Ladakh Flash Point

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[witty username]

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Which may happen.
Russia is already dragging its feet on delivery claiming the Corona Pandemic is delaying their production. Also a more even handed anti-Russian administration after US elections could impose CATSA restrictions on India if it attempts to buy Russian arms. The Indian right wing has a substantial lobby in Washington that has kept India from getting the same treatment as Turkey over the S-400 purchase but their political orientation towards the Republicans and President Trump
has been noted by the Democrats. If the incumbent president loses then the lobby would have to switch sides and court the new administration to avoid getting sanctioned by a law passed under the very administration they once supported. The S-400s may not come after all.
Ironic !

I think Trump will lose, either conventionally or through some underhanded coup, due to the coronavirus they are doing mail-in ballots this election and contrary to many MSM reports of such a system being watertight, there will be huge potential for fraud, especially given how partisan American politics has become, America is actually starting to resemble a Third World nation in this regard. The BLM riots seem to be similar to CIA colour revolutions, and it is no secret that the US intelligence community is very antagonistic towards Trump.

Biden is senile, I wouldn't be surprised if Harris takes over soon after a Biden victory, Harris is herself a bit of a shape shifter in the ethnic sense, she is half-Indian, half Jamaican and seems to have been raised by her mother (Indian), although she maintains a black persona when it is convenient.

The US will compromise far less with India should Biden win, the Democrats are absolutely obsessed with Russia, and so India-Russia relations will not be looked upon as favourably by the new admin.
 

Mirabo

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Hello.
I don't understand economy much as i ain't in that field, so I wanted to ask, how does China US economic comparison in dollar term works?
China has been using own Labour base for doing manufacturing & now they are manufacturing of their own using local Labour & resources. Minus the import, they have been using their own currency, isn't that right?
And for US , they have printed 5 trillion in 5 months which is 1/4 th of their entire GDP. So how much of it is real?

It is difficult to compare any two economies because there is way too much to compare. GDP is actually one of the most useless statistics, it's only good for a broad indication of the size of an economy. China's GDP is 13+ trillion dollars today, and US GDP is 20+ trillion. All that tells us is that China's economy is pretty big but not as big as the US. There are too many differences between these two countries.

China is unrivaled when it comes to manufacturing thanks to a few reasons, including its sophisticated logistics network and work culture, and large population which means a large talent pool, among other factors. But there are a lot of things that China doesn't do so well. For example, it's difficult to keep cash within China's borders, partly because of the archaic financial policies and also because rich people have better places to spend their money in. This makes it difficult for the government to collect the proper amount of taxes and fund state-owned programs, which is a big headache for a socialist government.

On the other hand, the US has a much more open financial system which makes it easy to move money to and from the country, which means people feel comfortable to keep cash inside US borders - but not the case for China. The US has some of the best talent in the world and that's not a coincidence, because US institutions have a well-deserved reputation for high-end R&D in certain areas. However, there is relatively little manufacturing in the US, because worker costs are very high and the country overall has been slow to adapt to some technologies that we take for granted in other parts of the world, e.g. digital payment. The extreme focus on private corporations has given US companies a larger competitive edge but also contributes to wealth inequality.

So it's impossible to use statistics alone to compare the Chinese economy with the US economy. The only way to get an accurate picture is to examine a lot of different aspects, so that you can consider qualititative factors as well, not just quantitative.

As for the US printing 500 billion dollars in 5 months (not 5 trillion, that's a stupid number), all of it is real. The USD is issued by US banks under the guidance of the US Federal Reserve, which is the central bank dictating fiscal policy. It has value because they say it has value, and also because everyone around the world loves trading in USD so everyone also says it has value. I also love USD because everyone else uses it, it's accepted everywhere, and it's easy to move around.

One of the bastions of the US economy its ability to print its own currency without consequences. That's how the US government never runs out of money. The US national debt is 26.7 trillion dollars, but do they need to care? No! As long as international trade continues to be conducted primarily in USD, they can print as many magic dollars as they want. Even though China is breaking away from the US dollar in some areas, like by trading oil and minerals in yuan, they are quietly collecting more USD at the same time, because USD is the most powerful currency today. It is very difficult to make international USD payments from China, because Chinese banks understand that today, if you have no USD you lose.
 

