Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Jono

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
What happened on the Crimean Bridge has raised concerns among some about whether the intelligence services on the island of Taiwan will follow the example of the Ukrainians in causing similar disruption and causing chaos
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not at all easy for TW agents of sabotage to infiltrate the Mainland with loads of explosives and weapons.
besides, there is the threat of capital punishment if caught red-handed.
finally, I suspect the political will of middle-ranking officers to sabotage is simply not there, as they will be tried as traitors after reunification, just for organizing one even if the said sabotage fails.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
What happened on the Crimean Bridge has raised concerns among some about whether the intelligence services on the island of Taiwan will follow the example of the Ukrainians in causing similar disruption and causing chaos
Click to expand...
Honestly, with Ukraine already providing an example to the world, such terror attacks against buildings, public facilities and infrastructures in China is indeed a legit concern for the mainland Chinese authorities.

There is something WRT to this which I would like to bring up from Liu Xiaofei (and Fu Qianshao as well) from late September last year (2021), of which the video is linked below (only in Mandarin Chinese):
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

For those who don't understand Mandarin Chinese - In short, someone on a well-known Taiwanese internet forum (PTT forum) posted a question thread on how many fully-fueled civilian jetliners would be required to ram and collapse the Shanghai Tower (currently the tallest building in China).
Shanghai_-_Shanghai_Tower_-_0003(cropped).jpg
Pictured: Shanghai Tower.

The Taiwanese PTT thread poster even went into the details on the structure and method of construction of the Shanghai Tower, plus comparing it to the twin towers of the old World Trade Center in New York, civilian jetliner models in use by Taiwanese airlines, etc. The discussion that followed alarmed many people that even police reports were filed because of this. Why? Because the discussion on the forum did bear similarity to how al-Qaeda's Osama Bin Laden planned the September 11 attacks, considering that Bin Laden has a civil engineering background.

In retrospect, the Taiwanese PTT thread poster is suggesting a Chinese version of the September 11 attacks.
WTC_smoking_on_9-11.jpeg

However, this isn't the first time that topics and suggestions for conducting terrorist attacks against China have been brought up by Taiwanese separatist extremists. Others buildings and infrastructures in China that popped up in those kinds of topics and suggestions throughout the past few decades include the Shanghai Jinmao Tower, the Pearl River Delta Bridge and the Three Gorges Dam.

In essense, the possibility of Taiwanese separatist extremists looking into the option of waging terrorist attacks against Chinese civilians must never be disregarded.

Therefore, the recent attack on the Crimea Bridge should ring loud enough alarm bells for China with regards to the safeguarding and protecting the Chinese homeland and her people, especially the regions along her coastline and several hundred kilometers inland that are closer to Taiwan island where hundreds of millions of Chinese people resides.

In case of ultra-hightened tensions and/or AR scenario of Taiwan island, the PLA, PAP, People's Militia and relevant security agencies and departments of the Chinese government must be put on full alert and be prepared to respond to any contigencies in order to protect Chinese civilians from any potential terrorist attacks by extremist separatists based on Taiwan island.
 
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B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
China's internal control and surveillance is 100x stronger than Russia's. In Russia they still had paper documents （纸质身份证） until 2015. China has full electronic documents. China has more security cameras than any country in the world, maybe not monitoring individuals, but 100% monitoring key infrastructure.

This is why some countries keeps saying that China has no freedom - they want it to be easy to sabotage.
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Small correction but at least UK if not a few more countries have China beat when it comes to surveillance per capita.

Even ISIS failed largely to put any major bombings inside China during the height of the anti terror war. I think overall unless primitive weapons such as knives are used, terror attacks can be ruled out due to the professionalism of the armed police.

Perhaps more interesting is the fact that if China is attacked by America, it will unlike countries such as Ukraine or Iraq possess ability to strike the aggressor's deep homeland. China does not have enough bombers to penetrate US Air defenses reliably on the level of strategic bombing, but they can still utilize their so far officially unnamed version of prompt global strike to hit targets within America in order to sap American willpower for their invasion while raising morale in China.

If Chinese coastal cities are targeted by Americans resulting in civilian casualties, China could strike the Pentagon or Langley, showing ability to hit landmarks important to the US regime without resorting to anything as lowly as suicide bombing.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Honestly, with Ukraine already providing an example to the world, such terror attacks against buildings, public facilities and infrastructures in China is indeed a legit concern for the mainland Chinese authorities.

There is something WRT to this which I would like to bring up from Liu Xiaofei (and Fu Qianshao as well) from late September last year (2021), of which the video is linked below (only in Mandarin Chinese):
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

For those who don't understand Mandarin Chinese - In short, someone on a well-known Taiwanese internet forum (PTT forum) posted a question thread on how many fully-fueled civilian jetliners would be required to ram and collapse the Shanghai Tower (currently the tallest building in China).
View attachment 99095
Pictured: Shanghai Tower.

