Isn’t the Tu-214R Russia’s equivalent to the American E-8?
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Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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Isn’t the Tu-214R Russia’s equivalent to the American E-8?
Case and point:
China should fully expect and be acutely prepared for the use of kamikaze drones by separatist forces on Taiwan, the US and their allies against China in case of a hypothetical war in the Western Pacific.
They will award the contract to Lockheed Martin which will produce 2 drones a month that will require 5G-level WiFi to do an over-the-air update right before launch, which might cause the warhead to not detonate unless you send it back to the factory to be checked because the ecryption protocol of the update system actually works one way and they don't know why.
I think the bigger concern would be conversion of civilian drones into suicide drones, much like what happened with Houthis drones. But then again if they try doing that something like this would happen.
Xi: Get me Frank Wang on the phone.
Wang: This is Frank Wang.
Xi: Disable all DJI drones launched from Taiwan.
Wang: Done.
Xi (hangs up the phone).
They could, though the question that is left unswered for now is if any of the alternatives in the west have the manufacturing capability to mass produce them in quantities big enough and if those that can be mass produced, do have a relevant carrying capacity.
What seems to make the Shahed-136 such a problem besides the quantity of them is the size of the warhead.
What seems to make the Shahed-136 such a problem besides the quantity of them is the size of the warhead.
A very interesting point is that Chinese civilian volunteers could send easily crowdfund and send their own drones against rebel positions or even Japanese/SK ones.
The question of defending the nation would be considered existential by most people, especially if Japan is one of the attackers, and it would be very very hard for America to launch an invasion without help from Japan.
China can organize territorial battalions made up of volunteers who gather recon through open sources and operate drones.
The big ticket strikes would all be done by PLA, but if for example some friendly civilian on Taiwan Island photos a local bunker, or some netizen finds a suspicious looking vehicle within rebel held territory on satellite imagery, the local PLA command can okay an attack, thereafter, the volunteers fly their self funded kamikaze drones while the military provides explosives. Or, if they find a bigger target, the PLA themselves will strike it using publicly gathered intel.
Through this method, China creates a modern version of the people's war where many volunteers can easily join up to resist the invader, but unlike the older concept of a people's war, this strategy doesn't burden the volunteers with the risks of engagement.
The ability of Chinese industry to churn out such lower grade drones is limitless, and there are many many citizens who would volunteer to fly them and/or find targets. They don't even need their own bases, they can organize efforts through online groups with a few local ex military veterans responsible for sending the drones into the air.
If disaster strikes and an attack on the country is imminent, the CPC must make sure to market the war effort to the population in the most effective way.
With all due respect, but this is a terrible idea. How much time are you going to waste dealing with people “spotting” all kinds of things they think are tanks, etc.? Rule of thumb, if any ideas involve the words "netizens" or "online groups", forget about it.
Self-funded kamikaze drone?
1. Most civilian drones do not have the range to get to Taiwan island from the mainland
2. If the people are willing to invest their money in blowing up some crappy Taobao special, why not invest those funds into the actual PLA MIC to create actual GOOD drones? (Like war bonds)
You are totally misunderstanding the concept of People's War btw.
People's War is not to conduct warfare with random masses of people, the actual war fighting was still done by professional soldiers, just under different tactical conditions. The objective was to pull the more traditional armies away from the urban centres where their logistics were strong and into the countryside where rural support could better support smaller units and seize the advantage.
It is not foolproof either, a professional army can easily defeat this tactic. The communist guerillas in Malaysia were defeated by the British forces because the British were willing to commit genocide/mass killings, burning villages and forced relocations, and intimidate the population with public executions.
So in short, no real military should do what you are suggesting. If PRC wants to mobilize the people, they should be working in factories or something like that.
This aside, I do agree that low cost strike capability is something that is difficult for the Americans to handle. The Shaheed drones are probably something that keeps the US out of Iran, not because they represent some kind of supreme capability, but simply because the actual dollar cost of fighting Iran becomes too high.
Saw on the weekend an article on how much longer the USA and EU can sustain the military supplies to Ukraine. The logic is that, for now, the cost can be justified because part of the military build up was always to fight Russia (sunk costs), but once these are expended, the real costs will rise considerably.
Going back to the Shaheed... These drones are maybe 1/100th the cost of a M2 Bradley? Add on to this that US ground forces do not have a great deal of organic anti air capability beyond Avengers and Infantry carried Stingers... maybe Bradley gunners if they are really good. So even hitting 2 or 3 Bradleys with 100 drones is a win. This is probably why the US keeps pushing this porcupine idea for Taiwan, but the problem is that they are not able to optimize cost to capability. Switchblades have not done jack, otherwise they would be all over social media like HIMARS or Javelin.
Not true. People's war is about how to mobilize people and do whatever they can except directly facing well-trained well-equipped enemies. Mass killings don't work because that not only means guerillas lost their supporters but so do the invaders. You can't get resources and products from land without anyone alive. If you want to build real control over somewhere, like Iraq or Afghanistan, either you kill everyone and get people who support you, which just costs too much, or you need local people to cooperate with you, and get you enough resources and products to pay for your army's further operation. If you can't, you will have to pay the price with a huge amount of money, resources, and lives. Like Americans did in the middle-east.
