Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Contrary to the wish thinking fantasy road trip scenario outlined several times in this thread, China might be able to launch a bolt out of the blue missile attack on Taiwan, it may even launch a fairly severe surprise air raids over Taiwan for a few days. That’s it.

Whatever invasion force that can be thrown over the syrait without any warning in a world with cm resolution satellite images is one the scale of several battalions, 10-12 on the outside, at most.

If these do not cause Taiwan to capitulate, then I think there can be no scenario where china can wrap up the war before full intervention by everyone who will intervene.

There is no way to accumulate land forces large enough to have a chance in hell of defeating the land forces in Taiwan, plus the supplies needed to enable it to function more than a few days, at embarkation points, plus concentrate the shipping and supporting naval units to enable it to land amphbiously against opposition, plus gather the supporting echelons for large scale intensive air operation to air bases within range, plus make civil defense preparations to receive casualties, receive counter fire on coastal or even inland civilian targets, all within a few days or even a few weeks. If it was accomplished within a couple of month, it would already be an epic feat of exemplary staff work and logistic miracles unparalleled in military history.

No surprise can be expected if these preparation lasts more than a week or two.

It has been said amateurs talk tactics and strategy, and professionals talk logistics. That the logistic challenges and timelines of mounting the largest amphibious invasion since D-day could be so trivially dismissed speaks to the seriousness of the people opinionating.

Richard Santos said:

Contrary to the wish thinking fantasy road trip scenario outlined several times in this thread, China might be able to launch a bolt out of the blue missile attack on Taiwan, it may even launch a fairly severe surprise air raid on Taiwan. That’s it.

Whatever invasion force that can be thrown over the syrait without any warning in a world with cm resolution satellite images is probably several battalions at most.

If these do not cause Taiwan to capitulate, then I think there can be no scenario where china can wrap up the war before full intervention by everyone who will intervene.

There is no way to accumulate land forces large enough to have a chance in hell of defeating the land forces in Taiwan, plus the supplies needed to enable it to function more than a few days, at embarkation points, concentrate the shipping and supporting naval units to enable it to land amphbiously against opposition, and gather the supporting echelons for large scale intensive air operation to air bases within range, within a few days or even a few weeks. If it was accomplished within a couple of month, it would already be an epic feat of exemplary staff work and logistic miracles unparalleled in military history.

No surprise can be expected if the preparation lasts more than a week or two.

It has been said amateurs talk tactics and strategy, and professionals talk logistics. That the logistic challenges and timelines of mounting the largest amphibious invasion since D-day could be so trivially dismissed speaks to the seriousness of the people opinionating.

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what's the swath size of cm resolution satellites? what about their revisit time? can they see through roofs? thought so.

One lesson from Russia’s war in Ukraine is that ‘brotherly war’ never works. You either use full force and bomb the living hell out of the place or don’t start the war. Russia went far too easy on Ukraine in the early stages which gave hope to Ukraine and its supporters.

If China decide to go to war, Taiwan need to be razed to the ground. That includes wiping out the military and civilian leaders in the first 48 hours. Being ‘nice guy’ in war will only invite more resistance thinking they can win.

MixedReality said:

One lesson from Russia’s war in Ukraine is that ‘brotherly war’ never works. You either use full force and bomb the living hell out of the place or don’t start the war. Russia went far too easy on Ukraine in the early stages which gave hope to Ukraine and its supporters.

If China decide to go to war, Taiwan need to be razed to the ground. That includes wiping out the military and civilian leaders in the first 48 hours. Being ‘nice guy’ in war will only invite more resistance thinking they can win.

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China has never had the problem of brotherly war. The brutality of the many Chinese civil wars prove this. This was even a lament, recorded in the famous line in Three Kingdoms, 本是同根生，相煎何太急?

MixedReality said:

One lesson from Russia’s war in Ukraine is that ‘brotherly war’ never works. You either use full force and bomb the living hell out of the place or don’t start the war. Russia went far too easy on Ukraine in the early stages which gave hope to Ukraine and its supporters.

If China decide to go to war, Taiwan need to be razed to the ground. That includes wiping out the military and civilian leaders in the first 48 hours. Being ‘nice guy’ in war will only invite more resistance thinking they can win.

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Sigh...

You realize that China has been preparing for armed reunification for 70 years now?

The main strategy from the 90s onward has been a decapitation strike followed by a quick invasion in order to pre-empt a US intervention.

Only recently has there been talks of taking on the US in a direct conflict (which btw will never happen because of nukes).

The Russians' performance in Ukraine hasn't changed anything with regards to the above.

MixedReality said:

One lesson from Russia’s war in Ukraine is that ‘brotherly war’ never works. You either use full force and bomb the living hell out of the place or don’t start the war. Russia went far too easy on Ukraine in the early stages which gave hope to Ukraine and its supporters……..

