Confirmed Fake News Spread by You Know Who .........
Ladakh Flash Point
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Confirmed Fake News Spread by You Know Who .........
Behold those who must not be named.
Do you have any "before and after" maps of the LAC?
What may happen is converting the LAC into an active controlled simmering conflict with occasional light mortar, machine gun and sniper fire exchanges, exactly like the LOC with Pakistan.
It makes wonderful Prime Time TV news in maintaining a hyper-national environment. Basic translations of Indian Hindi language channels show the large font screen filling headlines and screaming voice over audio
Usually the opening statement goed like this ;
"Breaking news ! Valiant Indian army kills two Pakistani soldiers and destroys two border posts... Pakistan Army cringes before our jawbreaker strike..."
Grainy footage of mortar fire follows with large font nearly filling the screen.
Such fake hyped media environment has to be maintained for political reasons because the ruling establishment ( like EoJ in the 1930s ) thrives on a war fever pitch.
What must not allowed to happen is:
1. No major reverse or retaliation.
Casualties from gun fire must be
kept to single digits but periodic
and regular.
2. If a major reverse or retaliation does happen then the strategy is
(a) Play the victim card and show
tearful funeral ceremonies ;
sobbing widows on TV.
(b) Claim an exaggerated retribution
on the enemy. "300 Pakistani
troops killed in retaliatory strike
etc, "
The simmering LOC is the biggest political capital for the regime because it re-enforces the communal divide within, The Indo-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir is not merely a territorial dispute but religious one and the vengeance for Pakistani actions must be wreaked on Indian Muslims and Indian Kashmiris. The pot is kept boiling through pre-planned pogroms, and lynchings, which adds further material to the hyper-propaganda mill.
The "retaliation " from the India is invariably against civilian targets on the Pakistani side where the Indian artillery takes a heavy toll of civilian lives with thousands killed on injured. Pakistani army casualties are relatively light because they are usually safe in hardened and concealed bunkers. Pakistan is completely hamstrung in any kind of significant retaliation on Indian civilians because they consider Kashmiris on the other side of the border as their own. The Pakistanis do retaliate against the Indian artillery fire as best as they can in an effort to save their own civilian lives but taking out well entrenched and hidden artillery positions in mountainous terrain is no easy task. While Pakistan maintains a rough parity in losses inflicted on its adversary and losses suffered it looses heavily in terms of loss of civilian lives and severe collateral damage to vital civilian infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, communications, air raid shelters, livestock, food stocks, water supply and civilian homes. With the destruction of housing, food stocks, hospitals and medical supplies there is an additional heavy loss of life due to exposure to weather and lack of medical care. However the civilian losses do not degrade Pakistani defensive capabilities much which remain relatively unaffected even under the most intense artillery fire.
Obvious differences between the LAC and LOC and what an "active" LAC would look like.
- The LAC except perhaps in South Tibet is very sparsely populated and mountainous. There is no civilian population on the Chinese side to target like on the LOC so there would be forays from the Indian side and sporadic sniper and mortar fire.
-There would be no periodic escalation like on the LOC. The escalation pattern on the LOC is a transition from sniper and mortar fire to rocket propelled grenades, to 23 mm modified AA guns ( in horizontal use) to the 105 mm towed artillery.. Unless a full fledged conflict breaks out the 105 mm artillery is the maximum firepower India directs at Pakistani civilians though 155 mm fire is directed on Pakistani army positions. MRLS or short range ballistic missiles have so far not been used on civilians by India though ATGMs in a horizontal mode have been used. In one spectacular case a Pakistani school bus ferrying about 30 children was quite expertly targeted from very long range by an ATGM.
- There could be brief special forces engagements with light weapons
with limited territory gains. Pakistani special forces ( which India calls BAT or Border Action Team) do engage in skirmishes with their Indian counterparts or sporadic attacks on Indian border posts, The objective is to divert India border posts, and allow passage of Kashmiri militants into Kashmir.The Pakistani objective is also a psy-op deterrence rather than an intention to inflict any significant damage of which Pakistan has a limited capability anyway. In any case Pakistan has learnt to live with its minimal loss of military personnel on the LOC, and is resigned itself to suffer the huge civilian losses India inflicts.
