Ladakh Flash Point

I am from Germany and work in England. I honour everyone's opinion but consider my opinion so so . I didnt find the Indian or pakistani forums quality either. This forum can also improve. I won't get into politics of any country.

For all the noise between Indians and chinese, none can win against each other. My comment is well intended and i can become an equal opportunity victim. I know how deadly Indian trolling is although in real always found them very sensible but argumentative.

The chinese opinion currently is also completely opposite to every international opinion out there. They have frictions currently with every Tom, Dick and Harry if these can be countries. Fine with me. I am just here to give a sober opinion and hopefully getting treated soberly.

Asiananalyst said:

I am just here to give a sober opinion and hopefully getting treated soberly.

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No, you're just here to give your opinion. You don't get to put adjectives on your opinion, we do that. One adjective that comes to my mind is "passive-aggressive."

And you know what they say about opinions, I'm sure.

Asiananalyst said:

I am from Germany and work in England. I honour everyone's opinion but consider my opinion so so . I didnt find the Indian or pakistani forums quality either. This forum can also improve. I won't get into politics of any country.

For all the noise between Indians and chinese, none can win against each other. My comment is well intended and i can become an equal opportunity victim. I know how deadly Indian trolling is although in real always found them very sensible but argumentative.

The chinese opinion currently is also completely opposite to every international opinion out there. They have frictions currently with every Tom, Dick and Harry if these can be countries. Fine with me. I am just here to give a sober opinion and hopefully getting treated soberly.

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Welcome to the Forum.

If you are an analyst, you should know that countries fight because they want to protect/extend their influence and interests. War becomes the extension of politics when politics alone fail to resolve the situation. Countries neighboring each other have been fighting as long as there were countries. Since both the Indian side and the Chinese side acknowledge that the Indians have intruded on to the Chinese side of actual control, it seems the Indians have initiated this. Now it is true that the Chinese are having spats with a number of countries at the same time. That is because they are a rising power and rising powers exerts more influence to other countries. Influence is a zero sum game so it stands to reason that others that are losing the influence will want to have conflict to regain their influence. So it does not stand that they initiate the fight with the Indians just because they are having conflicts with multiple countries at the same time.

Most of us here are just amused that India, the much weaker side of the fight here, have initiated a conflict that it can't possibly win and has been dragged down a quagmire of its own making. Go read some John Mearshiemer and come back after that. We will have a much more intelligent discussion.

Asiananalyst said:

I am from Germany and work in England. I honour everyone's opinion but consider my opinion so so . I didnt find the Indian or pakistani forums quality either. This forum can also improve. I won't get into politics of any country.

For all the noise between Indians and chinese, none can win against each other. My comment is well intended and i can become an equal opportunity victim. I know how deadly Indian trolling is although in real always found them very sensible but argumentative.

The chinese opinion currently is also completely opposite to every international opinion out there. They have frictions currently with every Tom, Dick and Harry if these can be countries. Fine with me. I am just here to give a sober opinion and hopefully getting treated soberly.

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Except you don't provide a "sober" opinion. At no point did China start any of this nor wanted to start any of this. You try to make it sound like both sides were wrong which is something only those who ignored everything from the Chinese side would say. Let's not forget, the beef China has with everyone currently is because it's a rising power. Something the West and India cannot accept.

Asiananalyst said:

Hi, I am a European analyst registered at different defence forums. My father was from communist party so my interest has been in China/Russia and Asia.

I have been let down by quality of discussions on all forums as I believe all of them are echo chambers promoting a false superiority amidst taking potshots at enemy.

India and china are countries of many empires and historically have won and lost several wars. Same is there for China. The Indians assimilated several cultures(Mughals/Kushan) couldn't assimilate British entirely although do use English and so did Chinese. (Cantonese, Manchurian and a number of sinicized groups)

Does this make any of these countries special in terms of war? No. China Burma wars in 1760's remind how a very small country and army can defeat a much bigger army. In India's case, it got defeated by smaller disciplined British armies in1800's.

Now coming to case of China India. why are you guys fighting. None of you can defeat each other. If you could, you would have done it. 1962 for example where a much bigger chinese army took an army quarter of its size. But is situation same. No. Coming to the case of who started it in 2020, I think international opinion does not match chinese opinion. But china did several things to achieve certain strategic things. But question is did they achieve any? In case of India, Indians must question the benefits in a china india war? any?

China was not happy with India on number of things specially India's strategic presence increase but remember throughout 1980-2010, many wise chinese foresaw that doing business with India was good. Currently India was taking advantage of china USA trade war and many chinese strategists did not take it easy. But why? I never understood why you want India to be only on chinese side completely when you support pakistanis more, trade is imbalanced in your favour and you don't want india to grow strategically. The trade imbalance is the reason why Indians can decouple but china has nothing to decouple from.

India should also not get in western trap. It has never been easy for Iraqis or pakistanis so why will it be easy on you.

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Welcome to the forum...

I also have some questions I would like to ask

1, is it ok for a foreign country to unilaterally declare your territory as theirs and include it into their newly formed union state, where they don’t even have a presence in the territory?

2, is it ok for a foreign country to start military infrastructure building near the said territory in 1, after they have effectively claimed your territory

3, if the international opinion only shows one side and the other side regardless of how legitimate their claim are, is ignored, then is international opinion even worth anything when one side is considered wrong no matter what they do?

4, if international opinion is against your country then would your country simply fold and cede your territory to the other side?

Now to answer some of your questions

No, it’s not the same situation as 1962, the trigger is still the same where the Indians decided to try their forward policy again... but the relative difference between China and India today is vastly different... in 1962 China was weaker then India, economically and militarily... but today is vastly stronger economically and militarily.

