Ladakh Flash Point

Bright Sword said:

There is some truth in this but the last thing India would want is to fight a two front war.
Which is why India is working hard to go to a one front solution with China ( preferably a stalemated front
favorable to India.
India would like to take Pakistan out of the equation with three general strategies:
1.,Get Pakistan into an Iran, North Korea or earlier Iraq style diplomatic and economic isolation with UN sanctioned arms embargoes and cause a complete degradation of Pakistan's defense capabilities. Then either by coercion or a brief military strike force Pakistan into concessions or even occupation ( Iraq),
2. Build up extreme pressure on Pakistan's borders with slow escalation of skirmishes, artillery exchanges, leading to heavy civilian losses beyond a level that Pakistan can sustain, especially if internal unrest against civilian deaths can be whipped up. This was tried in 2002 but then Pakistan had a martial law administration and political parties were in hibernation but the strategy nearly worked because Pakistan was willing for an accommodation.( Agra and Lahore summits) Unfortunately the Indian religious bigotry and ideologues triumphed and India backed out of an agreement hoping that Pakistan would weaken further over the long run and India could then get a better bargain.
3. The Israeli Egyptian diplomatic model as we have discussed in earlier posts.

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What you said make sense from strategic point of view.

The question is, do you think any indian would have understood the points you have mentioned here?
If they did, do they have enough resources at their disposal to pull off what you stated at point number 1?.

Dumb luck or not, pakistan sits on strategic position. On parts of it opens the gateway that straight leads to West Asia & all the way to gateway of Europe. One side is on arabian sea. India tries those stunts with US , russia will be there tomorrow being their best buddy giving all their fancy toys.

India isolating other countries through economic isolation/ UN sanctioned arms embargo is so laughable. Even if you are talking about isolating Pakistan, lol

Bright Sword said:

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Extremely valid points from plawolf and ougah and Mohsin77 agreed India has an advantage over Pakistan in the civilian death toll exchange.

To refer to the discussion related to my earlier posts, the current mindset in the Indian media, establishment. general population opinion and one section of the military has moved away from prudence and logic. Not entirely as in the case of Germany when it attacked the Soviet Union or like Japan when it attacked the USA as in Pearl Harbor, but that state of mind is not far off. In the twisted logic Pakistan would be India's "Poland" and a swift victory over Pakistan ( a full occupation) will signal to China and the world that India is not to be messed with. China would then face India alone and would likely settle its border with territorial concessions just as Czechoslovakia did with Germany in World War 2. It is now being widely discussed on Indian media that Pakistan is too economically and militarily weak to be any kind of a challenge and its nuclear and missile assets are no threat because these are a hoax. In any case Pakistan would like to survive as an occupied state rather than suffer destruction.
These are dangerous delusions being propagated 24 X 7 on Indian channels with retired army officers commenting.
Just like the Nazi's had a cult projection of superiority and living space the Indian mindset is being conditioned in a revisionist stance reliving the glory of the Vedic era over an Aryan land stretching from Iran to Burma and from Xinjiang to Sri Lanka.

There are self fulfilling prophecies and India like Germany and Japan in World War 2 might get the glorious Dharm Yudh ( War of Righteousness) it desires ... and like Germany and Japan get much more than it bargained for.
There are competent, patriotic, sensible Indian defense analysts, journalists, diplomats, and political figures who would like to save the region from the possible bloodbath.
Their voices however are feeble and getting feebler by the day. In the present scenario such persons are at grave risk of state persecution by imprisonment or worse being lynched by state sponsored street thugs.
A gloomy scenario is distasteful as it appears from the Indian mindset it is Pakistan rather than China that is at immediate risk of being attacked and severely hurt in a devastating war.

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Hard to fathom and terrifying to believe may be any sort of mainstream view. But think about it, living conditions in India are worse than Germany after WWI. The population suffers from malnutrition and disease. Economy is in a malaise. Literacy rates are comparatively low. This is exactly the demographic profile that engenders and is susceptible to extremist ideology. The only thing keeping India from the brink is a small crop of well educated people who actually knows what's going on. But we had those in Germany and Japan in the 1930s too. Once they were eliminated, all hell broke loose.

Nobonita Barua said:

What you said make sense from strategic point of view.

The question is, do you think any indian would have understood the points you have mentioned here?
If they did, do they have enough resources at their disposal to pull off what you stated at point number 1?.

Dumb luck or not, pakistan sits on strategic position. On parts of it opens the gateway that straight leads to West Asia & all the way to gateway of Europe. One side is on arabian sea. India tries those stunts with US , russia will be there tomorrow being their best buddy giving all their fancy toys.

