Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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supersnoop

Major
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Although a little off-topic, I will continue because it does have relevance to both Ukraine and Taiwan (especially with all that stupid Kuma academy BS going on).

Well, my bad, I didn't say it clearly enough. I should only quote one paragraph, which is the part about the communist guerillas in Malaysia. What I really wanna say is, that is not a people's war. People's war, first need to get help from the people, not minority groups.

...When your people are easily divided and conquered by your enemies, that means you do not get their true support from the beginning, and you fail to win their support from your enemies. That is not the failure of people's war, that is the failure of yourselves.

A revolutionary movement cannot be born automatically as the majority. It has to grow from a minority first, not necessarily along ethnic lines. This is just a matter of statistics.

It is easy to criticize the failure of this movement as some historical footnote, but when the enemy is burning down your house, starving and poisoning your people (Agent Orange was first deployed here, but just more famous in Vietnam), and publicly displaying the heads of your comrades, you might question the commitment to your cause too. Ultimately such brutal tactics were able to dispel the possibility of the movement gaining a critical mass.

Well, I find it hard to explain some common sense for Chinese people to your guys, for you have never seen such a thing. People's war does not just have "people" as a title, it means you need at least get support from most of your people. Then, organize them to do whatever they can for the army(government, party, and so on). In other words, during wartime, in the people's war concept, you should regard everyone as part of your army(government, party, and so on)(as peripheral members), treat them as one of you, and actually use them as one of you.

Let me take modern china society as an example, to see how the people's war work, and how they get everyone into the war.
We got everyone included in a huge system working together to support our army(party, government) on the battlefield(the way to make our lives better). This huge system is linked first by our common will to fight against our enemy(poverty, corruption,.etc), and second by our shared interest and trust between people and its army(party, government). In modern society, that means factories get military orders and deal with them with their full heart. That means everyone on the internet tries to get useful information for the government. That means when needed, everyone in china will join this war(against poverty, corruption, or other enemies) one way or another, lead by our party and government.

In China, nearly everyone is influenced and benefited from the party in one way or another. In this way, when war comes out, the whole society will move as the party's will, which is the people's will for the party is locked with people, towards the same goal: to fight and win the war(with poverty, with corruption, with the USA, just all the same) in the way that fits people in china most.

It is nearly impossible to tell who is working for the army(party), who is a soldier or not under this situation.

What you are talking about is a whole of society mobilization, not the historical application of People's War (especially with respect to the Civil War). Whole of society mobilization can be achieved regardless of the existence of the Party if the survival of the nation is at stake. In World War 2, the people of Western nations were rationing materials, able bodied labour working in factories, saving money for war bonds, etc.

This is not to discount the ability of the Party to perform this mobilization task, but it is not integral. This is also not to discount the achievements of the government. I am not from PRC, but I have heard from some things from older generations like "At least communists don't make you pay for school!".

You are basically saying there is no line between government/army/civilians in the war, but of course there is. A Senior NCO once said in a lecture, "we will support the country whenever we are needed, if there are floods or other disasters, but never forget that the main job of a soldier is to fight". There is the actual war, that is the fighting part done by soldiers, and there is the war effort, those are the supporting tasks that every one else can contribute to.

Don't overromanticize history, although the support of the people was integral, the fact is that most of the Red Army/PLA leadership were either career soldiers or formally trained officers from Military Academies.

Back to why this is relevant to this thread. In Taiwan, there is a widely growing misconception that the citizens of Ukraine are mobilized to fight in a way like the romantic/historical sense of People's war. However, this is false. Since 2014, the armed forces was receiving professional training from NATO forces, much of the fighting strength are professional soldiers.

The world news and Taiwanese media were boasting of the donation of 100 million US dollars to train 3 million civil defenders. This is an utter joke to anyone who does the math. The ~$30 or so is not even enough to buy 1 day of meals for one person.

I can guarantee you, there is no hope for them if they cling onto such fiction. Even with a fraction of the mobilization of the mainland's resources.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
China should fully expect and be acutely prepared for the use of kamikaze

Not true. People's war is about how to mobilize people and do whatever they can except directly facing well-trained well-equipped enemies. Mass killings don't work because that not only means guerillas lost their supporters but so do the invaders. You can't get resources and products from land without anyone alive. If you want to build real control over somewhere, like Iraq or Afghanistan, either you kill everyone and get people who support you, which just costs too much, or you need local people to cooperate with you, and get you enough resources and products to pay for your army's further operation. If you can't, you will have to pay the price with a huge amount of money, resources, and lives. Like Americans did in the middle-east.

