Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Rettam Stacf

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Don't overestimate the significance of those deals with the pacific island nations.

Even if they hypothetically could be used to station military forces sometime in the future (which frankly is not a given), the scale of the military forces that would be needed to pose any sort of meaningful presence towards Hawaii, and the vulnerability of any bases and forces to strikes and the vulnerability of forces there to being cut off from resupply, is well beyond the scope of what the PLA could attain within the next decade or more.

For those pacific islands to be any sort of staging area that are able to check or threaten Hawaii, requires the PLA to successfully establish a defensible foothold all the way out from the first island chain to the second island chain (including Guam), and having defeated the bulk of US mobile air and naval forces in the pacific to begin with, first.


This of course is assuming that those nations would even consent to a significant Chinese military presence to begin with, because just as many nations in Asia are not keen to be major US military facilities with offensive missile capabilities, I suspect many of these pacific island nations will not be keen to host Chinese military facilities with power projection potential either. This isn't even considering US and Australian counter-diplomacy efforts either, which can easily change things quite rapidly.




I agree of course with the prerequisites of high capable nuclear deterrence and conventional warfighting capabilities.
However the viability of hypothetical bases in the pacific islands being able to field any sort of credible threat against Hawaii or CONTUS to force the US to hold back a couple of carriers, is entirely dependent on the PLA being able to prosecute a successful large scale high intensity conflict in the entirety of the western pacific to begin with (assuming the pacific island nations consent to a meaningful Chinese military presence at all), as a result of the relative isolation of those islands from supporting PLA capabilities during pre-conflict peacetime strategic geography.

Fully agree with you.

China will have enough nuclear missiles for a very credible nuclear deterrence (and with far less geopolitical risks) long before she has military base(s) in those Pacific islands and enough naval and other military assets to make then a credible threat to Hawaii and CONUS.
 

solarz

Brigadier
So... if China doesn't really care about unifying Taiwan, and the US doesn't really care about defending Taiwan, then Taiwan would never declare independence anyway, and thus, there will never be a war over Taiwan....

I guess all these Taiwan war threads are a total waste of time then.

If the TW government was rational and puts the interests of TW above their personal interests, then yes, China can simply maintain the status quo until it can culturally and economically absorb TW. That's the peaceful reunification route.

The danger is of course the TW govt may not be rational, it may be putting their own self interests above that of the people. They may cross China's redline out of greed or ignorance.
 

BoraTas

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Russia practically cut off Ukraine in supply chain before invading. so the impact on GDP related to Ukraine minimal. while Taiwan still important trade partner to China so impact much larger on GDP.
Unimportant. And my argument was about China avoiding military solutions. It had nothing to do with the GDP of China.
Russia definitely not USSR airforce. its name is changed to Aerospace force. the word Space is now added for integration. Ukraine is unique situation where it has to work as airborne artillery in close support. but it is not how it will operate in high end combat. just look at size of platforms. even the newest AWACS use more powerful engines and those engines are now capable up to 20 tons.
you may want look a little closer to Syria. Israel has done thousands of strikes. and those strikes data is collected by Russia to improve air defenses. and battle damage assessment of impacts. They know whether 50kg or 1500kg warhead needed depend on target. Russian air force is usually airborne when Israel strikes. they want to collect maximum data to improve all the sensors. they may even want to observe missile lunches from fighters.
Russia still uses its tactical aviation as a tool to harass and stop enemy air operations. That is the same with the USSR. Russian air force's training and equipment are wholly inappropriate for China to use against Taiwan. China needs to be able to send in complex and large strike packages to shoot down enemy aircraft, neutralize air defenses, bomb airfields and then move on to the softening operations. It needs substantial SEAD and ISR capabilities to do the same against Japanese airfields in case the USA and Japan intervened. Russia would have it much better in Ukraine if its focus was the same too. Russia has monetary and strategic constraints like having 30-35 US-allied nations next to it on the East European Plain so what it is doing is probably a better choice for its own situation. But it is inappropriate for a large offensive operation in Ukraine. It would be even more inappropriate against Taiwan.
When sanctions were imposed. almost all consumer factories production got impacted in Russia regardless of tech involved. China simply cant replace the components on so many different products. and this is reflected in sales number of vehicles that is 1/8 of weekly numbers even in May.
what will happen to dislocation of workers that will be certainly on much larger scale in China if similar situation arise?
Industrial production is very hard to reconfigure. Then there are the issues of legal matters and consumer preferences. Of course, China wasn't able to replace Western components the Russian industry uses in 3 months.
Russia still has Turkey/ Middleast that have very large international aviation fleets and connectivity so air travel still at reasonable prices. those counter parties are willing to bear certain risk of doing business. do you think Japan/ Singapore or any other can bear that risks once western sanctions are implemented on China? start with de-certification of airline fleet. look at Non-Oil trade of UAE to get idea what i am referring to.
I can't see how this is relevant.
Russia operates contract soldiers with high salaries in warzone with secondary militias, contractors.

how will shutting down communication lower morale? rather communication will inform the enemy that despite there miserable condition known to the world. no one is seriously considering there rescue. and those who can bargain for it are getting embarrassed.
when external air and missile power is routinely flying around at low altitude over a population for months. this alone should tell the the population to exit unless they are zombies. this social media is for un professional force.

