Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Philister

Philister

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Franklin said:
The most important lesson from the Russo-Ukraine War for China should be to get out of the dollar now! And this Irregardless of Taiwan.
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China is fundamentally different from Russia in this aspect , we can’t get rid of dollars ,because our goods, unlike Russia, are industrial products .And we have the most trade surplus, at least for now, there’s not much countries take money from us hence the obstacle for popularize RMB, and we can’t go for euro either, cuz we all know that EU is the most fair and reliable complex . At least in foreseeable future we will still be using dollars.
There’s a joke for that :
A:I just invested heavily in US stock market
B:But what if the US economy failed into shit?
A: It won’t
B:But what IF?
A: It would be a bargain to see such scenes with so little price
 
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enroger

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Mohsin77 said:
Update on Russia's Night Ops:

"Russian forces took control of the railway station and the port in Kherson overnight." (Source: The Guardian's map notes) Combine this with the fact that they've captured territory faster than the US in Iraq, it doesn't look like they're lacking activity at night at all.

But here's the problem for the PLA vs Taiwan scenario:

Both the PLA and Taiwan have NV capability. This raises a whole new set of problems for the infantry especially. You need IR illuminators with NVGs to aim properly. But if both sides can see each others illuminators, that changes everything... That's a whole new scenario that has never happened yet in any modern war. You basically need to remove the IR illuminator dependency if your enemy also has NVGs, otherwise you'll be more visible during the night than the day.
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The US approach is designed to fight low tech opponents. To your question one approach is to rely on gun mounted NV sight to do the fighting, with helmet mounted mono goggle for basic situation awareness. This is where I think PLA is going for with their CMOS based NV sight
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
siegecrossbow said:
Another thing I don’t think we have factored in is Taiwan’s geography, or the fact that it is an island. This means that in event of war where a no fly zone and blockade are established over and around the island, refugees cannot escape via conventional means. Whether it will lead to stiffer resistance or rapid collapse remains to be seen.
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From all indications, China wants to minimize civilian casualties in the event of an armed reunification, possibly avoid it altogether. That is, IMO, at least as important a consideration as US intervention.

This is why I believe China will precede actual military operations with economic sanctions and psy ops in order to demoralize TW resistance.

The ideal model here is the peaceful liberations of Beijing. Failing that, it will be the Shanghai model, where damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure was minimized.
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

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enroger said:
The US approach is designed to fight low tech opponents. To your question one approach is to rely on gun mounted NV sight to do the fighting, with helmet mounted mono goggle for basic situation awareness. This is where I think PLA is going for with their CMOS based NV sight
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That's what I was hinting at but it increases the cost considerably and requires re-training. All things to consider.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
FairAndUnbiased said:
if there is urban warfare it means 1. they do not care if their own home is destroyed and 2. they cannot win militarily but since they hate the enemy more than they love their own lives or property they'll fight you in the rubble.

in that case, since they've accepted their homes will be turned to rubble, just go for it.
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I suggest you read up on the battle of Shanghai in 1949 to see the PLA attitude toward civilians and civilian infrastructure.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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solarz said:
I suggest you read up on the battle of Shanghai in 1949 to see the PLA attitude toward civilians and civilian infrastructure.
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Civilians rose up, refused to allow KMT to destroy their infrastructure, and much of the demoralized KMT ran or collapsed, which avoided damage. That is very different than a situation involving entrenched extremists fighting all out with modernized Imperial Japan style tactics. Mariupol should be watched carefully.
 
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enroger

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Mohsin77 said:
That's what I was hinting at but it increases the cost considerably and requires re-training. All things to consider.
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Not necessarily, CMOS sight is way way cheaper than conventional NVG (admittedly worse performance too). And since PLA was never big on NVG previously except special forces so not much of a re-training issue there
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

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enroger said:
Not necessarily, CMOS sight is way way cheaper than conventional NVG (admittedly worse performance too). And since PLA was never big on NVG previously except special forces so not much of a re-training issue there
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NV scopes don't remove your dependence on NVGs.

You can't walk around looking through your scope all the time.

And those PLA units engaging in night ops will need to be "big on" NVGs.

Either that, or don't conduct night ops.
 
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enroger

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Mohsin77 said:
NV scopes don't remove your dependence on NVGs.

You can't walk around looking through your scope all the time.

And those PLA units engaging in night ops will need to be "big on" NVGs.

Either that, or don't conduct night ops.
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I agree, hence I said "previously". Now they're going full on NVG, everyone get one of those CMOS thingy, it remains to be seen if they'll go big on gun sight as well, which will confirm what we've been speculating
 
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