- It would be interesting to see if China would be somewhat like Pakistan in handling an active LAC . Of course ss mentioned China has zero risk of civilian casualties.
- Unlike 1962 there is no ethnic Chinese community in India left to be targeted in a state sponsored pogrom.
There have been plenty of maps, photos, satellite caps, and various types of information in this thread with few of them government sanctioned or supplied. Based on statements from various Indian sources it is almost undeniably obvious that a great deal of Indian claimed lands have been settled by the PLA. If this were not the case there would be no confrontations and there would be very little attention from all sides of Indian media. Not to mention both governments recently making light of the situation that developed. There would also be no need to hold so many talks if the status quo hasn't shifted.
As outside observers, none of us (not even those journalists with connections to respective governments on both sides) have access to comprehensive military maps showing exact positions but the PLA presence up to the western side of point Finger 4 and presence at PP14 in Galwan valley is no longer contested by Indian media or government. We can only make the conclusion that the PLA is still on those positions which is many kilometers deep inside of Indian claims because the talks were ongoing and the latest CCP announcement on this drama has been on India's short lived intrusion into Reqin and trying to take various points south of Pangong lake, while it maintains legitimacy of its actions. That may be a matter of subjectivity but at least it shows China hasn't moved at all.
I understand there are Indians who want to deny any changes to the status quo. But if this were true, why would either government not be putting water on the media flames? Why do both governments recognise the tense situation along with ongoing talks. There is zero chance that China hasn't made unilateral changes north of Pangong lake because if that were the case Modi would be dancing on TV repeating his old "no intrusion" line. Keep in mind the semantics here are a source of confusion and manipulated often. China doesn't consider any of this an intrusion since they think India's been constantly intruding for the greater part of 50 years despite the war in the 60s. Consider also that China's claims have been pretty much as consistent as Indian claims since the establishment of both nations in the 20th century.
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
It is simply not possible for India to do that with China, because the power balance is so overwhelmingly stacked in Chinese favour.
With Pakistan, because India is the stronger party, it can effectively determine the level of hostilities as it can confidently bet that Pakistan would not wish to escalate beyond a certain point.
With China, it is the Chinese who hold absolute escalation dominance at pretty much every level. That means it will be up to China to decide what level hostilities will escalate to, and it will also be down to China to decide how long any active combat takes place because it can chose to end active combat pretty much any time it wants by simply obliterating the Indian military within any distance it wants from the boarder.
China does not want a long running active conflict with India. As such, if an Indian unit or position actually opens fire on the PLA, it will swiftly be obliterated by overwhelming PLA firepower.
If the PLA feels like it, it could go much further and launch a pre-emotive offensive, as it did in 62, and effectively erase India’s ability to continue fighting.
China’s patience with India is wearing thin as it is, if India was stupid enough to actually engage in large scale direct combat, the PLA’s response would be overwhelming to such an extent that combat would naturally stop pretty rapidly as the PLA would literally run out of Indian targets to hit in the boarder regions extremely quickly.
And those who must not be named should mind their own business
Not sure why would they drag all other while getting their azz whopped,
That's a lot of words that doesn't really say anything.
There's a lot of feeling at places like cjdby that think there's a significant amount of US element behind Indian's posture. That US is enticing India into an alliance ala something like US-Australia, but the US requires India to first demonstrate that they are militarily useful by offensive action against China.
I however don't think this is actually true because Indian psyche would not allow themselves to become the junior partner in such a relationship, since they are very determined to prove that they are on their own a superpower.
That depends. If we're talking about responding to the regular Tuesday shelling on the LOC, there is a toleration of that because we can respond with shelling of our own, as well as sniper fire which KIAs a lot of Indian soldiers. (Also, there are 'other' options.)
However, there are hard limits to that toleration, which India got reminded of last year. When push comes to shove, it's India which backs down, because they are not willing to escalate beyond a certain point. India knows Pakistan is 'crazy' enough to go into full-on 'jihad mode', at the flip of a switch.
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