India isolating other countries through economic isolation/ UN sanctioned arms embargo is so laughable. Even if you are talking about isolating Pakistan, lol

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India is still in the "War on Terror" and "Weapons of Mass Destruction " mode and India hopes to have a cooperative EU and USA on its side ( assuming the next US administration is equally cooperative). Any UN actions would need a Security Council resolution and China would most likely block the move. However as we saw in Iraq ( 2003) and Serbia ( 1999) the UN has limited ability to restrain unilateral action. Iran today is a good example. Another twist:
As a precedent Pakistan has faced a massive unilateral attack ( Apache's backed by F-18s ) US strike at Salala on the Afghan border in 2013 ( ?) .
76 Pakistani soldiers including several officers were killed. Ironically India didn't like this at all, and the Indian media was buzzing with details ( regimental cap wearing retired generals included) how Pakistan was likely to militarily retaliate. It is not known if this was deliberate to get Pakistan into a shooting war with the US or whether the indignation was genuine, The left wing lobby and media in India was howling about how Pakistanis are "our people "and Pakistan is "our land". In any case Pakistan chose the wiser option by closing down the logistic support facilities in Karachi and the supply chain till the US apologized and offered compensation. No other nation other than China stood by Pakistan ( India's left wing lobby indignation not withstanding) . China issued a stark warning to the US and a strong support to Pakistan.
This incident is relevant because either through manipulation or by intent there was is no hesitation on the part of the USA or West to strike Pakistan, in a way India for the moment never will. In this new scenario with a completely different mindset and the left wing lobby enfeebled or silenced in India there is a strong possibility that India would welcome and encourage a strike on Pakistan by a Western power or Israel.
It goes to the credit of Pakistani and Chinese diplomats that Pakistan has not suffered the fate of Iran, Iraq, Syria etc. With FATF Pakistan may still end up in somewhat North Korea like case, though with latest developments this scenario has become less likely.

Mohsin77 said:

Getting back to your points which preceded your question, there are a bunch of assumptions here that I don't agree with at all. The idea that the GCC supports pulling Pakistan away from China is completely unfounded. The GCC itself is getting closer to China, and will continue to do so as the US proceeds to make a mass exit from the 'greater middle east.' Secondly, whatever the Indian analysts think, the Israeli situation offers no helpful guidance to India, because US think-tanks themselves believe that Israel has no future, in the long-term. The same Stratfor analysts that are invited for interviews on Indian news shows have stated this in the past (I was a subscriber to Stratfor.) Opposition to Israel (as an independent political entity within our civilization borders) will never go away. Therefore, the Camp David Accords don't actually protect Israel. They give us the time we need to get our act together. It may take another century or two, but it's basically inevitable. "Israel" is nothing independent of the West, it is a pawn in a civilizational game that has been going on for a thousand years.

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Mohsin 77,
Extremely relevant information!
On the GCC:
Would Dubai see Gwadar as competition to its current status?
It would certainly seem that there would be some business loss.

Also, how does Pakistan figure in the Iran China equation now that India is out ( or at best marginalized) in Iran?
Iran is Pakistan's neighbor so Pakistan does have a vital stake in the stability of Iran and friendship. At the moment this is not looked on very favorably by the GCC ( except Qatar).

Then there is Afghanistan.
Except for Qatar ( currently sidelined by the GCC) the other GCC members have distanced themselves from thr peace process there. Here is where Pakistan is active.,

It seems to me at least that Pakistan has had mostly covert relations with Iran because it receives a lot of funding from other Gulf States including Saudi Arabia. Last time there was a proposal to build a pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan it was sabotaged both by the US and the by the Saudis. The Saudis basically gave Pakistan oil for next to zero. Pakistan was highly receptive to this because back then a lot of its electric power was generated by burning oil. Now with the CPEC and the new coal power plants I doubt the Saudis would have the same amount of leverage. Iran also used to have close ties to India, but since India recently has proven unreliable and pliable to US pressure, and they don't have UN Security Council veto power the Iranians instead chose to align towards China. As for Afghanistan with the Taliban in power, there will be a realignment. So I think an Indian land invasion of Pakistan is increasingly more risky for India.
With China building military facilities in the area of the Chinese-Indian border and more modern high speed rail I doubt any Indian campaign there would have much success either and the terrain is basically inhospitable. They are fighting for rocks.
India is really dumb into playing the hand of the West. They could have simply chosen to cooperate with China and modernize themselves on the cheap, but instead they increase their reliance on the West. India used at one time to be one of the leaders of non-aligned nations movement but now they are pathetic politically.

Bright Sword said:

Would Dubai see Gwadar as competition to its current status?
It would certainly seem that there would be some business loss.

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Let's remember that the UAE is a small player in the grand scheme of things, and it doesn't represent the GCC's interests as a whole. There are internal GCC competitions that are probably more dangerous for Dubai than Gwadar's rise. Here's a decent article that lists some (of the many) variables to this equation:

Also, how does Pakistan figure in the Iran China equation now that India is out ( or at best marginalized) in Iran?
Iran is Pakistan's neighbor so Pakistan does have a vital stake in the stability of Iran and friendship. At the moment this is not looked on very favorably by the GCC ( except Qatar).

