Ladakh Flash Point

Mirabo · Sep 23, 2020

I would like to point out one thing about GDP numbers and how misleading it can be, especially when percentage growth is involved.

China used to enjoy a 10% GDP growth rate and now it's sitting at around 6%. After a few years, it will decline to 2-3% like most developed countries. It sounds like a bad thing but it really isn't.

In 2009, China's GDP was around 5.5 trillion USD (in 2010 dollars). 2010 saw a GDP growth rate of 10.6%, which added ~580 billion dollars. In 2017, China's GDP was 10.2 trillion USD, while 2018 saw a GDP growth rate of "only" 6.5%. Yet by the end of 2018, China had added ~690 billion dollars to GDP despite the far lower growth rate. In today's USD, that works out to 1.5 trillion dollars worth of nominal GDP growth.

The growth rate in percentage is declining, but in nominal terms, the growth of the Chinese economy is still accelerating. Or at least, was accelerating until COVID happened. But as we all know, China has the situation under control after locking down for three gruelling months, and is ready to continue servicing the global economy while most other countries are struggling to get back on their feet.

The Chinese economy is in a good position to overcome the middle income trap. The situation is far from ideal, but the obstacles are not unsurmountable either.

nugroho · Sep 23, 2020

Inst said:
Applied to the Sino-Indian situation, Indian senior policymakers are well aware that they need more time in order to "deal with" the Chinese; i.e, China is already a newly developed country and its growth rate is going to slow, between the trade war and the marked Chinese preference for social development as opposed to economic development in the next decade. India, on the other hand, if it can get out of this recession, will likely have around 2-3% real growth advantages over China over the next decade.

India can get out from this recession, but never catch up economically with China, not in this decade , not in 2-3 more decades. Why? Today China weighs on automatisation. China still lack in high metallurgy and sophisticated semiconductor, but it will be overcome by huge money and scientists.

discspinner · Sep 23, 2020

Inst said:
The reason I'm stating that India will outgrow China after the recession is over is because China is now struggling to break out of the middle income trap. 8-10% growth wasn't going to last forever; based on that metric by 2049 China would have a 170,000 USD per capita GDP in 2011 dollars.

The Chinese can do everything right and the Indians everything wrong, but it's just a question of low-hanging fruits. Besides, China is deprioritizing quantity of growth vs quality of growth.

The point being, India and China on the Sino-Indian border is a question of raw strategic potential (China) vs convenience of logistics (India). The raw strategic difference is going to narrow over time; 10 years of 3% (iirc I said 2-3%) growth advantage puts a relative growth of 33%, or 4.5 goes to 3.5 and 3.5 goes to 3.

Got news for you. India is having serious trouble breaking INTO the middle income annual per capita income category. Look at all the countries with similar per capita GDP nominal as China. Even at those levels, NONE of those countries have anywhere close to the breadth and depth of industry, technology, and research that China has. At the end of the day, GDP is metric to track progress, but doesn't automatically translate into high end industry and cutting edge research.

siegecrossbow · Sep 23, 2020

Is this a joke?

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NEW DELHI: The army requires a
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of close-quarter battle rifles on an immediate basis, given current tensions on
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(LAC) where troops are deployed at close range and have even engaged in hand-to-hand fighting over the past months.

Sources have told ET that a larger order for over 350,000 close quarter battle carbines has been reserved for the Indian industry but an immediate requirement of 93,895 carbines that has been processed since 2018 is vital for a combative edge.

The army has been without a close-quarter battle weapon for years, with officials saying that
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are being used for the role, reducing the
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of troops. While the weapons are particularly useful in anti-terrorist operations, they also have immense utility in border operations where a clash between troops can take place at close quarters.

Sources said that the army supports initiatives by the private and public sector in developing these weapons in-house and has started engaging with companies for a larger order of 350,000 rifles that will be fully made in India, with options for exports too.

However, this process is likely to take at least two to three years before the local industry can offer viable options, with enough capacity to produce the weapons. "The present and immediate necessity cannot be compromised. The weapons are an absolute immediate requirement and only one-fifth of the total numbers needed are being processed through a fast-track procurement," officials who did not wish to be named said.

As reported by ET, in a meeting held last week, chaired by the defence secretary, it was decided that plans in the works since 2018 to import a limited number of close quarter battle carbines to meet immediate requirements are to be shelved in favour of a Make-in-India plan. The high-powered
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, however, still has to ratify the decision.

