solarz
Brigadier
Keyword being "might".
In actuality, the current Ukraine developments have far more potential to end the reign of the petrodollar than a Taiwan conflict.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Keyword being "might".
In actuality, the current Ukraine developments have far more potential to end the reign of the petrodollar than a Taiwan conflict.
I would say low, but not something that can be ignored or not prepared for though.
That would only be true if the Taiwan conflict doesn't trigger a US-China war. And that would only happen if the US withdraws from the Pacific unilaterally (in which case, the question of the USD being the reserve currency is moot anyway.)
In any other scenario, the idea that the US will avoid going to war with China over Taiwan is an exceedingly optimistic assumption that the PLA is clearly not making. If the PLA was assuming that, it probably would've already invaded Taiwan.
solarz
Brigadier
I disagree completely.
The reason China hasn't initiated armed reunification is not because of a fear of the US. The Chinese government simply has no wish to inflict death and suffering upon the people of Taiwan unless absolutely necessary in order to preserve Chinese territorial integrity. It is also why China spelled out the conditions for armed reunification in its laws.
People forget that even in the 90s, the PLA had plans for retaking Taiwan in the eventuality of an independence declaration. The focus was on a decapitation strike in order to present the US with a fait accompli. This shows that the PLA does not see a US-China conflict over Taiwan as inevitable.
In fact, if you watch Chinese SMEs, the common consensus is that Taiwan is not a core interest of the US.
“苞米干事立功了！” (Confidentiality officers do a great job), their comments on your views
So... if China doesn't really care about unifying Taiwan, and the US doesn't really care about defending Taiwan, then Taiwan would never declare independence anyway, and thus, there will never be a war over Taiwan....
I guess all these Taiwan war threads are a total waste of time then.
The danger is if the US declares independence for them (like fomerly-fat mikey wanted)
how would that work? would they sidestep tsai?
I mean like a defacto declaration like opening an embassy, appointing an ambassador, US presidential visit, formally declaring end of one-China policy, etc.
Would they sidestep Tsai (or whoever else is in power)? Honestly, who knows? Before Kelly Craft's airplane was turned around, obviously the Tsai administration must have known she was coming, was Tsai just rolling the dice? Following orders? I don't have the answer on that one.
Firstly, I don't think arguing about whether Taiwan matters in this thread fits in with this one.
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Secondly, Taiwan's value lies in what China gets it will gain and what it will pay for if it doesn't. I think one of the costs of not getting it is
the Communist Party's inability to clearly describe the history between the Xinhai Revolution and the retreat of the KMT to Taiwan, out of
a need for unification with Taiwan. The result is the low legitimacy of the Communist government, because while it overthrew the previous
government it failed to completely destroy it, and it also failed to clearly portray the need for itself to be in power vis-à-vis the previous
government. In Shanghai textbooks, for example, descriptions of the war against Japan are limited to the two battles initiated by the
Eighth Route Army, namely the Battle of Pingxingguan and the Battle of the Hundred Regiments, and the rest are the major battles of
the KMT army. If this is all you teach the next generation, then you will have the impression that the Chinese Communist army did not
do anything in the war against Japan and how such a government could be in power.
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Thirdly, I think some members have unrealistic illusions about the Taiwanese army, and about China's too, let's put that in the next
paragraph. Ukraine has proved that a small group of extremists can hold an entire army hostage and continue to fight. Many members
of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Brigade are recruited precisely because they are soft, they will not resist, and it is because they are
soft that they are afraid to desert and surrender. It took courage to desert and surrender, and the result was that they were left alive in
their positions to be blown up by Russian artillery fire. I think the same will happen to the Taiwanese army, it is because of their
cowardice that they will be forced to continue to resist until they die, rather than collapse at the first touch as some members think.