The core idea of people's war, in short, is to treat your people well in the correct ways, then they can give you huge support you have never seen. To do this, you need to help your people live better and get their support, not in words but in actions.

Like, suppose there is a group of enemies heading toward us, how many are they? Do they have trucks, tanks, or heavy artillery? Treat your people well, soon you find that people who support you are your eyes. Again, this is not letting them face the enemy directly, but just telling you what they see during their days, like sending some photos to specific telegram channels. Both Ukraine and Russia are asking their people to do things like that. So as an example, Russians rather send key information to specific pro-Russian channels than just Twitter. These pro-Russia channels gather and filter out valid information and send them to their government for free, which save a lot of work for Russian intelligence.

Now I use what happened once in my motherland during WW2 as an example. Our people tell us what they see, get medicine from the city for us,.etc. In return, our soldiers help them with production, farming, and business. Build hidden military factories of our own in the middle of the mountain, and make sure we can get guns and ammo by ourselves. Tell the farmers to evacuate to the hidden shelter nearby built by soldiers and locals when the Japanese army comes to execute mass killing (yes, the Japanese Army during WW2 did a lot of massacres in China, which is why they happened to be fascist), and rebuild villages for locals after enemy set every house they find on fire. Fight against our enemy at their weakest point, sell or deliver some of the captured goods especially food to the starving people, for free or at a very low price. Send party members to the villages, negotiate with our people, know what they need, get them what we can give, live and work with them, and win their support and trust. Organize people who trust us with elite party members (elite here means trained for how to get these things done, most of them have good records) as leaders, defend their village if possible, hide people into shelters when necessary, call our army to help,.etc. The key is, people support their army (and party, government), army (and party, government) must support people in return(which is why our army is called the people's army). People won't support local guerillas from the beginning, for supporting guerrillas may mean the death of the whole village/town/city. But you must make them believe that you can help them live better while getting more invaders killed, not just a day or two, but months even years, decades. In this way, your enemy can't get enough resources to support their further operation, while we can.

We build a strong connection between our people and the army/the government/the party. Only when we are a whole, we can support each other and make everyone's lives better.

One may say that things have changed by technology. True. But people still can help you in many ways. They can hide ammunition and guns in certain places, and donate money and drones(Russians donate a lot of DJI drones to their army). After some special training, volunteers can be good drone operators, who send all things they get to a special military officer, who did the professional intelligence stuff. Civilians can help you do the construction stuff, cover the whole thing up, and make a small town into a well-covered trap for enemies like the Israeli or American army (those things are happening right now in the middle east, modern people's war is going on there. Search Hezbollah). Local media can help you send false Info to your enemy(Ukraine), correct false info sent by your enemy, and tell your people what is going on, which is what Russia is doing now(actually they are doing quite well, on Russia's internet).

The outfit of the people's war changes a lot. But the core idea, to treat your people well in the correct ways, then they can give you huge support you have never seen, is still working to this day.

This is also what makes our party the party. To treat your people correctly, to make them trust you and support you with real actions in the long term, you need to do things well for them in the long term. This is why Xi's anti-corruption campaign is defined as important as the existence of the party. For if the corruption goes too far, the party will lose what makes it the party and will surely fall soon.

Poor English, sorry for that.

There's no need to crowdfund for Shaheed type drones for example.

Given that they cost about $20K each, that is less than even a JDAM or SDB-1.
100,000 drones would only cost a mere $2 Billion for example.

I suspect this is why we haven't see more PGMs (such as JDAMs or SDB-1) which are designed to be launched from aircraft.
 

infinity_wor;d

New Member
Registered Member
Well, I guess we have different views on war. Fine then. Just one thing,
... the fact is that most of the Red Army/PLA leadership were either career soldiers or formally trained officers from Military Academies.
Most of the military officers in the Red Army at the time(the 1930s-40s) grow in battle before studying in Red Army's Military Academies. They study knowledge about war during their fight, from books and other officers. Many of them were farmers and can't read a single word. Party members teach them how to read, how to fight, and news from the whole world, about the process of WW2. Then they use their skills and knowledge on the battlefield, and those who proved to be good leaders will get a chance to study more in Red Army's Military Academie in Yan'an.

During decades of war, most of our officers come in this way. When you look at it in long term, you can clearly see how people choose to fight and become well-trained soldiers/officers, for they wanna support our fight.

Ukraine and Taiwan both have no good records on such a thing. Both of them are really good at sending their army to die in my eyes.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine and Taiwan both have no good records on such a thing. Both of them are really good at sending their army to die in my eyes.
To be fair casualties only matter if you lose. If Ukraine can force the Russians to sue for peace through throwing tens of thousands into the meat grinder why not? If they win they keep their country in one piece, if they lose then well what's there to discuss?

