No one said it's easy. But that doesnt make it impossible either.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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No one said it's easy. But that doesnt make it impossible either.
Aerial attack takes time, I think 2 weeks is a perfect time to complete the air preparation for the amphibious operation.
Exactly. Suppose mobilizing troops take a month. Why would the PLA waste this time doing nothing except mobilizing troops when the time can be spent more fruitfully bombing Taiwan's defenses into oblivion (while also mobilizing troop)? The day troop movements become visible to satellites should be the day the bombing starts.
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Will to power is not a substitute for combat experience. Steadiness is going to evaporate after the first several loitering munitions hit your company, and you don't have any C2 above the battalion level.
The revolutionary French armies worked because they were levies backing up the prerevolutionary French army (a lot of the officer corps stayed well into the Napoleonic era).
Does PLA actually need to move troops before the start of the war? Part of the Stride exercise is practising rapidly deploying a brigade-sized force across the country within something like 24 hours. This demonstrates that PLA could rapidly mobilise within a few days' time. What is more observable might be the gathering of transport ships and other naval assets.
Part of the reason Russia took a long time to build up troops was that they want to intimidate Ukraine to back down but it failed so they had to resort to actually committing their troops. A Taiwan scenario would have many factors that are different to the current Ukraine war. At a minimum there needs more analysis and justification to say that there will necessarily be a long period of troop build-up.
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I don’t think they need to hurry up “before the west can attack”. In 5 years it would be very difficult for US military to defeat China in a Taiwan scenario, unless we decide to begin a total warfare or even a nuclear one(while that also doesn’t guarantee victory).
Anybody thinking about intervention should think about defeat firstly.
I bet the chance of winning is roughly 50-50, and it would be more and more difficult over time. Their amphibious fleet is still vulnerable but air superiority over Taiwan is becoming a mission impossible for USN/USAF.
It’s not comfortable but we all need to get used to that. For me the best strategy of Taiwan perhaps to be a modern Iwo Jima.
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China will slowly normalise an increased military presence close to Taiwan so it's permanently mobilised and can strike as soon as necessary. China has already normalised a huge number of missiles pointing at Taiwan. It has also normalised regular aerial raids into the Taiwan ADIZ. In addition China has normalised the presence of many ships around the diaoyu islands, which are fairly close to Taiwan. All of these will come together to attack if Taiwan goes for independence.
The next step could be to slowly build up a small artillery force in Xiamen next to Kinmen. As long as it's seen as a local threat, maybe about fishing rights or sand, it won't escalate but could provide a justification for increased troop presence. A few years later they'll be part of a surprise invasion force
The next step could be to slowly build up a small artillery force in Xiamen next to Kinmen. As long as it's seen as a local threat, maybe about fishing rights or sand, it won't escalate but could provide a justification for increased troop presence. A few years later they'll be part of a surprise invasion force
I believe the step afterwards will be low level incidents to chip away at their will while building up more capability, yet no individual action is seen as a big deal. Basically a series of provocations set up such that Taiwan backing down is a humiliation, and Taiwan trying to stop them means full scale war.
Something like extra strict enforcement of maritime law on Taiwanese ships, freedom of navigation patrols just over the midpoint line, consistent CAP inside their ADIZ, amphibious exercises near their SCS islands, etc. Trying to stop any of these requires shooting first. Not stopping them is backing down.
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