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Actually, It works sometimes. Hitler’s Anschluss of Austria, occupation of Sudetenland are clear examples.

What makes it tricky to determine whether it will work or not it is far too easy and tempting to delude yourself into believing it will work when it won’t, because the rationale you provide to yourself for doing it in the first place is often the self delusion that you are doing the morally right thing because the people it most directly affects really want it and is on your side, when in fact they want no such thing, and see you are intolerable bully who must be resisted at all cost.

So accurately determining whether it would work, or not, required a very deep commitment to intellectual honesty and possession of the gift of true psychological insight, as well as a determination to reject confirmation bias, ignore your own propaganda, and unearth all possible evidence and let only evidence lead you to conclusions.

In Ukraine Putin clearly committed the cardinal sin, for a statesman, of succumbing to confirmation bias and believing his own bullshit.

delete

HulkHogan said:

If China was to go for Taiwan i believe it would be a 'bolt from the blue' no prior warning just a massive cruise missile strike followed by whatever forces the PLA and PLAN can throw in before the west can attack. seeing as China is not the west and you can actually keep things secret it should not be impossible.

The Ukraine comparison is interesting, the AFU had advanced knowledge of a invasion for nearly a year and was still taken by surprise. what does that say for Taiwan?

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Troop movements can’t be concealed. Only way to do this is to hold massive drills every year.

siegecrossbow said:

Troop movements can’t be concealed. Only way to do this is to hold massive drills every year.

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siegecrossbow said:

Troop movements can’t be concealed. Only way to do this is to hold massive drills every year.

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With a bolt from the blue you dont need the troops moving in massive amounts, i am sure the forces facing Taiwan are more than capable of forming a initial wave until follow on forces arrive.

Richard Santos said:

Contrary to the wish thinking fantasy road trip scenario outlined several times in this thread, China might be able to launch a bolt out of the blue missile attack on Taiwan, it may even launch a fairly severe surprise air raids over Taiwan for a few days. That’s it.

Whatever invasion force that can be thrown over the syrait without any warning in a world with cm resolution satellite images is one the scale of several battalions, 10-12 on the outside, at most.

If these do not cause Taiwan to capitulate, then I think there can be no scenario where china can wrap up the war before full intervention by everyone who will intervene.

There is no way to accumulate land forces large enough to have a chance in hell of defeating the land forces in Taiwan, plus the supplies needed to enable it to function more than a few days, at embarkation points, plus concentrate the shipping and supporting naval units to enable it to land amphbiously against opposition, plus gather the supporting echelons for large scale intensive air operation to air bases within range, plus make civil defense preparations to receive casualties, receive counter fire on coastal or even inland civilian targets, all within a few days or even a few weeks. If it was accomplished within a couple of month, it would already be an epic feat of exemplary staff work and logistic miracles unparalleled in military history.

No surprise can be expected if these preparation lasts more than a week or two.

It has been said amateurs talk tactics and strategy, and professionals talk logistics. That the logistic challenges and timelines of mounting the largest amphibious invasion since D-day could be so trivially dismissed speaks to the seriousness of the people opinionating.

Click to expand...

I think you underestimate the damage a initial strike would cause. when i examined the damage a initial PLAF strike conducted by a all out attack including SSM sites. strategic bombers and naval bombardment i found the initial volley that would target command centers, power stations and known depots would be utterly devastating. in minutes Taiwans entire infrastructure could be turned off like you would a switch.

Now you have a good point on holding the beachheads. it would be a slaughter with a mix and match of combat troops from different units and organizations trying to coordinate after disembarking from more or less a fishing boat. yes that part would be a dismal meat grinder. but all they would need to do is hold the beachheads long enough for a more organized combat force, most likely the PLA marine corps. to make landfall and push towards Taipai.

"There is no way to accumulate land forces large enough to have a chance in hell of defeating the land forces in Taiwan, plus the supplies needed to enable it to function more than a few days"

This works both ways, it will take more than a few days for Taiwan to assemble its military force and get its reserves mobilized and then longer still to equip them with enough gear for more than a day at the front. trying to do this in peacetime is hard enough, trying to equip civilian reservists with M1 carbines or M16A1s while the PLA is running a round the clock missile campaign against you seems a nightmare.

As for the idea of preparing, this would be accomplished long before the first shot is fired maybe a decade in advance. and then as the name implies the initial strike would just happen, no lead up, no troop movements, the men would wake up, load their gear up and march from their barracks to the front as if it was the north german plain of the cold war.

"It has been said amateurs talk tactics and strategy, and professionals talk logistics. That the logistic challenges and timelines of mounting the largest amphibious invasion since D-day could be so trivially dismissed speaks to the seriousness of the people opinionating."

Lets not throw insults around. plus the amount of fright ships avalible to the PLA even discarding civilian fishing ships right now, far, far outdoes the D-day landings.