What may happen is converting the LAC into an active controlled simmering conflict with occasional light mortar, machine gun and sniper fire exchanges, exactly like the LOC with Pakistan.
It makes wonderful Prime Time TV news in maintaining a hyper-national environment. Basic translations of Indian Hindi language channels show the large font screen filling headlines and screaming voice over audio
Usually the opening statement goed like this ;
"Breaking news ! Valiant Indian army kills two Pakistani soldiers and destroys two border posts... Pakistan Army cringes before our jawbreaker strike..."
Grainy footage of mortar fire follows with large font nearly filling the screen.
Such fake hyped media environment has to be maintained for political reasons because the ruling establishment ( like EoJ in the 1930s ) thrives on a war fever pitch.
What must not allowed to happen is:
1. No major reverse or retaliation.
Casualties from gun fire must be
kept to single digits but periodic
and regular.
2. If a major reverse or retaliation does happen then the strategy is
(a) Play the victim card and show
tearful funeral ceremonies ;
sobbing widows on TV.
(b) Claim an exaggerated retribution
on the enemy. "300 Pakistani
troops killed in retaliatory strike
etc, "
The simmering LOC is the biggest political capital for the regime because it re-enforces the communal divide within, The Indo-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir is not merely a territorial dispute but religious one and the vengeance for Pakistani actions must be wreaked on Indian Muslims and Indian Kashmiris. The pot is kept boiling through pre-planned pogroms, and lynchings, which adds further material to the hyper-propaganda mill.
The "retaliation " from the India is invariably against civilian targets on the Pakistani side where the Indian artillery takes a heavy toll of civilian lives with thousands killed on injured. Pakistani army casualties are relatively light because they are usually safe in hardened and concealed bunkers. Pakistan is completely hamstrung in any kind of significant retaliation on Indian civilians because they consider Kashmiris on the other side of the border as their own. The Pakistanis do retaliate against the Indian artillery fire as best as they can in an effort to save their own civilian lives but taking out well entrenched and hidden artillery positions in mountainous terrain is no easy task. While Pakistan maintains a rough parity in losses inflicted on its adversary and losses suffered it looses heavily in terms of loss of civilian lives and severe collateral damage to vital civilian infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, communications, air raid shelters, livestock, food stocks, water supply and civilian homes. With the destruction of housing, food stocks, hospitals and medical supplies there is an additional heavy loss of life due to exposure to weather and lack of medical care. However the civilian losses do not degrade Pakistani defensive capabilities much which remain relatively unaffected even under the most intense artillery fire.
Obvious differences between the LAC and LOC and what an "active" LAC would look like.
- The LAC except perhaps in South Tibet is very sparsely populated and mountainous. There is no civilian population on the Chinese side to target like on the LOC so there would be forays from the Indian side and sporadic sniper and mortar fire.
-There would be no periodic escalation like on the LOC. The escalation pattern on the LOC is a transition from sniper and mortar fire to rocket propelled grenades, to 23 mm modified AA guns ( in horizontal use) to the 105 mm towed artillery.. Unless a full fledged conflict breaks out the 105 mm artillery is the maximum firepower India directs at Pakistani civilians though 155 mm fire is directed on Pakistani army positions. MRLS or short range ballistic missiles have so far not been used on civilians by India though ATGMs in a horizontal mode have been used. In one spectacular case a Pakistani school bus ferrying about 30 children was quite expertly targeted from very long range by an ATGM.
- There could be brief special forces engagements with light weapons
with limited territory gains. Pakistani special forces ( which India calls BAT or Border Action Team) do engage in skirmishes with their Indian counterparts or sporadic attacks on Indian border posts, The objective is to divert India border posts, and allow passage of Kashmiri militants into Kashmir.The Pakistani objective is also a psy-op deterrence rather than an intention to inflict any significant damage of which Pakistan has a limited capability anyway. In any case Pakistan has learnt to live with its minimal loss of military personnel on the LOC, and is resigned itself to suffer the huge civilian losses India inflicts.
- It would be interesting to see if China would be somewhat like Pakistan in handling an active LAC . Of course ss mentioned China has zero risk of civilian casualties.
- Unlike 1962 there is no ethnic Chinese community in India left to be targeted in a state sponsored pogrom.