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As I hinted earlier, the whole Iran-GCC angle will begin to change as the US exists the region. The GCC cannot protect itself from Iran without the US umbrella. With the US on the decline, the GCC will have no choice but to make peace with Iran, and hopefully, this will bring a paradigm shift in the entire civilization. Pakistan is hoping for this eventuality, a united Muslim World is a strategic imperative for Pakistan. (This is one of the reasons why the Arabs/Iranians/Turks all trust Pakistan, even when they don't trust each other.) And increased Chinese partnerships in both Iran/GCC and even Turkey are only going to compliment Pakistan's own interests.

Then there is Afghanistan.
Except for Qatar ( currently sidelined by the GCC) the other GCC members have distanced themselves from thr peace process there. Here is where Pakistan is active.,

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I think by now everyone realizes that Pakistan is going to block out any other actor from gaining influence over Afghanistan. We can't afford issues on our Western front right now.

Mohsin77 said:

Let's remember that the UAE is a small player in the grand scheme of things, and it doesn't represent the GCC's interests as a whole. There are internal GCC competitions that are probably more dangerous for Dubai than Gwadar's rise. Here's a decent article that lists some (of the many) variables to this equation:

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As I hinted earlier, the whole Iran-GCC angle will begin to change as the US exists the region. The GCC cannot protect itself from Iran without the US umbrella. With the US on the decline, the GCC will have no choice but to make peace with Iran, and hopefully, this will bring a paradigm shift in the entire civilization. Pakistan is hoping for this eventuality, a united Muslim World is a strategic imperative for Pakistan. (This is one of the reasons why the Arabs/Iranians/Turks all trust Pakistan, even when they don't trust each other.) And increased Chinese partnerships in both Iran/GCC and even Turkey are only going to compliment Pakistan's own interests.



I think by now everyone realizes that Pakistan is going to block out any other actor from gaining influence over Afghanistan. We can't afford issues on our Western front right now.

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Gwadar is nothing compared to Chabahar Port, and India is linking it through to Afghanistan to undercut Gwadar.

Mohsin77 said:

Let's remember that the UAE is a small player in the grand scheme of things, and it doesn't represent the GCC's interests as a whole. There are internal GCC competitions that are probably more dangerous for Dubai than Gwadar's rise. Here's a decent article that lists some (of the many) variables to this equation:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

As I hinted earlier, the whole Iran-GCC angle will begin to change as the US exists the region. The GCC cannot protect itself from Iran without the US umbrella. With the US on the decline, the GCC will have no choice but to make peace with Iran, and hopefully, this will bring a paradigm shift in the entire civilization. Pakistan is hoping for this eventuality, a united Muslim World is a strategic imperative for Pakistan. (This is one of the reasons why the Arabs/Iranians/Turks all trust Pakistan, even when they don't trust each other.) And increased Chinese partnerships in both Iran/GCC and even Turkey are only going to compliment Pakistan's own interests.



I think by now everyone realizes that Pakistan is going to block out any other actor from gaining influence over Afghanistan. We can't afford issues on our Western front right now.

Click to expand...

I thought the sudden Israel GCC normalizations announced recently are supposed to build a united front against Iran. Don't forget Qatar as well.

I think by now everyone realizes that Pakistan is going to block out any other actor from gaining influence over Afghanistan. We can't afford issues on our Western front right now.

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Absolutely.
The biggest and newest "elephant" in the room to emerge is Russia.
The Indian social media and hyper nationalist Hindi language electronic media have now started hammering Russia because of its perceived neutrality in the Sino-Indian conflict.
Russia is fast becoming India's whipping boy because it perceives itself as "you are either with us or against us" great power.
Russia has irked India because of the following;
1. Neutrality in the Sino-Indian conflict
2. Interest in the CPEC . Not entirely clear what this is but it is enough to make India really upset.
3. Trade relations in Yuan not dollars with China. Russia trades with India in dollars.,
4.Neutrality in the South China sea dispute. ( though in fact Russia has put its Pacific Command on a low level alert).
5. Supply of RD-93 engines for Pakistan's JF17 fighter.( A VERY sore point)
6.Supply of Mil 17 and Mil 35 helicopters.
7.War games and joint exercises with Pakistan.
8. Assistance ( offered but not given yet) to Pakistan in the oil, gas, steel and power sectors.

The China Russia relations are being keenly watched in India and there is a growing disappointment in the lackluster support from Russia.

hullopilllw said:

Gwadar is nothing compared to Chabahar Port, and India is linking it through to Afghanistan to undercut Gwadar.

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Disagree.
India is out of Chabahar. The Chahbahar Zahedan link will be built by Iran itself with funds and assistance from China, Part of a $400 billion dollars 25 year package.,
Gwadar is a growing city. From a fishing village it already has an international airport and at least one 5-star hotels. Chabahar doesn't have these even though it has been an established port for quite sometime.
May I know how you claim Gwadar to be "nothing " when it is still in a growing mode?