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Social media was used by Ukraine to mobilize people both in Ukraine and abroad. It was also used for collecting intelligence since it makes every civilian with a smartphone an intelligence collector. The footages that are coming out are being used for atrocity propaganda against Russia by the Western MSM. Shutting down civilian communications in the country you are doing offensive operations in is very beneficial. Ideally, the only content that should be reaching the people should be PRC propaganda during the war.
Practically every airfield where Ka-52 operates. Mi-8/Mi-26 also operates. it all about mobility to tactical level. i am sure there are recon teams airdrop that are operating behind the lines that no one will advertise.
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Assault, EW and combat attack helicopters need to have similar ranges for large field operations flying at sub optimal altitude.
note the lack of side door. these things are designed from ground up for extra fuel
Of course there is a place for airborne operations. Preventing enemy withdrawals by landing forces behind withdrawing enemies, special force or recon team injections (as you mentioned), rapid reinforcement, etc... But airborne forces are not optimal for use against non-degraded enemies since they are light infantry-only forces. China can not depend on them to take over an airfield or port on their own. They will likely be used during initial landings to support amphibious forces who will be initially heavily outnumbered.
 

tphuang

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Fully agree with you.

China will have enough nuclear missiles for a very credible nuclear deterrence (and with far less geopolitical risks) long before she has military base(s) in those Pacific islands and enough naval and other military assets to make then a credible threat to Hawaii and CONUS.
Well, nuclear deterrence needs to happen in the next 5 years. The roadmap for one or two Pacific base + visiting rights to a couple more will be something that's 15 to 20 years away. I don't think anyone that is arguing against building up nuclear deterrence.
 

supersnoop

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Remember articles like these?

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A few weeks ago, the media made it seem like victory over Russia was a fait accompli.
Now it seems like the tide is turning the other way.
You could probably ask the question, "Is the US revaluating their strategy against China in Taiwan given how the latest developments in Ukraine"
 

supersnoop

Major
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Just wanted to add a few elaborations:
1. Javelin (if the latest information is to be believed) and other ATGM is effective, but way more overhyped compared to Artillery/Smart Munitions
2. The logistics supply is astounding (like Ukraine is able to use up years of stocks in months, Russia is pulling out T-62M, etc.)
3. Europe is beginning to ration energy, what shortages would the world endure if China's exports were cut off?
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
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This video is about how corruption has destroyed the Russian military. How bad is corruption it in the Chinese military ?

corruption in the chinese forces was pretty bad in the 2000s til recent years. but Xi waged a pretty brutal campaign to crack down on it so ostensibly it is drastically suppressed. now even back in the dark ages of the 2000s corruption in the chinese forces was likely nothing like how it is in the ukrainian army now, which looks a lot more like the kmt forces.
 

zhangjim

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Secondly, Taiwan's value lies in what China gets it will gain and what it will pay for if it doesn't. I think one of the costs of not getting it is

the Communist Party's inability to clearly describe the history between the Xinhai Revolution and the retreat of the KMT to Taiwan, out of

a need for unification with Taiwan. The result is the low legitimacy of the Communist government, because while it overthrew the previous

government it failed to completely destroy it, and it also failed to clearly portray the need for itself to be in power vis-à-vis the previous

government. In Shanghai textbooks, for example, descriptions of the war against Japan are limited to the two battles initiated by the

Eighth Route Army, namely the Battle of Pingxingguan and the Battle of the Hundred Regiments, and the rest are the major battles of

the KMT army. If this is all you teach the next generation, then you will have the impression that the Chinese Communist army did not

do anything in the war against Japan and how such a government could be in power.
Questions about regime legitimacy are not as important as one might think.
The KMT regime lost support because it could not solve any of the real problems in China at the time.
What they are doing is very reminiscent of the current Ukrainian regime,the difference is that the Japanese are more brutal and savage conquerors.
Only a few disgruntled opponents trying to promote the KMT regime and warlord Chiang Kai-shek as great and glorious heroes,and the CPC has unnecessarily over-publicized KMT's deeds because of the misjudgment of the so-called "united front", without revealing much about the KMT regime as a complex and confusing interest group.

When I see the scene where the Ukrainian regime is being directed by the irresponsible Western military advisors,I can always think of the past: conscription basically failed, and the KMT regime had to capture civilians on the street for forced recruitment,soldiers were left without weapons and supplies, while high-ranking officials were allowed to embezzle profusely.

No one can sleep forever on the merits of the past,the resistance against the Japanese invaders was for survival, not for a few "leaders".The KMT regime and their military demonstrated utter incompetence and dereliction of duty during the war against Japan, and the greedy leadership was completely incapable of addressing the development needs facing China.

You can't expect the Chinese to endure decades more of oppressive politics(the longest curfew ever!) like those on the island of Taiwan,and the KMT regime in mainland China relied even more on the degenerate local warlords and gentry class,these local rulers were even more brutal and disregarded the law.

As for the recovery of Taiwan, this is a common demand of nationalism, geopolitics and regime legitimacy.
 
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