You can't conceal but you can gaslight. Just say there's no invasion.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
- Start date
- Status
You can definitely conceal troop movements, and even make decoy formations appear on the map, using a whole host of tactics.
Troop and Commander movements can be 'faked' with good counter intelligence. Satellites and recon assets can be fooled by decoy forces, even inflatables and fake infrastructure. Electronic signals can be spoofed/faked. While real units can also be moved under cloud cover or by terrain and be hidden at their launch points with good execution.
All of the above is critical when facing a peer adversary. The Allies did it in WWII for Normandy. The Wehrmacht did it for the Invasion of France. Granted, the incompetence/mistakes of the defending side played a factor in both offensives.
With something like a full scale invasion though? You can feint the landing spots but not the actual operation.
How much can be concealed? Nobody said 100% but is it 0% either?
What's the counter to stockpiling ammo and parking tanks indoors, while keeping other vehicles and troops at bases within 800 km, which is a vastly larger search area? Then when the time comes, the wheeled vehicles drive themselves from various bases to their staging areas for their appropriate roles (artillery, air defense, long range strike, IFV) at highway speed within 12 hours at night?
Is it possible to move troops after the beginning of aerial attack?
Sure you can, it's happened before many times. China has already executed surprise operations, in Korea and most recently in Ladakh. Even in '62 India did not expect it. Other examples include the Israelis in the 6 Day War, which is a classic example. Also, Stalin had no idea Germany was gonna launch until he did (even though his generals warned him) etc. etc.
It's just a matter of execution and imagination (and a little bit of luck and incompetence of the defending side.) But in theory, you can totally mask your plans to invade with enough diplomatic and operational cover and we have successful examples of it working. It's a masterful move when it works.
Last edited:
Organizing that many people from different branches of the military is not a field trip. I think Taiwanese expectation of half a year is way too long, but you still need at least two weeks to a month to get everything ready.
Given the Taiwan conflict will likely start as an air war first, there is no need to mass mobilise troops until the war starts.
The scale of operation in Ladakh pales in comparison with that of a Taiwan operation. The terrain is also a lot more complicated near Ladakh, and India has way fewer reconnaissance assets than the U.S.
- Status