Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Vatt’ghern said:

Looking at the refugees trying to get out of Ukraine via train or via car, taiwan is an island so chances are we'll be seeing more of a Kabul 2021 airport scenario than anything else. For humane reasons, China after capturing the airports of major cities should allow an air bridge for refugees fleeing taiwan, however i can see this being abused by economic migrants looking to flee to the West, not to mention allowing criminals and fugitives to escape Chinese justice.

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Put them on ferries on the return trip and ship them to Fujian. I am not advocating for meat shields but it sure would look bad if one of these ships were attacked....
Should be plenty of accommodation etc available down in Xiamen for these refugees to wait it out in relative comfort and the language/cultural (being Hokkien) as well as plenty of Taiwanese already there to pacify some of them.

Godzilla said:

Put them on ferries on the return trip and ship them to Fujian. I am not advocating for meat shields but it sure would look bad if one of these ships were attacked....
Should be plenty of accommodation etc available down in Xiamen for these refugees to wait it out in relative comfort and the language/cultural (being Hokkien) as well as plenty of Taiwanese already there to pacify some of them.

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I agree with this plan, i don't think it's acceptable for the US (because it would be the US) to benefit from capital flight and Han Chinese high IQ immigration by instigating and fomenting war in the Taiwan strait. Taiwanese who stay in taiwan should benefit from low tax, and generous economic policies to encourage reconstruction and reconciliation, not unlike what the North did with the South after the US Civil War, albeit without the racial discrimination and KKK.

In fact, the Chinese gov. should already regard Taiwan (ROC)'s gold bullion and hard cash as lost if they're located in the US- much as Ukraine's gold bullion was shipped off the New York after 2014 Maidan.

Vatt’ghern said:

I agree with this plan, i don't think it's acceptable for the US (because it would be the US) to benefit from capital flight and Han Chinese high IQ immigration by instigating and fomenting war in the Taiwan strait. Taiwanese who stay in taiwan should benefit from low tax, and generous economic policies to encourage reconstruction and reconciliation, not unlike what the North did with the South after the US Civil War, albeit without the racial discrimination and KKK.

In fact, the Chinese gov. should already regard Taiwan (ROC)'s gold bullion and hard cash as lost if they're located in the US- much as Ukraine's gold bullion was shipped off the New York after 2014 Maidan.

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What I don't understand is why would anyone want to store gold in the US? They realize that US could do an about-face at any moment and freeze/seize their assets?

GodRektsNoobs said:

What I don't understand is why would anyone want to store gold in the US? They realize that US could do an about-face at any moment and freeze/seize their assets?

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The individuals making those decisions tend to already be compromised with their families, assets and bank accounts in the Continental US; given the amount of emigration by KMT types and taiwan middle class/elites, i think we can already assume that taiwan's gold reserves are already in New York.

US foreign policy MO is to corrupt a nation's elites by citing class solidarity ie "we Elites, we Internationalists, we're so much better and enlightened and have a nobless oblige to do what is best for our nation's citizens (usually involving selling out the nation to US interests)"
Alongside corruption is flattery and giving benefits ie good College placements to the children of elites- in fact there was a CIA dossier that said they'd bribe foreign officials with University placements for their kids as opposed to money.
Operation Fox Hunt and Skynet did a lot to rollback a lot of these bribery attempts such that the USG started going after Chinese investigators as 'spies'.

solarz said:

If the US thought it could beat China in a war, they would have started one already. They wouldn't be waiting for China to make the first move on Taiwan.

Look at the media ops they run against China. It's the exact same crap as the stuff they fling against Russia.

Turns out, the US had no intention of fighting Russia, and the Ukrainians are SOL.

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This is completely nonsense and off topic. It seems like people on this forum are a lot more eager to get into war than people in the real world.

I tried to start a thread to discuss the military lessons from Ukraine and it gets turned into another I hate America and Taiwanese thread. Just wonderful. I give up.

tphuang said:

This is completely nonsense and off topic. It seems like people on this forum are a lot more eager to get into war than people in the real world.

I tried to start a thread to discuss the military lessons from Ukraine and it gets turned into another I hate America and Taiwanese thread. Just wonderful. I give up.

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Maybe it was just a bit premature. It will be difficult to recognise, let alone learn a lesson until quite a while after the fighting stops and truth about what actually is happening on the ground filters further into the public domain.
If there is one lesson which can be drawn, it is never underestimate the ability of the MSM to take hysteria and hyperbole to whole new levels when something real happens. Expect reaction to China taking Taiwan to exceed "level" and enter new entire dimensions!

Another thing I don’t think we have factored in is Taiwan’s geography, or the fact that it is an island. This means that in event of war where a no fly zone and blockade are established over and around the island, refugees cannot escape via conventional means. Whether it will lead to stiffer resistance or rapid collapse remains to be seen.

Sun Tzu said 慎战 long time ago. This should be the lesson that every Chinese learns from the endless history of war. If you are not Chinese, well, fair enough.
Back to the topic. While we are cautious of war, we are never afraid of it. However, defining a war that is "necessary" is pretty hard. I now believe that Russia taught us a lesson from negative side - again.

IMHO It's not because they waged war today, it's because they didn't in 2014. Those war crimes against Donbass residents should have been revealed long time ago, and Donbass residents have long express their willingness to let Russia intervene, yet Russia did it half way, gained nothing from the Ukraine crisis but a shitload of sanctions. Then it's now, when everything acutely escalated and Russia had to fight with hesitation. I never doubt Russians will win the battles, and I never doubt Chinese would win if there were a war against TW, but at what cost?

天时地利人和, another wisdom from Mencius.Time, is Russia's enemy, but China's friend. Geopolitical situation, meanwhile, Russia and China are not so different. Socioculture, well, Russia used to have a better position, and China is no good either, people inside still have some fantasies, while people outside have already regarded TW as a nation. You know what? When I am typing my opinion, Google actually puts up a banner ad called "Help Taiwan". Reality, gentlemen. If we waged war, that would be a deathtrap and sacrifice all our founding martyrs' effort for nothing.
Luckily though, time is on our side as TW is getting isolated. Once we possess enough power, not only militarily, but also monetarily, technologically and culturally, TW will bow. Before that, never use a hidden dragon.

tphuang said:

This is completely nonsense and off topic. It seems like people on this forum are a lot more eager to get into war than people in the real world.

I tried to start a thread to discuss the military lessons from Ukraine and it gets turned into another I hate America and Taiwanese thread. Just wonderful. I give up.

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The topic is lessons for China to learn from the Ukraine conflict. It might not be what you want to hear, but it's certainly not off-topic.

solarz said:

The topic is lessons for China to learn from the Ukraine conflict. It might not be what you want to hear, but it's certainly not off-topic.

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We have several threads (including a Taiwan contingency one) which is wide open for all the geopolitical commentary that everyone loves to talk about. I created this one specifically so that people that enjoy just talking about military stuff can have a conversation about it without getting into nuclear weapons and which countries they hate. Your post had nothing to do with military strategy to be learnt from Ukraine conflict.