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Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Didn’t America do that with Japan during WWII. China is not Japan. But Japan had the best navy, experienced and battle hardened army, and controlled half of Pacific.
They have to come 100km close to mainland China, and with their forces already scattered all around the world, Europe, the Middle East, etc. Not to mention how they also had to finance and provide weapons against Russia. That also means war with two different superpowers at the same time.
It's like a fairy tale dream that they defeat China if China decides to take back Taiwan. I don't understand how could anyone even believe this. Just China's industrial might would outproduce them in weaponry around 10 times. There is around a 10% chance they defeat China.
I think the most likely scenario is that Americans would genocide Taiwan, just like they did with Ukraine, in the logic "If I can't have it, then no one will". But that is in a way a fitting destiny for Taiwanese, and Ukrainians, to be killed by their own masters. I don't feel sorry for them.
Unlike the WWII, the invention of the missile changes the form of sea battle. countries with more land depth have much advantage than who have small land or no land but only navy.
The US has no colony adjoin the Asia continent is the biggest disadvantage. So they want conquer Korea and Vietnam but both lose the war. Japan is island type country. SK is a peninsula adjacent to NK only.
The US has no colony adjoin the Asia continent is the biggest disadvantage. So they want conquer Korea and Vietnam but both lose the war. Japan is island type country. SK is a peninsula adjacent to NK only.
That's a pretty far history to go back to... Well, I guess maybe some Russian officials were also thinking WW2 successes when they gave their orders.
Unlike Japan, China isn't engaged in a losing war with the majority of its forces on the Asian mainland. But perhaps more importantly, they have 1.5x gdp and 4x population vs America. When American fought Japan, those odds were somewhere around the opposite, and America still needed major help.
Back during WW2, the US had an actual industrial base that could support its operations. That's how they defeated Japan alongside nuclear bombs. Today, they shut nearly all of their factories down. Their industrial outputs and exports are nothing for a country of that size.
They don't have nearly enough factories, factory equipment, skilled workers, and workers willing to work in those faculties, for a country of that size. Not to mention the overall population of the US vs China. They have the most lawyers on the planet.
That can't be turned back on probably in 5 years, and in wartime, it's even more impossible. America simply decided to print the money out of thin air and run its economy like that and not be an industrial, working nation anymore. They openly admit it.
Let's just take shipyards and shipbuilding, today China is the world's biggest shipbuilding nation, America is not even in the top 10, and one shipyard in China has the size of all US shipyards combined. Even in peacetime, China produces five times more military equipment than the US.
Imagine if the war starts and that 5 times more, turns into 10 times more or even further than that. 1.4 million people's efforts combined.
The US learned this hard lesson now against Russia which they can't outproduce with all of their vassal countries. Not to mention outproducing China.
They could try to choke China's access to foreign natural resources and materials in a case of war for sure, but China has Russia and extremely large reserves of natural materials that no one could even fathom how large they are, even in their state-run companies.
That’s definitely true. But how confident are you that Chinese shipyards, factories, and key military production facilities will not come under missile strikes once this war starts.
Continuous disruption of Chinese production capacities is one of the first things they will do. No point in going into this war if Chinese military can just rebuild in 6 months.
US has less bombers than Russia. Shanghai is as far away from Okinawa as Lviv is from Belgorod. And Shanghai is about as low strategic depth as you can get, besides Taipei and Gaoxiong I guess, but those are not locations where PRC will be initially making weapons from at least.
Tldr: they can cause a small bit of disruption to infrastructure only on a couple of coastal cities, but they're better off shooting what they have only at military targets.
So in terms of any military production besides navy capital ships, their ability to disrupt is 0 or near 0.
I don't think China can build capital vessels while its in the middle of being invaded, ostentibly because it takes at least a year to build one during which the ship will be highly visible and won't be moving at all. Even a saboteur with a bomb vest could damage it. Likewise, China would be wise to lob a few HGVs at CVNs under construction in Newport news.
Instead, China would focus on smaller vessels that take maximum a month to build when fully rushing the process.
China is the world's factory which has around 30% of the world's manufacturing output.
They can't destroy how much China can build. Americans would experience Hell in that war.
