Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Getting some budget hikes lately (more nukes, subs, more J-20s), though long term money spent raising birth rates would be an auto-win against Taiwan/South Korea and Japan.
I see a lot of discussion on learning from what the Russians have been doing. But there is a lot to learn from the Ukrainians as well. For example, portable ATGM/AAGM proved to be very effective. Given the difficulties of sending large quantities of armors, ATGM/AAGM can help the PLA paratroopers.
How many Taiwan armors out there?
not enough to make it worthwhile for the PLA paratroopers to be armed with a lot of HJ-12, i guess you can have one guy in the squad carrying one unit.
by the time paratroopers drop in, PLA should be able to make quick work of any remaining tw armored units simply with heavy attack helicoptors, loitering munitions and air dropped light tanks.
best way to take out enemy armor i think is definitely being air borne at stand off range, second best would be sitting comfortably inside a heavier armored unit, last resort would be to go out there in the open wearing Kevlar armed with HJ-12...
4 armor brigades and 3 mechanized infantry brigades. Armor has 5 tank companies, mech inf has 4. Each company has 14 tanks.
So (4*5+3*4)*14=448
Supposedly many units are not fully fitted out so the actually number may be less.
People talking about upping defense spending and expanding nuke arsenal, something China is already doing. But IMO the biggest lesson so far seems that China needs to abandon its current, outdated nuclear weapons policy. Committing to no first use in the current geopolitical environment is beyond foolish.
Russia's nuclear threats work because it has an aggressive nuclear weapons policy: Russia will use nukes against vast convention attacks. This simple stance basically prevented any idea of a NATO intervention.
If China doesn't commit to escalating to nukes if attacked conventionally, especially in a Taiwan scenario, it's basically inviting U.S. intervention if something goes wrong during an invasion.
Russia's nuclear threats work because it has an aggressive nuclear weapons policy: Russia will use nukes against vast convention attacks. This simple stance basically prevented any idea of a NATO intervention.
If China doesn't commit to escalating to nukes if attacked conventionally, especially in a Taiwan scenario, it's basically inviting U.S. intervention if something goes wrong during an invasion.
Idk how true it is but I did read that some or many vehicles aren’t fully manned due to lack of crew members. Tho I can’t imagine morale is all that great for tank crews in an event of a war. It’s pretty much a steel coffin.
when even the most conservative estimates place PLA nukes ~1500, then china can adjust its policy to be more aggressive.
lcloo
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460 M-60A3 TTF MBT
450 CM-11 (Taiwan assembled M-60 chasis with M-48 turret) MBT
100 CM-12 (M-48A) tank
100 M-41 Light tank
400+ CM-42 8 wheel IFV/APC/Light tank etc
1,000+ CM-21 (variants of M-113 IFV/APC)
300 V-150 wheel armored vehicle
7,000+ Humvee
60 M-110A2 203mm SPA
260+ M-109A2/A5/6 155mm SPA.
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