Have China achieved their strategic aims? Maybe, since we can only have an educated guess as to the aims in the first place... but what we can see is, infrastructure have been built and is continuing to be built on the Chinese side, India can barely keep up, large number of troops have been stationed and are training in Tibet and along the LAC, India has also stationed troops and is having to keep a larger then normal numbers having to specifically pull troops from other areas and China has forced India to spend resources on their military instead of other much needed areas like education, while China is well within comfortable spending levels. It’s up the observer to determine for themselves

China didn’t want India to be only on their side.. but simply be neutral and trade with each other, China invited India to BRI (I don’t see how inviting India to BRI is trying to keep India strategically weak, BRI would be throwing money at the Indians), to SCO and many other multinational organisations and initiatives and more often or not it was the Indians who decided they didn’t want to engage. As you said they took advantage of the US China trade war and implemented policies designed to hurt China... so how was China the one acting aggressively? and further should China simply take it and not response? When India arguably need China far more then China needs India...

I would suggest that perhaps you don’t simply take western media’s word only and look at the situation of both sides...

Asiananalyst said:

The chinese opinion currently is also completely opposite to every international opinion out there. They have frictions currently with every Tom, Dick and Harry if these can be countries. Fine with me. I am just here to give a sober opinion and hopefully getting treated soberly

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Hi, welcome.

Now, regarding your opinon, and you're entitled to them. But I suspect it comes mainly from your upbringing and education. Also from the media's you read. And judging by the statement above, I guess you don't read from a wide variety of source.

Claiming 'international' opinon already shows your bias, and readings. As we have often hear news readers in the west always proclaimed 'International' opinons, when in fact, it is the western opinons crafted by their main media.

And also your assertion of China's friction with every Tom, Dick and Harry really give your game away.

I suggest you do a lot more reading from a wide ranging source before coming here and showed us your ignorance.

Looks like Rihanna will get massive amounts of death threats pretty soon. I hope she lawyers you, not that it would do much. A better option might be quit internet.

siegecrossbow said:

Looks like Rihanna will get massive amounts of death threats pretty soon. I hope she lawyers you, not that it would do much. A better option might be quit internet.

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I can just see it now,

" Rihanna, you better stop now, or Shiva will curse you. If you don't stop after that, I will beat your picture with my plastic flip flops. Jai Hind"

They can only get some licks in if their opponents are defense less and outnumbered 10 to one.


Otherwise

reservior dogs said:

I don't disagree that India is very friendly with the West and antagonistic towards China, but that does not mean they could go even further. To date, India consider itself a non-aligned country with its own foreign policy. This is very different from, for example, Japan. The prime minister of Japan serves at the pleasure of the U.S. There is a Japanese corruption watch dog team which was run by the CIA. It had brought down prime ministers in the past that was too friendly to the Chinese. There are numerous U.S. bases all over Japan. There are currently no U.S. military bases in India. Another telling sign is that the Indians, however desperate for a good airplane, opted to buy a French forth gen plane instead of the F-35. While the F-35 is a much more superior plane, buying it will have a lot of strings attached. India still would rather have an inferior and more expensive plane instead of the strings that come with a better plane. All of that could change if India feels like it lost its fight against China.



The issue is how much support can the Biden administration give to the Indian government for fighting this war. The U.S. can barely take care of itself. It would be one thing to posture as India is already doing, but to pick a real fight with China is suicidal. I still believe the Indian politicians are not that stupid.

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I think you are not really taking into account the perverted mentality of Jai Hinds and continue to think of them as objective and rational actors, when their consistent recent actions have shown them to be anything but.

After decades of failing, I think that even if they won’t admit it to even themselves, most Indians secretly and privately accept they just cannot match China as things stand. That is the key undercurrent driving Indian hostility towards China - they think that since they cannot hope to match, never mind make up lost ground through peaceful development, then they only shot they have left to achieve their ‘rightful’ place in Asia and the world is to beat China vis other means.

That is where things can get dangerous real fast. They are already activity trying to sabotage benign Chinese actions like vaccine development and roll out, and toying with ‘playing the Tibetan card’.

In that sense Biden doesn’t have to offer them much or even anything at all. As Ladakh has shown, the Indians are absolutely desperate for any opportunity to try to attack China given any chance.

China has just not bothered to respond properly to Indian hostility because of a combination of factors, with the main ones being Chinese focus is still overwhelmingly to the East, and pathetic Indian capabilities and far worse competence meant that even though India is trying it’s little heart out, it’s just not actually causing China any harm to warrant much of a response.

But that state of affairs could change, and change fast and drastically if India is foolish enough to dip its toes into state sponsored terrorism against China.

China is only just finishing cleaning up the mess from past (Soviet) such meddling on the Uighur issue, so it knows full well the risk and costs of allowing such activities to go unchecked and most certainly will not stand for any more such foreign meddling. While China is overwhelmingly focused on the East, and Taiwan especially, its strategists has always been able to see things clearly and objectively. So long as India does not fundamentally change its unwarranted hatred and hostility towards China for merely existing and doing well, China will never allow them to become a threat. It’s as simple as that and is the only rational and responsible policy Chinese leaders can take.

So far the Indians are whipping themselves into a frothing frenzy over Chinese responses to their own stupid strategic overreach. It will not take much for China to make internal Indian demands for all irresponsible if it actually wanted to goad India into a war it cannot hope to win. You can thank Bollywood and India’s fake news ‘free press’ for that. So basically China can have a major war with India pretty much any time it wants, and when it does so, it can even get the Indians to declare war for them. China does not want to play that move, but it will as soon as India looks like it might start to actual get its act together unless they adjust their own attitude towards China.