the built in command center, they'd have to set up within 150 km of the Russian line.
China has far more drones than Russia and in particular... Taiwan isn't big enough to take advantage of extended range drones themselves, but Taiwan is also close enough where drones can directly hit them taking off from the mainland...
Wing Loong II/GJ-2 has a line-of-communications range of 200km (Baidu encyclopedia uses the term 视距链路半径 visual linkage radius), which would indeed cover Taiwan
We make better drones than the Turks okay. TB2 is at most at medium level Chinese drone level
Most of what I've thought so far in regards to this conflict has been covered, but the aspect in which I feel deserves attention is one away from a pure military capability standpoint.
Various users have stated the sanctions Russia is/about to endure as expected, as would China. The narrative goes that Russia is less-able to endure such sanctions due to various socioeconomic and political reasons, which I won't rehearse. That being said, the US imposing such sanctions on behalf of NATO rather than through cumbersome diplomatic means (essentially via the EU) to me highlight the growing rift between US realpolitik and EU members view of their own concerns.
The point I'm trying to make is how quickly Russia has been "disconnected" from the rest of the world, having been done so by a US administration so willing to weaponise it's trade mechanisms and corporations in an age of social activism and hybrid war. The US won't put a single troop on the line for the Ukraine, but they're willing to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian by supplying them with arms through whatever proxies.
Towards China - plenty of industries have been under sanction for a while now, with the US directive essentially being 'don't let them learn how to make things' essentially, everything from the failed Motor Sich purchase back in the day to French reactors at Hinkley, Dutch lithography etc. US won't make it easy for China to become a challenger. Yet many industries targeted have done the opposite and come out more strongly in those fields. Sanctions are no longer as effective as some would have you believe.
Back in the late 90's/early 00's, China was a strategic competitor. Now they are an existential threat. Perhaps this entire Russian thing is a way for Russia to bleed and suffer while the US sits back and prepares for an ongoing future conflict with China? It'd be good for the US if Russia really did exhaust itself so much on its Ukraine expedition, no?
My thoughts.
Various users have stated the sanctions Russia is/about to endure as expected, as would China. The narrative goes that Russia is less-able to endure such sanctions due to various socioeconomic and political reasons, which I won't rehearse. That being said, the US imposing such sanctions on behalf of NATO rather than through cumbersome diplomatic means (essentially via the EU) to me highlight the growing rift between US realpolitik and EU members view of their own concerns.
The point I'm trying to make is how quickly Russia has been "disconnected" from the rest of the world, having been done so by a US administration so willing to weaponise it's trade mechanisms and corporations in an age of social activism and hybrid war. The US won't put a single troop on the line for the Ukraine, but they're willing to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian by supplying them with arms through whatever proxies.
Towards China - plenty of industries have been under sanction for a while now, with the US directive essentially being 'don't let them learn how to make things' essentially, everything from the failed Motor Sich purchase back in the day to French reactors at Hinkley, Dutch lithography etc. US won't make it easy for China to become a challenger. Yet many industries targeted have done the opposite and come out more strongly in those fields. Sanctions are no longer as effective as some would have you believe.
Back in the late 90's/early 00's, China was a strategic competitor. Now they are an existential threat. Perhaps this entire Russian thing is a way for Russia to bleed and suffer while the US sits back and prepares for an ongoing future conflict with China? It'd be good for the US if Russia really did exhaust itself so much on its Ukraine expedition, no?
My thoughts.
The US economy is in shambles. All you need to do is visit the US to figure that out. They are in a similar state to back in the Great Depression. They spent themselves into a hole with the wars in the Middle East. Then you had the 2008 Financial Crisis and now COVID-19 to finish the rest. They still have deep reserves of course but the US will have to pull back for half a decade if not a decade to lick its wounds and recover. It will feast on Europe's corpse to do it if it needs to and it is. They are pulling out all stops on Russia and trying to knock them down because they have little chance against China if Russia isn't either on their side or at best neutral. Russia was the easiest of the two to knock out.
Also do not believe the nonsense you sometimes hear about how democracies do not go to war against each other. France, the UK, and Germany were all democracies back in WWI. The war still happened. You hear a lot of claims that Germany was not a democracy but it really is not true. Germany had a parliamentary monarchy just like the UK. It is just the nature of empires not to get along with each other.
The largest period of relative peace in Europe was the "Concert of Europe" when the major empires defined spheres of influence and kept to these. WWI started because of a conflict between the Austrians and Russians about who should have control over Serbia and it spiraled as the rest piled on.
If you read Mein Kampf the Nazis were not interested in good long term relationships with the Soviets because they knew with the population and resources they had available, if they also got the technological base, then the Soviets would be basically unstoppable. You can bet the US thinks much the same about China right now. It is just the nature of empire.
Also do not believe the nonsense you sometimes hear about how democracies do not go to war against each other. France, the UK, and Germany were all democracies back in WWI. The war still happened. You hear a lot of claims that Germany was not a democracy but it really is not true. Germany had a parliamentary monarchy just like the UK. It is just the nature of empires not to get along with each other.
The largest period of relative peace in Europe was the "Concert of Europe" when the major empires defined spheres of influence and kept to these. WWI started because of a conflict between the Austrians and Russians about who should have control over Serbia and it spiraled as the rest piled on.
If you read Mein Kampf the Nazis were not interested in good long term relationships with the Soviets because they knew with the population and resources they had available, if they also got the technological base, then the Soviets would be basically unstoppable. You can bet the US thinks much the same about China right now. It is just the nature of empire.
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Remember that the USA is in denial that it is an empire
Given that China has a larger economy than the US in terms of actual output (as measured by PPP), how can the smaller US economy be expected to effectively sanction China?
In terms of the manufacturing sector, my guestimate is that China is roughly twice the size of the US as of today.
Eh more sanctions from the US will still be able to hurt China, but it's very much a double edged sword though (honestly if sanctions gets 'out of control' I could see it end up causing civil war in the US lol).
One other lesson is that traditional anti-air systems like S-300/400 and Patriot seem pretty helpless against cheap, low flying drones. Their radars are not optimized for low flying objects with small RCS. Defense against drones and loitering munition should include dedicate radar/countermeasures.
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