The fast-track process initiated in 2018 for 93,895 carbines envisaged a shortened delivery period from an active assembly line. Since no Indian company had a viable option, foreign companies had been chosen for the trial and evaluation process.

Sources said that the capacity to make such weapons is being acquired by Indian companies and over the course of the next 2-3 years options will be available.

LawLeadsToPeace · Sep 23, 2020

siegecrossbow said:
Is this a joke?

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Looks like someone got bribed by a foreign company.

Figaro · Sep 23, 2020

Gatekeeper said:
Reading this is a waste 5 minutes of my life that I'll never get back. It's unbelievable naive.

The highlights being comparing provincial China poorest and richest nonsense. In geopolitics it's nothing to do with riches or poorest provinces. China's military strength comes from the aggregate of the nation's wealth.

And as for the growth rates of China and India comparison, you do realised China is 4 times bigger that India's. Right? Even using you figures that India Is going to grow 3% more than China's. At that rate, it would take them at least 40 years to catch up!

China's GDP nominal is now over 5 times greater than that of India, with the gap significantly increasing this year due to India's coronavirus induced recession. It will be closer to 6 times the size of India's GDP by the time the dust settles.

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siegecrossbow said:
Is this a joke?

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You cannot expect much out of an army that has only 10 days worth of ammunition or a MIC which cannot even develop towed artillery systems. The funny thing is in the 2 to 3 years the Indian Army will get these foreign carbines, the Chinese will get the WS-15, the J-35, and a supercarrier. If you thought the economic gap was wide between India and China, think about the military gap lol.

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siegecrossbow · Sep 23, 2020

Figaro said:
China's GDP nominal is now over 5 times greater than that of India, with the gap significantly increasing this year due to India's coronavirus induced recession. It will be closer to 6 times the size of India's GDP by the time the dust settles.

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You cannot expect much out of an army that has only 10 days worth of ammunition or a MIC which cannot even develop towed artillery systems. The funny thing is in the 2 to 3 years the Indian Army will get these foreign carbines, the Chinese will get the WS-15, the J-35, and a supercarrier. If you thought the economic gap was wide between India and China, think about the military gap lol.

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I guess the PLA can chill until the Indian army can get their supplies in order. Coincidentally the Indian Army can chill in the coming month because, you know, snow and stuff.

Temstar · Sep 23, 2020

siegecrossbow said:
Is this a joke?

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I thought maybe we're dealing with something new here and "close quarter battle carbines" refers to some new concept like say, a carbine chambered for 7.62mm rounds or something like that, you know like a AR-15 based platform chamberd for .300 Blackout, something that might have some unique application in Ladakh. But no they are just referring to your standard "take intermediate cartridge assault rifle and make it shorter" carbine.

Why does this even matter. If there's a hot war in Ladakh it's not going to be decided between who's using full length assault rifles and who's using carbines. It's going to be decided in the air.

gelgoog · Sep 23, 2020

I agree it just sounds like some excuse for graft. Indian military procurement is simply pathetic. They can't even decide on a single main rifle ammo caliber. They are buying both NATO and Russian assault rifles. It is pretty inane.

Bright Sword · Sep 23, 2020

gelgoog said:
I agree it just sounds like some excuse for graft. Indian military procurement is simply pathetic. They can't even decide on a single main rifle ammo caliber. They are buying both NATO and Russian assault rifles. It is pretty inane.

The INSAS appears to be a having issues. Wonder who thought of coloring the stock orange. It makes concealment quite difficult and is visible for at least a kilometer. Also the barrel and receiver are painted black ( what a contrast!) ; painted not blued so when the paint flakes off the white metal below is visible, The acrylic transparent magazine was designed with good intent to let the soldiers know how many rounds are left. But acrylic is best for indoor use and does get affected by UV in the sun and may deteriorate and crack. India is very correctly transitioning from the INSAS to M4s , AKs, and SigSauers, But now there are several makes of battle rifles to maintain, An armorers nightmare.

Ladakh Flash Point

Mirabo

Junior Member

nugroho

Junior Member

discspinner

Junior Member

siegecrossbow

General

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member

Figaro

Senior Member

siegecrossbow

General

Temstar

Brigadier

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

Bright Sword

Junior Member