Also the Taiwanese army is far more underhanded than some members can imagine, their schools are built directly next to military
installations and it goes without saying as to what they are used for. Recent exercises in Taiwan have deployed tanks in
the Matsu temple, move your hands and you will find pictures. If your military doesn't care about the lives of its own civilians, why
should I? Even these civilians are willing to vote for these parties, the pro-unification New Party did not even get 2% of the votes, so
why should I care if you don't even care about your own life?
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Fourthly, there are unrealistic illusions about the Chinese army. Some members like to use the example of liberating Shanghai without
the use of heavy weapons. I think this example no longer makes sense. Shanghai was the financial centre of the country at the time,
and taking it intact would have been good for stabilising prices across the country, so may I ask if Taipei had the same value? Not really.
Also as times change, technical equipment becomes more valuable, as do human lives. During the Liberation War the Chinese
Communist army did not have so many technical weapons and could have had a fighting chance with rifles, but now if technical
weapons are lost the army effectively loses its fighting power. If heavy weapons are not used against the cities of Taiwan, then there is
no doubt that there will be a huge loss of technical weapons, and China does not have such a large stockpile of tanks and infantry
vehicles as Russia does, and the army will be out of action for a much longer period of time. In summary I think that if we fight Taiwan
we will definitely use heavy weapons in the cities.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Secondly, Taiwan's value lies in what China gets it will gain and what it will pay for if it doesn't. I think one of the costs of not getting it is
the Communist Party's inability to clearly describe the history between the Xinhai Revolution and the retreat of the KMT to Taiwan, out of
a need for unification with Taiwan. The result is the low legitimacy of the Communist government, because while it overthrew the previous
government it failed to completely destroy it, and it also failed to clearly portray the need for itself to be in power vis-à-vis the previous
government. In Shanghai textbooks, for example, descriptions of the war against Japan are limited to the two battles initiated by the
Eighth Route Army, namely the Battle of Pingxingguan and the Battle of the Hundred Regiments, and the rest are the major battles of
the KMT army. If this is all you teach the next generation, then you will have the impression that the Chinese Communist army did not
do anything in the war against Japan and how such a government could be in power.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thirdly, I think some members have unrealistic illusions about the Taiwanese army, and about China's too, let's put that in the next
paragraph. Ukraine has proved that a small group of extremists can hold an entire army hostage and continue to fight. Many members
of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Brigade are recruited precisely because they are soft, they will not resist, and it is because they are
soft that they are afraid to desert and surrender. It took courage to desert and surrender, and the result was that they were left alive in
their positions to be blown up by Russian artillery fire. I think the same will happen to the Taiwanese army, it is because of their
cowardice that they will be forced to continue to resist until they die, rather than collapse at the first touch as some members think.
Also the Taiwanese army is far more underhanded than some members can imagine, their schools are built directly next to military
installations and it goes without saying as to what they are used for. Recent exercises in Taiwan have deployed tanks in
the Matsu temple, move your hands and you will find pictures. If your military doesn't care about the lives of its own civilians, why
should I? Even these civilians are willing to vote for these parties, the pro-unification New Party did not even get 2% of the votes, so
why should I care if you don't even care about your own life?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fourthly, there are unrealistic illusions about the Chinese army. Some members like to use the example of liberating Shanghai without
the use of heavy weapons. I think this example no longer makes sense. Shanghai was the financial centre of the country at the time,
and taking it intact would have been good for stabilising prices across the country, so may I ask if Taipei had the same value? Not really.
Also as times change, technical equipment becomes more valuable, as do human lives. During the Liberation War the Chinese
Communist army did not have so many technical weapons and could have had a fighting chance with rifles, but now if technical
weapons are lost the army effectively loses its fighting power. If heavy weapons are not used against the cities of Taiwan, then there is
no doubt that there will be a huge loss of technical weapons, and China does not have such a large stockpile of tanks and infantry
vehicles as Russia does, and the army will be out of action for a much longer period of time. In summary I think that if we fight Taiwan
we will definitely use heavy weapons in the cities.
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