The Taiwanese PTT thread poster even went into the details on the structure and method of construction of the Shanghai Tower, plus comparing it to the twin towers of the old World Trade Center in New York, civilian jetliner models in use by Taiwanese airlines, etc. The discussion that followed alarmed many people that even police reports were filed because of this. Why? Because the discussion on the forum did bear similarity to how al-Qaeda's Osama Bin Laden planned the September 11 attacks, considering that Bin Laden has a civil engineering background.

In retrospect, the Taiwanese PTT thread poster is suggesting a Chinese version of the September 11 attacks.
View attachment 99096

However, this isn't the first time that topics and suggestions for conducting terrorist attacks against China have been brought up by Taiwanese separatist extremists. Others buildings and infrastructures in China that popped up in those kinds of topics and suggestions throughout the past few decades include the Shanghai Jinmao Tower, the Pearl River Delta Bridge and the Three Gorges Dam.

In essense, the possibility of Taiwanese separatist extremists looking into the option of waging terrorist attacks against Chinese civilians must never be disregarded.

Therefore, the recent attack on the Crimea Bridge should ring loud enough alarm bells for China with regards to the safeguarding and protecting the Chinese homeland and her people, especially the regions along her coastline and several hundred kilometers inland that are closer to Taiwan island where hundreds of millions of Chinese people resides.

In case of ultra-hightened tensions and/or AR scenario of Taiwan island, the PLA, PAP, People's Militia and relevant security agencies and departments of the Chinese government must be put on full alert and be prepared to respond to any contigencies in order to protect Chinese civilians from any potential terrorist attacks by extremist separatists based on Taiwan island.
Click to expand...
Let me show you the end result of ramming a plane into 3 Gorges Dam:

Japanese_kamikaze_on_HMS_Sussex.JPG


That was a Ki-51 (2900 kg total, 250 kg warhead, 520 L internal fuel if it is similar to Zero) ramming a 1 inch (25.4 mm) plate of steel on the HMS Sussex at up to 500 km/hr.

3 Gorges Dam is 40 meters width of reinforced concrete at the narrowest, 115 meters width of reinforced concrete at the base.
 
Z

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Let me show you the end result of ramming a plane into 3 Gorges Dam:

Japanese_kamikaze_on_HMS_Sussex.JPG


That was a Ki-51 (2900 kg total, 250 kg warhead, 520 L internal fuel if it is similar to Zero) ramming a 1 inch (25.4 mm) plate of steel on the HMS Sussex at up to 500 km/hr.

3 Gorges Dam is 40 meters width of reinforced concrete at the narrowest, 115 meters width of reinforced concrete at the base.
Click to expand...
In theory, this is true, but just creating some explosions and then spreading rumors can create extremely serious social panic.
e28cca3c6741e8f3.png
f1a2f7c012a1fbe5.jpg
3a5963fac7aab66f.png
af4b7d5aa653fac4.png
Written by a subordinate of Jiang Weiguo, a retired intelligence agent, the book narrates many appalling terrorist tactics.
Please forgive me for not being able to translate these words sentence by sentence. Jiang Weiguo euphemistically stated that these contents were "only personal experience".
Once the situation becomes tense, there is a good chance that those extremists will use these "Cold War legacies".
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
In theory, this is true, but just creating some explosions and then spreading rumors can create extremely serious social panic.
View attachment 99101
View attachment 99102
View attachment 99103
View attachment 99104
Written by a subordinate of Jiang Weiguo, a retired intelligence agent, the book narrates many appalling terrorist tactics.
Please forgive me for not being able to translate these words sentence by sentence. Jiang Weiguo euphemistically stated that these contents were "only personal experience".
Once the situation becomes tense, there is a good chance that those extremists will use these "Cold War legacies".
Click to expand...
Ha good find. Abducting and raping of family members of diplomatic staff, how very ROC.

