They are still unaware of what lies ahead when the dollar loses its reserve currency status. It will be worse than apocalyptic movies.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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They are still unaware of what lies ahead when the dollar loses its reserve currency status. It will be worse than apocalyptic movies.
Less than 18 months left, Tik Tok Temu clock
Going from shopping like a billionaire to living as a homeless in a tent city
Is that the full 'peace plan' the media was hyping up? It seems that China is just reiterate the same position on the conflict for the nth time.
solarz
Brigadier
I was talking by about using the blockade as a proportional retaliatory measure against American provocation.
Whether it will lead to offensive military actions against TW depends on the American reaction.
If, hypothetically, the US responds by mobilizing all its fleets and sending them toward China, then we can forget about Taiwan because the PLA will need to focus on defeating the US first.
If, on the other hand, the US shows no serious effort at mobilizing but continues to goad TW into declaring independence, then AR can be launched.
However, for that very reason, installing a blockade means unless TW would not declare independence unless the US was mobilizing. Therefore, in this scenario, TW's only remaining option would be to surrender and reunite peacefully.
solarz
Brigadier
I imagine sanctions would be applied as appropriate along with the creeping blockade.
If the US decides to intervene and break China's blockade on Taiwan, then it is a real possibility that ROCA would join in the action and fight against the PLA.
When that happens, the PLA might as well blow the shit out of ROCA and US forces stationed across the WestPac. The AR of Taiwan would have to be put on the backburner.
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Blockade ain't gonna work on Taiwan without ROCAF and AD taken out.
That just help them buying time for USN, USMC to gather their force and breakthrough. PLA need to disable ROC capabilities and their infrastructure like electricity and communication first before they gonna start blockade the island. They need to make US consider about the cost of intervene in AR.
Also, fully capable ROC gonna be a problem for PLAN when they have to deal with USN.
That just help them buying time for USN, USMC to gather their force and breakthrough. PLA need to disable ROC capabilities and their infrastructure like electricity and communication first before they gonna start blockade the island. They need to make US consider about the cost of intervene in AR.
Also, fully capable ROC gonna be a problem for PLAN when they have to deal with USN.
lcloo
Captain
Geography and size of arable land in Taiwan is one important point to be focus when planning for the AR.
Taiwan is a potato shape island about 380KM long and 140KM at widest point and about 1,000Km of shoreline, with arable land and plain mainly on the West coasts and rugged mountains in central and East. The West coast plains have maximum width of about 45 to 50km, and majorirty of Taiwan's population are staying here. This is also where Taiwan's crops and industries are located.
Thus the main PLA objective would be to take over the West coast plain, and pockets of flat lands in the East, i.e. Yilan, Hualien, Taitung and Checheng/Hengchun. The rugged moutains are sparesely inhabitated, lack crop and industrial resources and thus can be left for second phase of mopping up whatever left of RoC that are still fighting.
Blockading 1,000km of Taiwan island shoreline with hundreds of surface combat ships and submarines, and hundreds of CAP fighter jets should seal the island water-tight, the only probable infiltration into the island would be small units of SEAL team but they are too small numerically to re-supply the RoC troops nor alter battle situations, except to smuggle out the leadership of Taiwan pro-independence.
PLA could either blockade the island and starve them to internal revolt and surrender, or bloakade and attack on Day One on all fronts to take over the plains, and mop up the mountains at later phase of war.
Topography of Taiwain, shows plains and mountains.
Population density and distribution
West coast plains of Taiwan
The rugged mountains in central and east of Taiwan.
Taiwan is a potato shape island about 380KM long and 140KM at widest point and about 1,000Km of shoreline, with arable land and plain mainly on the West coasts and rugged mountains in central and East. The West coast plains have maximum width of about 45 to 50km, and majorirty of Taiwan's population are staying here. This is also where Taiwan's crops and industries are located.
Thus the main PLA objective would be to take over the West coast plain, and pockets of flat lands in the East, i.e. Yilan, Hualien, Taitung and Checheng/Hengchun. The rugged moutains are sparesely inhabitated, lack crop and industrial resources and thus can be left for second phase of mopping up whatever left of RoC that are still fighting.
Blockading 1,000km of Taiwan island shoreline with hundreds of surface combat ships and submarines, and hundreds of CAP fighter jets should seal the island water-tight, the only probable infiltration into the island would be small units of SEAL team but they are too small numerically to re-supply the RoC troops nor alter battle situations, except to smuggle out the leadership of Taiwan pro-independence.
PLA could either blockade the island and starve them to internal revolt and surrender, or bloakade and attack on Day One on all fronts to take over the plains, and mop up the mountains at later phase of war.
Topography of Taiwain, shows plains and mountains.
Population density and distribution
West coast plains of Taiwan
The rugged mountains in central and east of Taiwan.
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They still have sheer numbers over peacetime China, and not by just a small amount either.
America has in most items 2-3 times more, in personnel around 1.5 times more depending on branch, and in some planes 3-4 times more. These items are all usually roughly comparable in quality to PLA ones, although there are unique PLA capabilities in drones and missiles, while US is ahead on putting a manned large stealth bomber in service.
Although if they attack in Asia, all of those numbers need to be bottlenecked through a few areas.
China should always assume all the enemies will be on the move and attack. Doing otherwise is irresponsible.
Aside from initially defending Taiwan from enemy landing, the role of the PLA needs to be holding the choke points, that is, China's integrated air defense zones, the first island chain and the SCS.
That will buy time for China to switch to war production, and eventually acquire the numbers it needs for a counteroffensive.
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