The core idea of people's war, in short, is to treat your people well in the correct ways, then they can give you huge support you have never seen. To do this, you need to help your people live better and get their support, not in words but in actions.
Like, suppose there is a group of enemies heading toward us, how many are they? Do they have trucks, tanks, or heavy artillery? Treat your people well, soon you find that people who support you are your eyes. Again, this is not letting them face the enemy directly, but just telling you what they see during their days, like sending some photos to specific telegram channels. Both Ukraine and Russia are asking their people to do things like that. So as an example, Russians rather send key information to specific pro-Russian channels than just Twitter. These pro-Russia channels gather and filter out valid information and send them to their government for free, which save a lot of work for Russian intelligence.
Now I use what happened once in my motherland during WW2 as an example. Our people tell us what they see, get medicine from the city for us,.etc. In return, our soldiers help them with production, farming, and business. Build hidden military factories of our own in the middle of the mountain, and make sure we can get guns and ammo by ourselves. Tell the farmers to evacuate to the hidden shelter nearby built by soldiers and locals when the Japanese army comes to execute mass killing (yes, the Japanese Army during WW2 did a lot of massacres in China, which is why they happened to be fascist), and rebuild villages for locals after enemy set every house they find on fire. Fight against our enemy at their weakest point, sell or deliver some of the captured goods especially food to the starving people, for free or at a very low price. Send party members to the villages, negotiate with our people, know what they need, get them what we can give, live and work with them, and win their support and trust. Organize people who trust us with elite party members (elite here means trained for how to get these things done, most of them have good records) as leaders, defend their village if possible, hide people into shelters when necessary, call our army to help,.etc. The key is, people support their army (and party, government), army (and party, government) must support people in return(which is why our army is called the people's army). People won't support local guerillas from the beginning, for supporting guerrillas may mean the death of the whole village/town/city. But you must make them believe that you can help them live better while getting more invaders killed, not just a day or two, but months even years, decades. In this way, your enemy can't get enough resources to support their further operation, while we can.
We build a strong connection between our people and the army/the government/the party. Only when we are a whole, we can support each other and make everyone's lives better.
One may say that things have changed by technology. True. But people still can help you in many ways. They can hide ammunition and guns in certain places, and donate money and drones(Russians donate a lot of DJI drones to their army). After some special training, volunteers can be good drone operators, who send all things they get to a special military officer, who did the professional intelligence stuff. Civilians can help you do the construction stuff, cover the whole thing up, and make a small town into a well-covered trap for enemies like the Israeli or American army (those things are happening right now in the middle east, modern people's war is going on there. Search Hezbollah). Local media can help you send false Info to your enemy(Ukraine), correct false info sent by your enemy, and tell your people what is going on, which is what Russia is doing now(actually they are doing quite well, on Russia's internet).
The outfit of the people's war changes a lot. But the core idea, to treat your people well in the correct ways, then they can give you huge support you have never seen, is still working to this day.
This is also what makes our party the party. To treat your people correctly, to make them trust you and support you with real actions in the long term, you need to do things well for them in the long term. This is why Xi's anti-corruption campaign is defined as important as the existence of the party. For if the corruption goes too far, the party will lose what makes it the party and will surely fall soon.
Poor English, sorry for that.
Not sure why you are saying “Not true” when basically you agreed with most of what I described except for some minor details. Generally we agree that civilians should be undertaking civil tasks.
Let me clarify that mass killing worked in Malaysia because the communists were supported primarily by the Chinese minority. The British used their divide and conquer strategy and was able to gain the support of the Malay population by laying the groundwork for the current Bumiputera (Malay Supremacy) policy.
If the military is training drone operators, these people are less normal civilians and become more civilian staff of the military. That being said, the big issue is less with this part, but launching attacks on the other hand...
A more "20th Century" way of looking at it, the OP is suggesting to basically give a bunch of mortars to civilians and say "have at it!". The PLA is an organized, professional army. You don't want to give weapons to questionably disciplined people who might fire them without a confirmation of the target. This is a recipe for friendly fire or possibly compromising an operation underway because someone was "just trying to help".
For the relevance of the topic at hand, PRC already has support of its own population, so all the "gaining trust" part is not really a part of things as they are. In Taiwan they definitely would not be fighting as guerillas.
Let me clarify that mass killing worked in Malaysia because the communists were supported primarily by the Chinese minority. The British used their divide and conquer strategy and was able to gain the support of the Malay population by laying the groundwork for the current Bumiputera (Malay Supremacy) policy.
If the military is training drone operators, these people are less normal civilians and become more civilian staff of the military. That being said, the big issue is less with this part, but launching attacks on the other hand...