That was basically the mindset of every war since time immorium, it's only after we see the stomp that was the gulf war and subsequent Iraqi invasion that we became strangely adverse to battlefield losses. Heck in the Vietnam war the US lost close to 10,000 aircraft without batting an eye.

If anything this current conflict is not even showing the true potential of two industrialized nations fighting at full war economy. They are trying to fight a 21st century war using late 20th century weaponry after all (in numbers that matter).
 

infinity_wor;d

New Member
Registered Member
Come on! Send your army to death is not the same thing as having no way but send them to death, do I speak it clear enough? In China, we called the latter sacrifice. If you have time and resources to equip and train your army, no san leader should send a poor-trained/poor-equipped army to death for that is just pointless. What happened in WW2 is, there is just no time(Russia) or resources(China). What is happening in Ukraine is so-called invaders are sitting at their defense position, waiting for Zelensky to send his poor-trained army to death. If you take a look at what is going on, Russians have been sitting there for months. Is that clear enough?

Do you guys understand the differences between necessary (or unavoidable) sacrifice and pointless death?
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Come on! Send your army to death is not the same thing as having no way but send them to death, do I speak it clear enough? In China, we called the latter sacrifice. If you have time and resources to equip and train your army, no san leader should send a poor-trained/poor-equipped army to death for that is just pointless. What happened in WW2 is, there is just no time(Russia) or resources(China). What is happening in Ukraine is so-called invaders are sitting at their defense position, waiting for Zelensky to send his poor-trained army to death. If you take a look at what is going on, Russians have been sitting there for months. Is that clear enough?

Do you guys understand the differences between necessary (or unavoidable) sacrifice and pointless death?
This is the weakest point of the Russian army before fresh reserves arrive. This is the strongest point of Ukrainian army before west support wanes.

At this point in time why would Ukraine not maximize its gains? A recaptured Kherson will leave Russia in a difficult strategic situation and will cripple Crimean water supply. Throwing the kitchen sink at Kherson is the correct move, no matter the casualties.

To a outside observer it may not seem like do or die, but if 20% of China was at risk why would they not throw a river of bodies at it? China suffered horrendous casualties during the Korean war, would you say they were sending the men to their deaths?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is the weakest point of the Russian army before fresh reserves arrive. This is the strongest point of Ukrainian army before west support wanes.

At this point in time why would Ukraine not maximize its gains? A recaptured Kherson will leave Russia in a difficult strategic situation and will cripple Crimean water supply. Throwing the kitchen sink at Kherson is the correct move, no matter the casualties.

To a outside observer it may not seem like do or die, but if 20% of China was at risk why would they not throw a river of bodies at it? China suffered horrendous casualties during the Korean war, would you say they were sending the men to their deaths?
China inflicted equal casualties during the Korean War though, albeit more to South Korean formations as part of the UN forces, and not the US directly. High casualties is worth if you inflict similar casualties.

koreanwar-1.jpg
 

infinity_wor;d

New Member
Registered Member
This is the weakest point of the Russian army before fresh reserves arrive. This is the strongest point of Ukrainian army before west support wanes.

At this point in time why would Ukraine not maximize its gains? A recaptured Kherson will leave Russia in a difficult strategic situation and will cripple Crimean water supply. Throwing the kitchen sink at Kherson is the correct move, no matter the casualties.

To a outside observer it may not seem like do or die, but if 20% of China was at risk why would they not throw a at it? China suffered horrendous casualties during the Korean war, would you say they were sending the men to their deaths?
The point is a river of bodies does not work in the Ukraine case. While, actually, in any case, if there is no other work to improve their status. Bodies can do nothing. Only well-organized people, not dead people, can make things done.

Is it possible for Ukraine to restore its military industry to sustain its war? Is there any western country focusing its industry productivity on military equipment while supporting Ukraine? Do you know that the USA is calling for help on military production because they do not have enough artillery shells to supply Ukraine Amy? So do tanks and other armored vehicles? No need to say that the Ukraine Army is dealing considerblely fewer casualties to Russians in nearly every battle, which shows that even with the help of Nato, they still can't beat Russia at its weakest point, as you say, in the current state.

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Then why can't Zelensky just stop throwing his men(and women) to Russia's defense position and get nothing valuable? Can't he just, give his men more time to train and entrench their current position, save their strength for a counterattack in the future?

Oh, yes! because most governments in the west are asking him to make more trouble for Russia! Otherwise, they will cut off their supply to Ukraine! I am such a genius!
 
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