Oh well. India defeated and retreating. Why is nobody surprise.
Wise move though before it becomes a rout.
China should be vigilant of course. But if India is thinking a Nargorno-Karabakh style revenge could be applied to the Chinese border dispute, then it is severely mistaken. China is not Armenia.Even if the Indians leave, China should maintain vigilance. Look to the recent outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; the Azeris nursed their defeat for the past 30 odd years and in the meantime used their oil wealth to buy weapons and drones and currying favour with russians and NATO so that when they chose to retake NK, they did so with stunning success.
Indians this year believed they would similarly be able to wipe the stain of defeat of '62, but were proven wrong, time and time again.
This year, with the pandemic, China should ensure that this lesson is taught permanently.
Yes, I don't believe the Chinese will withdraw. The best the Indian side can hope for is unilateral withdraw with some cover(silence) from the Chinese side. Even for that, they must give a lot of concessions. All the problems are on the Indian side.I think the assumption that China will withdraw from Finger 4 is ridiculous. THey spent months building all the infrastructure and fortifications and will they take time blowing them up/dismantling them or are they just gonna leave it for the Indian Army?
China should be vigilant of course. But if India is thinking a Nargorno-Karabakh style revenge could be applied to the Chinese border dispute, then it is severely mistaken. China is not Armenia.
After Armenia captured N-K in 1994, Armenia stagnated while Azerbaijan grew thanks to oil exports. That oil wealth gave Azerbaijan the budget to grow its military until it overwhelmingly exceeded Armenia's military. In 2020 July, they tested their newly bought Turkish and Israeli drone toys. It was a massive success. Fully confident of victory, they then went to war in September. Then the rest is history.
If you want to use the N-K scenario as an analogy. Then India is Armenia, and China is Azerbaijan. China has the overwhelming military force to choose when to go to war with India and decisively defeat them. However, India was the one that provoked China during this Ladakh crisis, and got their asses handed to them. Realizing that the China cannot be bullied militarily, India chickened out. And war is averted.
Interestingly, I've watched one Indian media commentator talking about N-K war. He was impressed with the Azeri victory and how their drones "revolutionized warfare". He was also proud to point out that the Indian Airforce already have, and would buy more of the same IAI Harop used by the Azeris in the war. Well, yes and no. Drone warfare can work against poorly trained and equipped militaries like Armenia, and against militant groups. Drones do not work nearly as well against a proper military force like China and Russia. The Russian military base at Syria came under hundreds of drone attacks and flybys in a year, and was barely scratched. That's because they had a proper air defence systems and the crew to operate them. China definitely has the same capabilities and more. Can't say the same for India.