A more "20th Century" way of looking at it, the OP is suggesting to basically give a bunch of mortars to civilians and say "have at it!". The PLA is an organized, professional army. You don't want to give weapons to questionably disciplined people who might fire them without a confirmation of the target. This is a recipe for friendly fire or possibly compromising an operation underway because someone was "just trying to help".
For the relevance of the topic at hand, PRC already has support of its own population, so all the "gaining trust" part is not really a part of things as they are. In Taiwan they definitely would not be fighting as guerillas.
Well, my bad, I didn't say it clearly enough. I should only quote one paragraph, which is the part about the communist guerillas in Malaysia. What I really wanna say is, that is not a people's war. People's war, first need to get help from the people, not minority groups.
The thing is, in people's war, it should be impossible for the enemy to identify your soldier from the civilian. If you only get a small group of people which is perhaps 10 or 20 percent of the local population, that is not people's war, that minority's war. In ideal situations, you should get support from most of the local population. Civilians and the army should be one. The civilians and soldiers, driven by the same goal, support each other in all kinds of ways. Soldiers become farmers and workers when needed, which is why we still keep the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps building stuff in Xinjiang, and civilians attended military operations when the army calls for their help.
When your people are easily divided and conquered by your enemies, that means you do not get their true support from the beginning, and you fail to win their support from your enemies. That is not the failure of people's war, that is the failure of yourselves.
Well, I find it hard to explain some common sense for Chinese people to your guys, for you have never seen such a thing. People's war does not just have "people" as a title, it means you need at least get support from most of your people. Then, organize them to do whatever they can for the army(government, party, and so on). In other words, during wartime, in the people's war concept, you should regard everyone as part of your army(government, party, and so on)(as peripheral members), treat them as one of you, and actually use them as one of you.
Let me take modern china society as an example, to see how the people's war work, and how they get everyone into the war.
We got everyone included in a huge system working together to support our army(party, government) on the battlefield(the way to make our lives better). This huge system is linked first by our common will to fight against our enemy(poverty, corruption,.etc), and second by our shared interest and trust between people and its army(party, government). In modern society, that means factories get military orders and deal with them with their full heart. That means everyone on the internet tries to get useful information for the government. That means when needed, everyone in china will join this war(against poverty, corruption, or other enemies) one way or another, lead by our party and government.
This huge system was formed and linked by party members(more than 90 million, nearly everywhere in china) including the commissars(in the army), party branches in the companies which have 3 party members at least, the party members in the government, and the party itself. In this way, Chinese society can work as a whole, on the same schedule, led by the party.
In China, nearly everyone is influenced and benefited from the party in one way or another. In this way, when war comes out, the whole society will move as the party's will, which is the people's will for the party is locked with people, towards the same goal: to fight and win the war(with poverty, with corruption, with the USA, just all the same) in the way that fits people in china most.
It is nearly impossible to tell who is working for the army(party), who is a soldier or not under this situation.
The thing is, in people's war, it should be impossible for the enemy to identify your soldier from the civilian. If you only get a small group of people which is perhaps 10 or 20 percent of the local population, that is not people's war, that minority's war. In ideal situations, you should get support from most of the local population. Civilians and the army should be one. The civilians and soldiers, driven by the same goal, support each other in all kinds of ways. Soldiers become farmers and workers when needed, which is why we still keep the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps building stuff in Xinjiang, and civilians attended military operations when the army calls for their help.
When your people are easily divided and conquered by your enemies, that means you do not get their true support from the beginning, and you fail to win their support from your enemies. That is not the failure of people's war, that is the failure of yourselves.
Well, I find it hard to explain some common sense for Chinese people to your guys, for you have never seen such a thing. People's war does not just have "people" as a title, it means you need at least get support from most of your people. Then, organize them to do whatever they can for the army(government, party, and so on). In other words, during wartime, in the people's war concept, you should regard everyone as part of your army(government, party, and so on)(as peripheral members), treat them as one of you, and actually use them as one of you.
Let me take modern china society as an example, to see how the people's war work, and how they get everyone into the war.
We got everyone included in a huge system working together to support our army(party, government) on the battlefield(the way to make our lives better). This huge system is linked first by our common will to fight against our enemy(poverty, corruption,.etc), and second by our shared interest and trust between people and its army(party, government). In modern society, that means factories get military orders and deal with them with their full heart. That means everyone on the internet tries to get useful information for the government. That means when needed, everyone in china will join this war(against poverty, corruption, or other enemies) one way or another, lead by our party and government.
This huge system was formed and linked by party members(more than 90 million, nearly everywhere in china) including the commissars(in the army), party branches in the companies which have 3 party members at least, the party members in the government, and the party itself. In this way, Chinese society can work as a whole, on the same schedule, led by the party.
In China, nearly everyone is influenced and benefited from the party in one way or another. In this way, when war comes out, the whole society will move as the party's will, which is the people's will for the party is locked with people, towards the same goal: to fight and win the war(with poverty, with corruption, with the USA, just all the same) in the way that fits people in china most.
It is nearly impossible to tell who is working for the army(party), who is a soldier or not under this situation.
True.
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