A lot of American war mongers are dreaming of bombing and blockading China, like what the US did with Japan in WW2. But China today is not Imperial Japan of WW2. China is not a narrow island nation like Japan. It is a continent-sized country, with vast inland areas. Furthermore, China is the confirmed no.1 industrial power in the world today, not the US. It is impossible for the US to shutdown China conventionally. Especially when China enters into a war economy.
Yes, obviously China's naval production will be disrupted with waves of missiles and airstrikes from stand-off ranges. But American bombers and naval vessels will still have to approach dangerously deep within Chinese A2AD zones. The Shanghai and Guangzhou shipyards would be relatively easier to reach for US forces, but the Chinese A2AD sphere still extends vastly out of these cities. It will ensure a heavy price for American naval and air operations. The shipyards in Dalian and Bohai will be even harder to approach, because US forces will have to cross a very hot Bohai Sea to reach those targets. There is also the inland shipyard in Wuhan, which is even harder to reach. So, while Chinese naval production can be distrupted, it is not as easy as the American warmongers are making it out to be.
Other Chinese war production like warplanes, land armaments, and equipment are even more difficult for the US to target. The major aviation factories are in Chengdu, Shenyang, and Xi'an, very far from the coast. China's main area for the production for heavy land armaments is located in Inner Mongolia. As far as the US is concerned, trying to strike that area with air or naval assets is practically suicidal.
In a conventional war, it is practically impossible for the US to shut down China like it did to Japan in WW2. China will not nearly be as resource-starved as Japan in the late WW2, thanks to good relations with Russia and Central Asia. Plus China is magnitudes much larger than Japan in land area. The US would have to essentially expend all of it's readily available long-ranged ammunition in the Pacific theater, just trying to strike at the vast industrial coastal cities of China. And even that will not completely shut down Chinese industries. China, in a wartime-mode frenzy can quickly rebuild. So any damage sustained is going to be temporary.
I'm not overly concerned about China defending itself from conventional US attacks. I'm much more concerned about the risk of the US opting for nuclear strikes. Because if the US loses thousands of men, and unacceptable quantities of warships and airplanes. I don't trust the unhinged American leadership to not consider nuclear retaliation on Chinese industrial zones, which are in the major cities. Especially the more crazed Republican-aligned warmongers, who think that nuclear war with China is 'winnable'. That is why, China's nuclear deterrence must play a much bigger role now, more than ever.
Yes, obviously China's naval production will be disrupted with waves of missiles and airstrikes from stand-off ranges. But American bombers and naval vessels will still have to approach dangerously deep within Chinese A2AD zones. The Shanghai and Guangzhou shipyards would be relatively easier to reach for US forces, but the Chinese A2AD sphere still extends vastly out of these cities. It will ensure a heavy price for American naval and air operations. The shipyards in Dalian and Bohai will be even harder to approach, because US forces will have to cross a very hot Bohai Sea to reach those targets. There is also the inland shipyard in Wuhan, which is even harder to reach. So, while Chinese naval production can be distrupted, it is not as easy as the American warmongers are making it out to be.
Other Chinese war production like warplanes, land armaments, and equipment are even more difficult for the US to target. The major aviation factories are in Chengdu, Shenyang, and Xi'an, very far from the coast. China's main area for the production for heavy land armaments is located in Inner Mongolia. As far as the US is concerned, trying to strike that area with air or naval assets is practically suicidal.
In a conventional war, it is practically impossible for the US to shut down China like it did to Japan in WW2. China will not nearly be as resource-starved as Japan in the late WW2, thanks to good relations with Russia and Central Asia. Plus China is magnitudes much larger than Japan in land area. The US would have to essentially expend all of it's readily available long-ranged ammunition in the Pacific theater, just trying to strike at the vast industrial coastal cities of China. And even that will not completely shut down Chinese industries. China, in a wartime-mode frenzy can quickly rebuild. So any damage sustained is going to be temporary.
I'm not overly concerned about China defending itself from conventional US attacks. I'm much more concerned about the risk of the US opting for nuclear strikes. Because if the US loses thousands of men, and unacceptable quantities of warships and airplanes. I don't trust the unhinged American leadership to not consider nuclear retaliation on Chinese industrial zones, which are in the major cities. Especially the more crazed Republican-aligned warmongers, who think that nuclear war with China is 'winnable'. That is why, China's nuclear deterrence must play a much bigger role now, more than ever.
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