Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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lcloo
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PLA currently is a volunteer army, though there is a law on conscription but it was rarely applied. There won't likely be an ending of conscription law. Historically, war in China can cause deaths of more than a million of soldiers, as in WW2 and Chinese Civil war, conscription law may be needed to keep the strength in number of soldiers.
However, in practice, conscription was seldom carried out as there are more volunteers to meet the recruitment needs. Even in Chinese civil war, PLA was a volunteer force. And in future, it is also unlikely to see conscription to be carried out in meaningful numbers unless it is a huge war like WW3.
Anecdote time
The first time I visited Beijing, our tour guide was very patriotic, Chairman Mao quotes, Premier Zhou stories, etc. He became a tour guide after being rejected from the army for poor eyesight. He said the recruiter doubted he could accurately fire a rifle. At the time we also thought there was compulsory service, but he said no and the military is quite choosy. Probably now they have to try harder with more civilian opportunities.
Getting into the army and getting promoted as a cadre ("提干") was and is a way for youth in the rural areas to gain social mobility, so of course there aren't a shortage of people enlisting.
Yes, a defacto volunteer army with a conscription style system for the enlisted.
There is a large pool of soldiers who just left military service or are currently in training, so they can expand forces very quickly.
Wage levels for enlisted would have to be increased for a fully professional army, whereas 2 year conscripts can be paid less.
There's the social engineering and social mobility aspect as well.
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Russia only has 1 year of service for conscripts which is far too short.
I would also say that in a defensive war, conscripts will definitely fight, but not necessarily in an offensive war.
In China's case, it is a 2 year conscription period and everyone in Chinese society has already been indoctrinated on Taiwan.
Given that the vast majority of the Taiwanese population lives within 30km of the Eastern coastline, I doubt vehicle breakdowns will be a huge problem anyway.
Roughly one quarter of Russian armed forces is made out of conscripts. The 170-190 thousand troops that are inside Ukraine now are ground troops. Most are Army troops, but some are Airborne, and a small number is likely Naval infantry. Those 3, when combined, have some 360 000 ground troops between them. So roughly half of Russian total ground troop numbers are inside Ukraine.
In other words, there's very little need to use a lot of conscripts inside Ukraine now. Various soldiers on salary should be plentiful enough to fill out most of the positions. Though possibly a relatively small number of conscripts is in there. But If Russia will want to send more troops in, then more and more conscripts will have to make up the numbers of those additional forces.
In other words, there's very little need to use a lot of conscripts inside Ukraine now. Various soldiers on salary should be plentiful enough to fill out most of the positions. Though possibly a relatively small number of conscripts is in there. But If Russia will want to send more troops in, then more and more conscripts will have to make up the numbers of those additional forces.
Some major take aways:
Islets such as Penghu and Matsu: I have argued before that these islets must be occupied before a move on Taiwan proper, some people didn't agree and seem to think that they can do some fancy "island hop" straight to taiwan. well if you still believe that now you'd be pretty slow. not only are those island a threat to the attacking force, even if the attacking force squeezed through, there would still be serious disruptions to follow-on force and logistics.
UAV's: very useful should be employed liberally.
air assault via helicopter: still a viable tactical option but can only achieve limited objectives. Taiwan straight in a way is more favourable than ukraine for air assaults. this is because the majority of the transit will be over water, so there is no chance of ambush by MANPADS. Hostomel experience shows that air assaults can still work but don't expect it to be the decisive blow.
Islets such as Penghu and Matsu: I have argued before that these islets must be occupied before a move on Taiwan proper, some people didn't agree and seem to think that they can do some fancy "island hop" straight to taiwan. well if you still believe that now you'd be pretty slow. not only are those island a threat to the attacking force, even if the attacking force squeezed through, there would still be serious disruptions to follow-on force and logistics.
UAV's: very useful should be employed liberally.
air assault via helicopter: still a viable tactical option but can only achieve limited objectives. Taiwan straight in a way is more favourable than ukraine for air assaults. this is because the majority of the transit will be over water, so there is no chance of ambush by MANPADS. Hostomel experience shows that air assaults can still work but don't expect it to be the decisive blow.
Very much agreed. Kinmen and Matsu should pose little to no resistance, owing to their proximity to the mainland. Kinmen relies on the mainland for water supply, so surely there could be some bloodless way to bring them to kneel.
Penghu is a separate matter. Penghu must be taken before an amphibious attack can be launched.
UAE has operated Wing Loong II and used it to conduct strike missions. I envisage that in Taiwan scenario, the skies over Taiwan would be under UCAV coverage 24/7, armed with HJ-10s to strike at radar sites, mobile SAM and mobile anti-ship missile launchers, and to also support ground troops once they have made landfall.
The PLA should be way more advanced in the use of UCAVs as they are continuing to receive feedback from their clients in the MENA region and also the use of UCAV is very much part of Chinese doctrine now. Not to mention they are the largest (?) manufacturers of UCAVs.
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