Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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tankphobia

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EW doesn't work if the drone doesn't communicate externally like Shahed-136. Then it's just guns and cover/concealment. But here's the thing for China's opponents: China is huge, with tons of cover and concealment. Chinese forces operate from this huge rear. But they operate from small islands, with 0 room for maneuver, 0 cover and 0 concealment.

What is to stop 1000x Shahed-136 style drones with 1500 km range, 50 kg warhead from blowing up their entire air defense network and kicking the door open for ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and manned planes, and there's nowhere for them to run?
Another possible use is sticking radar reflectors on drones to act as decoys for your fighter fleet, they get shot down you lost nothing, they don't get shot down you can Kamikaze them into the enemy. You can use a small number of fighters to control a large swarm of drones and it'll be incredibly difficult for the enemy AA system to discriminate.
 

Temstar

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EW doesn't work if the drone doesn't communicate externally like Shahed-136. Then it's just guns and cover/concealment. But here's the thing for China's opponents: China is huge, with tons of cover and concealment. Chinese forces operate from this huge rear. But they operate from small islands, with 0 room for maneuver, 0 cover and 0 concealment.

What is to stop 1000x Shahed-136 style drones with 1500 km range, 50 kg warhead from blowing up their entire air defense network and kicking the door open for ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and manned planes, and there's nowhere for them to run?
Although I also agree that China isn't ready to face thousands of UAVs at once, I'll say China have put considerable thought into this:

The Saudi were so impressed with the performance of the Silent Hunter laser weapon that they signed a follow up contact for more:
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The MoD signed another SR370 million contract with Poly Technologies to obtain air defence systems for the RSADF. Dr. Al-Biyari and Poly Technologies President Huang Geming inked the deal.
 

tankphobia

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Although I also agree that China isn't ready to face thousands of UAVs at once, I'll say China have put considerable thought into this:

The Saudi were so impressed with the performance of the Silent Hunter laser weapon that they signed a follow up contact for more:
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The US has also experimented in this space, but ultimately lasers would run into the same issue as guns based defenses as laser power is much reduced over distance. Missiles would be the only scalable long ranged and reliable solution. Well unless room temperature super conductors become a thing and you can procure MW scale lasers in a truck sized package.
 

Temstar

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The US has also experimented in this space, but ultimately lasers would run into the same issue as guns based defenses as laser power is much reduced over distance. Missiles would be the only scalable long ranged and reliable solution. Well unless room temperature super conductors become a thing and you can procure MW scale lasers in a truck sized package.
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Silent Hunter is a truck sized package, granted it's range is pretty sort so while it can be easily moved around it's suitable only as point defense.

Shilao and co did discuss Silent Hunter when this news from Saudi Arabia first came out. Apparently it can perform as a completely stand alone unit, but it can also be plugged into industrial power supply in which case its performance would be greatly enhanced by the external power. I think they humorously used Evangelions as an analogy.

And they pointed out, "industrial power supply" could also be another name for "EV supercharging station". So any country that's rolling out EV infrastructure en masse would have an advantage in DEW. Guess which country is doing that?
 

FairAndUnbiased

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Although I also agree that China isn't ready to face thousands of UAVs at once, I'll say China have put considerable thought into this:

The Saudi were so impressed with the performance of the Silent Hunter laser weapon that they signed a follow up contact for more:
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China has the advantage of large area of maneuver, cover/concealment and continued development of AA guns. Maybe not thousands of UAV, but definitely hundreds. Some other countries operating from small islands with little cover/concealment, and who do not develop AA guns since they're supposedly a "cold war era dictatorship weapon", won't be able to even handle a few hundred UAVs.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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Back on the military side of things, I think this war is really cementing the role of UAVs in modern warfare. I am not sure if anyone, even China is fully prepared for mass drone warfare.

Don't get me wrong, China's UAV capabilities is probably only matched by the US, but a less talked about aspect is the ability to defend against such attacks. No country right now really has a cost effective defense against drone swarms. Missiles are expensive and guns are short ranged, the only remaining option of EW is unproven until conflict actually begins.
I think that the work of defending China against drones should be taken more seriously than before, not just by the PLA, but the Militia, PAP and the People's Police too should play their roles well.

Firstly, the initiative shouldn't be limited to merely defending military bases, stations and installations from enemy drone attacks, but also industries, depots, warehouses, facilities and infrastructures that are important and critical not just for the war effort, but also maintaining the stability and way of life of the Chinese populace as best as possible.

