Don't overestimate the significance of those deals with the pacific island nations.
Even if they hypothetically could be used to station military forces sometime in the future (which frankly is not a given), the scale of the military forces that would be needed to pose any sort of meaningful presence towards Hawaii, and the vulnerability of any bases and forces to strikes and the vulnerability of forces there to being cut off from resupply, is well beyond the scope of what the PLA could attain within the next decade or more.
For those pacific islands to be any sort of staging area that are able to check or threaten Hawaii, requires the PLA to successfully establish a defensible foothold all the way out from the first island chain to the second island chain (including Guam), and having defeated the bulk of US mobile air and naval forces in the pacific to begin with, first.
This of course is assuming that those nations would even consent to a significant Chinese military presence to begin with, because just as many nations in Asia are not keen to be major US military facilities with offensive missile capabilities, I suspect many of these pacific island nations will not be keen to host Chinese military facilities with power projection potential either. This isn't even considering US and Australian counter-diplomacy efforts either, which can easily change things quite rapidly.
I agree of course with the prerequisites of high capable nuclear deterrence and conventional warfighting capabilities.
However the viability of hypothetical bases in the pacific islands being able to field any sort of credible threat against Hawaii or CONTUS to force the US to hold back a couple of carriers, is entirely dependent on the PLA being able to prosecute a successful large scale high intensity conflict in the entirety of the western pacific to begin with (assuming the pacific island nations consent to a meaningful Chinese military presence at all), as a result of the relative isolation of those islands from supporting PLA capabilities during pre-conflict peacetime strategic geography.
Fully agree with you.
China will have enough nuclear missiles for a very credible nuclear deterrence (and with far less geopolitical risks) long before she has military base(s) in those Pacific islands and enough naval and other military assets to make then a credible threat to Hawaii and CONUS.