None of what I said is predicated on peaceful reunion, at least not initiated by Taiwan. I agree that Taiwan will seize the opportunity to declare independence if one presented itself, but even if China failed to contain Covid and the rest of the world is not impacted, there would be no opportunity for them to do that. China has already grown too big and too strong.
The main goal for China is to quickly climb up economically, scientifically and militarily. It should minimize any distraction while on this path. Taiwan is there for the taking any time they wish.
Actually, using this opportunity to tie up with other economies is the most important thing. RCEP is on the verge of being signed by the 15 countries in the Pacific. The U. S. is conspicuous in its absence. That would not be possible if the U.S. were fully functional and in control. Japan and South Korea, without whom the agreement is meaningless, would not be permitted to pursue something like this if the U.S. were in full control. I imagine some other type of understanding will be created with the Europeans. These are far more significant to China then taking Taiwan today. Would China jeopardize the ratification of RCEP by Japan, whose geopolitical position will be weaken by the Chinese taking of Taiwan? That would be very foolish of them. The Chinese are not fools. There are a lot of other economic and technological agreements they can create with Europe, where European companies will build factories in China since they have controlled Covid and is growing. These are way more important compared to taking Taiwan today. Imagine ASML setting up factories in China. The possibilities are endless.