Moreover, the circumstance of the enemy utilizing drones of all sizes, variants and capabilities for attacking China should be taken into account as well. We have seen how Ukrainian and Russian troops having utilized all sorts of drones against opposing forces on the Ukraine warzone - from Bayraktar TB-2 MALE drones to Shahed 136 loitering drones to hobbyist-sized DJI drones.

Furthermore, we have seen how that lone "protestor" on NED paycheck has done in Beijing just a few days ago. I don't think it would be wrong to suggest that there could be considerable number of dissidents and agents being buried across China as well, waiting for just the go-sign from their foreign sponsors to launch espionage and sabotage operations against the Chinese government, PLA and civilians alike. Plus, just like my previous post in this thread, terrorism shouldn't be ruled out either.

This is where hobbyist drones should be given serious attention by the authorities, as their affordability, versatility and perforation can be translated into becoming useful tools capable of causing destruction and chaos against the military setups, government and populace of China if fallen into enough wrong hands (in this case, in the hands of dissidents, agents and even terrorists hidden across China). In case of war, China must be prepared to face both symmetrical and asymmetrical warfare in this regard.

To begin with, I wonder if box-shaped nettings set up to cover critical and important military sites, industries and infrastructures (not just the sides but also the top) would suffice as a low-cost method in preventing or minimizing spying and attack operations using modified hobbyist drones.
 

AndrewS

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I think that the work of defending China against drones should be taken more seriously than before, not just by the PLA, but the Militia, PAP and the People's Police too should play their roles well.

Firstly, the initiative shouldn't be limited to merely defending military bases, stations and installations from enemy drone attacks, but also industries, depots, warehouses, facilities and infrastructures that are important and critical not just for the war effort, but also maintaining the stability and way of life of the Chinese populace as best as possible.

Moreover, the circumstance of the enemy utilizing drones of all sizes, variants and capabilities for attacking China should be taken into account as well. We have seen how Ukrainian and Russian troops having utilized all sorts of drones against opposing forces on the Ukraine warzone - from Bayraktar TB-2 MALE drones to Shahed 136 loitering drones to hobbyist-sized DJI drones.

Furthermore, we have seen how that lone "protestor" on NED paycheck has done in Beijing just a few days ago. I don't think it would be wrong to suggest that there could be considerable number of dissidents and agents being buried across China as well, waiting for just the go-sign from their foreign sponsors to launch espionage and sabotage operations against the Chinese government, PLA and civilians alike. Plus, just like my previous post in this thread, terrorism shouldn't be ruled out either.

This is where hobbyist drones should be given serious attention by the authorities, as their affordability, versatility and perforation can be translated into becoming useful tools capable of causing destruction and chaos against the military setups, government and populace of China if fallen into enough wrong hands (in this case, in the hands of dissidents, agents and even terrorists hidden across China). In case of war, China must be prepared to face both symmetrical and asymmetrical warfare in this regard.

To begin with, I wonder if box-shaped nettings set up to cover critical and important military sites, industries and infrastructures (not just the sides but also the top) would suffice as a low-cost method in preventing or minimizing spying and attack operations using modified hobbyist drones.

Alternatively, China could focus on achieving drone overmatch. So Chinese drones flood the battlefield and prevent the opposing drones from launching
 

tankphobia

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Alternatively, China could focus on achieving drone overmatch. So Chinese drones flood the battlefield and prevent the opposing drones from launching
You can launch rocket assisted drones from a parked car in a lot, a forest clearing, roof of a building, middle of a street etc. There isn't really a way to 100% supress enemy UAV usage even if they are vastly outnumbered.

Due to the relatively short distance between the mainland and Taiwan, if they so desired they'll be able to launch UAVs from concealed positions long after PLA has landed. Fortunately they'll rather buy amphibious landing ships rather than thousands of kamikaze UAVs.
 

AndrewS

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You can launch rocket assisted drones from a parked car in a lot, a forest clearing, roof of a building, middle of a street etc. There isn't really a way to 100% supress enemy UAV usage even if they are vastly outnumbered.

Due to the relatively short distance between the mainland and Taiwan, if they so desired they'll be able to launch UAVs from concealed positions long after PLA has landed. Fortunately they'll rather buy amphibious landing ships rather than thousands of kamikaze UAVs.

When I refer to drone overmatch, it would be the ability to automatically monitor and categorise all activity on enemy ground, which includes any preparations to launch drones.
 
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