Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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ACuriousPLAFan

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Petrolicious88 said:
I don’t think that’s going to happen. Taiwan is going to play the victims card in order to get international support. That’s its only viable strategy. There’s no moral defense in attacking the Jinmao Tower or Three Gorges Dam.
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Recall that over the past 3 decades until 2016 where extremist separatists from Xinjiang conducted multiple terror attacks against Chinese civilians (both Hans and Uyghurs alike) throughout Xinjiang, plus the more prominent ones in Tiananmen Square in 2013, Kunming Train Station in 2014, and an attempted hijacking of a Tianjin Airines flight in 2012.

And what did the West say?

Most of the Western media reported those terror attacks as mere "ethnic clashes" "race riots" "ethnic conflict between Hans and Uyghurs", while refraining from the usage of the term "terrorist attacks" in their news reports when describing those attacks as much as possible.

It is safe to bet that when the time comes and/or some Taiwan-based extremist separatists have grown desperate enough that they could very well be turning towards terror tactics against Chinese civilians, the West would even cheer on them and claimed that those Taiwan-based extremist separatists are "sacrificing themselves for the fight for democracy and freedom against the tyrannical and genocidal SeeSeePee", plus providing even more arms support to the separatist forces on Taiwan and (silently) encouraging them to conduct even more such terror attacks against the Chinese populace.

Just refer back to the Kuomintang guidebook just several posts above (Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario) on how to wage asymmetrical warfare against mainland China throughout the later half of the 20th century.

That's why I said that China must be on full alert and be prepared to respond when it comes to defending the Chinese populace from possible terror attacks, especially during times of extreme tensions or war - Whether those to-be terror attack prepetrators are from Taiwan, Xinjiang, even Hong Kong or overseas, for that matter.
 
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Petrolicious88

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
Recall that over the past 3 decades until 2016 where extremist separatists from Xinjiang conducted multiple terror attacks against Chinese civilians (both Hans and Uyghurs alike) throughout Xinjiang, plus the more prominent ones in Tiananmen Square in 2013, Kunming Train Station in 2014, and an attempted hijacking of a Tianjin Airines flight in 2012.

And what did the West say?

Most of the Western media reported those terror attacks as mere "ethnic clashes" "race riots" "ethnic conflict between Hans and Uyghurs", while refraining from the usage of the term "terrorist attacks" in their news reports when describing those attacks as much as possible.

It is safe to bet that when the time comes and/or some Taiwan-based extremist separatists have grown desperate enough that they could very well be turning towards terror tactics against Chinese civilians, the West would even cheer on them and claimed that those Taiwan-based extremist separatists are "sacrificing themselves for the fight for democracy and freedom against the tyrannical and genocidal SeeSeePee", plus providing even more arms support to the separatist forces on Taiwan and (silently) encouraging them to conduct even more such terror attacks against the Chinese populace.

Just refer back to the Kuomintang guidebook just several posts above (Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario) on how to wage asymmetrical warfare against mainland China throughout the later half of the 20th century.

That's why I said that China must be on full alert and be prepared to respond when it comes to defending the Chinese populace from possible terror attacks, especially during times of extreme tensions or war - Whether those to-be terror attack prepetrators are from Taiwan, Xinjiang, even Hong Kong or overseas, for that matter.
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Once war starts, the entire country will be on alert. Expect enhanced security in all strategic areas/locations. But destroying the Three Gorges or bringing down Jinmao Tower World Trade Center style, thus killing tens of thousands of civilians is on a different level. There's no justifications for that, no way to spin that narrative no matter who reports it. That kind of attack is unlikely to happen unless it is also done by China (e.g if China bombs Taipei 101).
 
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Biscuits

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Petrolicious88 said:
Once war starts, the entire country will be on alert. Expect enhanced security in all strategic areas/locations. But destroying the Three Gorges or bringing down Jinmao Tower World Trade Center style, thus killing tens of thousands of civilians is on a different level. There's no justifications for that, no way to spin that narrative no matter who reports it. That kind of attack is unlikely to happen unless it is also done by China (e.g if China bombs Taipei 101).
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Attacks on dams is impossible but especially the larger dams within China as these are concrete mountains requiring nuclear or at least tactical nuclear weapons to destroy, protected by layers of air defense.

A terrorist simply cannot smuggle a bomb of any size that would do even anywhere near significant damage. As in, even if you put 30 of those Kerch bridge trucks on top of eachother on the three gorges dam, it would just leave a scorch mark.

Towers etc. I don't think using a plane would work again after 9/11 alerted world govts to such a possibility. A terrorist could use a bomb, but its fanciful to think it can bring down the whole tower.

If a plane is used, I think even the most dumb ass Americans can understand the side hijacking civilian airliners and driving them into buildings are the evil ones. No amount of "acktually" from US media will reverse the image of 9/11 imprinted into US minds through fierce brainwashing.

It is a bit understated just how good China's internal security is. Even ISIS didn't manage to get bombs of any major size inside China. The most they can get is knives.

In that regard, I think hijacking a plane outside of the PRC and flying it in is the most feasible way for a Taiwanese rebel to cause a terror attack that wouldn't just be a madman stabbing a few people and getting instantly shot.

