Ladakh Flash Point
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solarz
Brigadier
You have an interesting definition of "failing". It's been nigh 60 years since the last war with India, and not only has China strengthened its position, it has widened the power gap between the two nations.
India is not going to stop provoking China as long as the US is intent on being an antagonist. The only thing that's going to end the border tensions is for China to shatter the US influence in the region.
vesicles
Colonel
I think we need more context to fully appreciate his meaning.
About the casualties of the PLA. If we accept the Indian version of the event (immediate kill of 3 and then 17 more while running away), then we can sort of guess how much the PLA lost. Firstly, all of the Indians ran away. This means the first blow by the PLA must be devastating, so traumatic that the Indians had to all abandon their post and run away. so desperate that they would jump off cliffs. Such desperation can only come from absolute terror. If the PLA also lost 3 men, I don't think the Indians would feel the need to run away. Most of them would have stayed on for a hope to win. Then how about 3:2 or 3:1? In the eyes of the Indians, any loss by the PLA would have seemed that they have gained an upper hand and would be encouraged to stay in the fight. So most likely, the PLA did not lose anyone during the initial phase.
Then the chasing phase. I don't see how the PLA would get casualties while chasing after the Indians when the Indians were so desperately running away. With their backs facing the PLA and running away from a fight, how could they ever hurt the PLA?
To be honest, I am still puzzled by the silence of the PLA and the Chinese government. By staying quiet, they would encourage all kinds of rumors in China. With such advanced social media in China, rumors might become wilder and wilder very quickly. Instead of worrying about how the Indians feel, they should worry about how the Chinese feel. At this point with the COVID-19 and the economic issues, they should let their people know how capable the PLA is. It would be a huge morale booster.
My guess is that Modi might have negotiated something with the Chinese. In exchange for some juicy concessions, the Chinese would stay quiet so as to save some face for the Indians. As long as the Chinese don't say anything about their lopsided victory, Modi can wiggle his way out. I don't know what Modi has given up, but it must be very juicy... Maybe Modi has agreed to come back the RCEP...
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India is trying to tie China down in the west while China also have to deal with SCS in the East. But remember, China can tie India down in the Indian Ocean and in the western border as well. The two giants will go at it. In the meantime who do you think will benefit the most: USA of course.
Why would what China says about its casualties matter to India? At this point they're so enmeshed in their web of delusion that no number China gives will make any difference to them, so I don't think Modi would give anything tangible in exchange for China's silence. Unless...
There's footage. If what you're saying is correct, there's got to be footage. Other clashes were filmed, so it stands to reason that this one was as well for at least as long as there was light (my understanding is it began late in the afternoon). If the initial rout and flight of the Indian soldiers was filmed, no amount of fake news can overshadow that. That would be crush India's morale and put enormous political pressure on Modi.
I need to see that footage.
vesicles
Colonel
As I said, I am puzzled too. That was a wild guess on my part. Maybe China wants Modi to stay in office for something... Who knows... I want to see that footage too.
My understanding is that during the standoff, negotiations got heated and a brief scuffle broke out. Difficult to say which side struck first but the Indian officer Santosh Babu was killed instantly when he was struck on the head, which might have caused the panic on the Indian side. In other words the actual confrontation itself was extremely brief but deadly.
I think it's clear that China chose not to disclose its casualties for negotiation purposes, with the ultimate goal of deescalating. For the sake if argument, if it turns out that 1-2 PLA soldiers were killed, would this cause mass uproar in China like in India?
The fact that there are no released footage from the Indian side, no PLA soldiers captured, and no hard evidence of PLA deaths really suggests that casualties on the PLA side were either minimal or non existent.
You mean other than avoiding a diplomatic crisis?
Retreat? India retreated almost 500m.back while China until today stayed on the same spot.
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