These days I get the feeling ROC HUMINT is pretty weak due to their focus on internet PSYOP as well as China's dynamic zero policy. Apparently DPP is doing the Zelensky thing and replacing capable intelligence people with ideologically pure DPP supporters regardless of their capabilities. Also the fact that China's economy is growing rapidly means financial incentive to attract turncoat is becoming increasingly difficult.
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
An attack on Chinese civilians opens the door to attacking Taiwanese civilians. So would they dare to do it? China can kill plenty if they wanted to. It's the US that claims it cares about human rights and doesn't target civilians. What makes people think China is bound by the same rules despite how they claim China doesn't care about human rights?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This was aired on 60 Minutes Sunday night. Taiwanese ain't Ukrainians. Taiwanese are like most Asian allies of the US who expect their white knight to come save them. Yeah that means they're the woman. That Taiwanese military leader... he thinks Taiwan wasted money buying fighters and tanks from the US when they should've bought drones, Javelins and stingers? How about having both? But he just wants drones, Javelins and Stingers...? That Taiwanese boy that went to Ukraine to fight...? How many kills did he have? Why is he back in Taiwan? He either chickened out or the Ukrainians rejected him. Or how about he just lied. That pretty much describes Taiwan as a whole.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
In theory, this is true, but just creating some explosions and then spreading rumors can create extremely serious social panic.
View attachment 99101
View attachment 99102
View attachment 99103
View attachment 99104
Written by a subordinate of Jiang Weiguo, a retired intelligence agent, the book narrates many appalling terrorist tactics.
Please forgive me for not being able to translate these words sentence by sentence. Jiang Weiguo euphemistically stated that these contents were "only personal experience".
Once the situation becomes tense, there is a good chance that those extremists will use these "Cold War legacies".
Click to expand...
if they're resorting to releasing poison snakes, then they're stupider than I thought.
 
D

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
tankphobia said:
In terms of strategy that the US would use, I would think other than direct fleet on fleet action which would slightly favor China currently due to proximity of battlefield, it would be the US pressing it's strategic bomber/aerial refuel fleet advantage both stealthy and not to lob stealthed cruise missiles at Chinese landing forces while they are crossing the strait. It won't necessarily stop the Chinese forces, but could potentially exact a bloody toll depending on whether China can achieve local aerial supremacy and push it's AA umbrella much further out.

Not a knockout blow by any means as they can be shot down, but the US would be able to manage barrages of a hundred+ air launched cruise missiles at a time without much difficulty. At that volume even if they weren't all ER-JASSM but tomahawks it would be a headache for isolated ships.

This is a way the US can intervene without a horrendous amount of casualties, well at least while allied forces within range get smothered.
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it is a good idea in theory, i think one that many assuming the US will adopt. the problem is then you are literally going to have most of your bomber fleet sitting there just waiting for a hint of chinese landing fleeting taking off. in the meantime the chinese can just string you along and has its fleet sit in port leaving your wondering, while it continues softening up taiwan's defence. worse yet, china could be sending its fleet out in small pieces to take surrounding islets like penghu and matsu, leaving you scrambling to confirm if those are the main invasion fleet.
 
P

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Honestly, with Ukraine already providing an example to the world, such terror attacks against buildings, public facilities and infrastructures in China is indeed a legit concern for the mainland Chinese authorities.

There is something WRT to this which I would like to bring up from Liu Xiaofei (and Fu Qianshao as well) from late September last year (2021), of which the video is linked below (only in Mandarin Chinese):
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

For those who don't understand Mandarin Chinese - In short, someone on a well-known Taiwanese internet forum (PTT forum) posted a question thread on how many fully-fueled civilian jetliners would be required to ram and collapse the Shanghai Tower (currently the tallest building in China).
View attachment 99095
Pictured: Shanghai Tower.

The Taiwanese PTT thread poster even went into the details on the structure and method of construction of the Shanghai Tower, plus comparing it to the twin towers of the old World Trade Center in New York, civilian jetliner models in use by Taiwanese airlines, etc. The discussion that followed alarmed many people that even police reports were filed because of this. Why? Because the discussion on the forum did bear similarity to how al-Qaeda's Osama Bin Laden planned the September 11 attacks, considering that Bin Laden has a civil engineering background.

In retrospect, the Taiwanese PTT thread poster is suggesting a Chinese version of the September 11 attacks.
View attachment 99096

However, this isn't the first time that topics and suggestions for conducting terrorist attacks against China have been brought up by Taiwanese separatist extremists. Others buildings and infrastructures in China that popped up in those kinds of topics and suggestions throughout the past few decades include the Shanghai Jinmao Tower, the Pearl River Delta Bridge and the Three Gorges Dam.

In essense, the possibility of Taiwanese separatist extremists looking into the option of waging terrorist attacks against Chinese civilians must never be disregarded.

Therefore, the recent attack on the Crimea Bridge should ring loud enough alarm bells for China with regards to the safeguarding and protecting the Chinese homeland and her people, especially the regions along her coastline and several hundred kilometers inland that are closer to Taiwan island where hundreds of millions of Chinese people resides.

In case of ultra-hightened tensions and/or AR scenario of Taiwan island, the PLA, PAP, People's Militia and relevant security agencies and departments of the Chinese government must be put on full alert and be prepared to respond to any contigencies in order to protect Chinese civilians from any potential terrorist attacks by extremist separatists based on Taiwan island.
Click to expand...
I don’t think that’s going to happen. Taiwan is going to play the victims card in order to get international support. That’s its only viable strategy. There’s no moral defense in attacking the Jinmao Tower or Three Gorges Dam.
 
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