Overall I think the risk of terror is low, the rebels simply don't have resources to reach that far, and they need to not be too overtly evil in order to not make what little support they have politically untenable.
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

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zhangjim said:
... just creating some explosions and then spreading rumors can create extremely serious social panic.
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Spreading paranoia of an irrelevant threat can do even more damage, by distracting your focus from the actual objective.

The fact is this: The power China is accumulating in this theater is overwhelming.

Get the society to be confident in this fact, so it doesn't fall prey to any "serious social panic".

Being insecure/paranoid/triggered/polarized etc. this is the type of sh*t that very quickly weakens societies from the inside.
 
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zhangjim

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Mohsin77 said:
Spreading paranoia of an irrelevant threat can do even more damage, by distracting your focus from the actual objective.

The fact is this: The power China is accumulating in this theater is overwhelming.

Get the society to be confident in this fact, so it doesn't fall prey to any "serious social panic".

Being insecure/paranoid/triggered/polarized etc. this is the type of sh*t that very quickly weakens societies from the inside.
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Not everyone has the expertise.
When Japan's nuclear power plant was damaged by the tsunami, many Chinese people rushed to buy iodized salt out of fear of nuclear radiation. As a result, many people have hoarded salt that has not been used up until now.

Education in military knowledge is seriously lacking among the Chinese people.
Moreover, some people with ulterior motives will inculcate wrong information to the public for political purposes, deliberately exaggerating the advanced level of American and Japanese weapons.

In a tense situation, we should not trust the people's reason too much, especially most of them have no knowledge of China's military progress.
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

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Registered Member
zhangjim said:
... especially most of them have no knowledge of China's military progress.
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Those people aren't the immediate problem. It's when the people with knowledge do stupid stuff, that's what causes a crisis-of-confidence in the general public.

For example: Look what happened in the US after 9/11, as a case-study. It was their 'experts' that fu*ked it all up, got everyone paranoid and insecure, distracted their focus from important things, launched a 20 year useless war that strategically crippled their progress, and destroyed their internal cohesion and trust in institutions etc. 9/11 just surfaced problems which already existed and accelerated them, until it became a runaway train.
 
coolgod

coolgod

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Registered Member
zhangjim said:
Not everyone has the expertise.
When Japan's nuclear power plant was damaged by the tsunami, many Chinese people rushed to buy iodized salt out of fear of nuclear radiation. As a result, many people have hoarded salt that has not been used up until now.

Education in military knowledge is seriously lacking among the Chinese people.
Moreover, some people with ulterior motives will inculcate wrong information to the public for political purposes, deliberately exaggerating the advanced level of American and Japanese weapons.

In a tense situation, we should not trust the people's reason too much, especially most of them have no knowledge of China's military progress.
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Oh No :eek: , Chinese citizens accidentally bought too much salt. What could they possibly do?
Like store it at home and use it as cooking salt during a real nuclear emergency? You do know that salt is essential for human diet right?
 
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zhangjim

Junior Member
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coolgod said:
Oh No:eek:, Chinese citizens accidentally bought too much salt. What could they possibly do?
Like store it at home and use it as cooking salt during a real nuclear emergency? You do know that salt is essential for human diet right?
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Salt is naturally indispensable, but it is impossible to rely on the iodine added to these edible salts to resist nuclear radiation.
And that's not the point of the problem at all. It is easy for the public to panic over blind obedience. Distant accidents at Japan's nuclear power plants can cause nationwide chaos, so information control must be carried out in wartime, otherwise the enemy will create some small explosions and spread rumors will be enough to create serious chaos.
The enemy will not resort to extreme measures for fear of retaliation.
 
coolgod

coolgod

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zhangjim said:
Salt is naturally indispensable, but it is impossible to rely on the iodine added to these edible salts to resist nuclear radiation.
And that's not the point of the problem at all. It is easy for the public to panic over blind obedience. Distant accidents at Japan's nuclear power plants can cause nationwide chaos, so information control must be carried out in wartime, otherwise the enemy will create some small explosions and spread rumors will be enough to create serious chaos.
The enemy will not resort to extreme measures for fear of retaliation.
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You used an example to mock the intelligence of Chinese citizens when in fact you were blind to your own stupidity. There is absolutely nothing wrong with prepping salt in case of nuclear war, in fact salt is very useful and also essential in post-nuclear war cuisine (try cooking basic dishes without salt). Yes, iodine salt can not replace the role of potassium iodide (KI) pills in saturating the thyroid, but they are still essential for emergency preparation. Best of all salt is cheap, doesn't go bad, easy to store, and replace. It is hard to come up with a better ingredient in a prepper's survival kit.

If you don't have enough salt you will certainly die within a few months. If you didn't take KI pills before exposure to Iodine-131 there is a chance you may develop thyroid cancer many years down the line, a cancer which has a 98% survival rate. Besides the fact that it is impossible for Chinese people to stock up on KI pills all at once before exposure, salt is clearly the superior item for survival prepping.

Most people are uneducated with regard to military emergencies, please don't make it into a Chinese problem.
 
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