Figaro

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As an example joint Russian Chinese research on high performance jet engines for fighter aircraft is significant
Nope ... the Chinese and Russians do not have any significant collaboration on gas turbine research besides a vague MOU. The Russians are very often unreliable partners, as the Indians have learned the hard way. The current state of the art Chinese and Russian engines, the WS-15 and Product 30, are completely independent. I could not imagine any sort of meaningful collaboration between the two this regard.
Not really.
China buys substantial amounts of military hardware from Russia and more importantly technologies to design and build these itself
This was true maybe a decade or two ago ... the last noteworthy purchase of military hardware occured in 2015 for the Su-35 and S-400. Beyond that, there have been only very small intermittent purchases.
 

Mohsin77

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Gwadar is nothing compared to Chabahar Port, and India is linking it through to Afghanistan to undercut Gwadar.

India is already kicked out of the Chabahar project by Iran and China. And even if it wasn't, it isn't capable of "linking" anything through Afghanistan, because it has been kicked out of Afghanistan by Pakistan. Besides, Chabahar isn't really a competitor to Gwadar to begin with, because its only link to Central Asia goes through Afghanistan, which is not exactly conducive to secure logistics. Chabahar is still a great project for Iran though, and I hope it gets up and running. I think both ports would compliment each other and increase the HDI of the entire region. Pakistan celebrated the China-Iran deal that happened recently.

I thought the sudden Israel GCC normalizations announced recently are supposed to build a united front against Iran. Don't forget Qatar as well.

GCC's policies aren't all that coordinated or united. Overall, their "united front" against Iran doesn't really mean much, without a US protective umbrella. This situation is in flux right now, but the blips on the graph will smooth out in the end, towards normalization with Iran (rather than Israel.) Besides, "normalization" with Israel doesn't really mean anything. Look at Turkey, that was the closest thing to a 'friend' Israel had in the region (they even let the Israeli air force train in Turkey)... All that went out the window in a heartbeat.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
So, from a Chinese perspective, what is the end goal here? What really prevents a formal international border from being established?
End goal is to make sure India doesn't bother Chinese borders in the future... Ever again. It means it will not be a LOC but a legally defined border on Chinese terms, not some arbitrary line not accepted by China draw by Brits or Indian. Nothing prevents China from signing, it's India with the forward policy.
 

caudaceus

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Look at Turkey, that was the closest thing to a 'friend' Israel had in the region (they even let the Israeli air force train in Turkey)... All that went out the window in a heartbeat.
Will this stance be permanent? Or limited as long as AKP/Erdogan on the throne? This is also my question regarding Sino Russian relationship. Can the cordial relationebe maintained post Putin? A number of realist IR experts such as John Mearsheimer suggests another Russian reset to contain China.
 

gelgoog

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It is doubtful a Russia-US reset will happen with the US constantly fanning the flames. I mean just look at Belarus today.
If Trump wins, things will continue as usual, if Biden wins, the same people who did the color revolution strategy in the Obama administration will be back in power. Biden himself was involved in the Ukrainian coup. A lot of people think Russia might even select someone from the military after Putin. I think it is unlikely but a turn to the West is even more unlikely. They tried a reset with Medvedev and what happened? US proxies in Georgia interfered and made Putin come back into full power. I don't think the original plan was for Putin to come back as President in the first place but Western policies and Medvedev's inability to react promptly in Georgia as President made it so. He was put on probation as President and he failed in that regard. That's why Putin removed him from the line of succession in their party and even removed him from the government in practice recently.

So no, I think Russia learned its lesson. They tried inward focusing and making peace gestures to the West only to be stabbed in return. So I doubt they will do it again anytime soon.

Putin has always had the policy that India and China should have a working relationship. India still is a major purchaser of Russian arms but India cannot supply Russia with the goods and services they require and with the sanctions only China is available as a trade partner.
Conceding would mean NATO surrounding Russia even more and interference in Russia proper to destabilize the federation. The Russians aren't interested in that.

India should just stick to its neutrality policy, it would serve them better in the long run, but their current administration is too dumb for this. The US is an unreliable business partner even more so with Trump in office. The F-35 is a Trojan Horse since you would be getting an aircraft with US made software which can't be inspected that's connected to a service and parts network centralized in the US. The US would even know which weapon layout each of your aircraft has and which can be on the air at any one time. Which sane country would want that?
 
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caudaceus

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It is doubtful a Russia-US reset will happen with the US constantly fanning the flames. I mean just look at Belarus today.
If Trump wins, things will continue as usual, if Biden wins, the same people who did the color revolution strategy in the Obama administration will be back in power. Biden himself was involved in the Ukrainian coup. A lot of people think Russia might even select someone from the military after Putin. I think it is unlikely but a turn to the West is even more unlikely. They tried a reset with Medvedev and what happened? US proxies in Georgia interfered and made Putin come back into full power. I don't think the original plan was for Putin to come back as President in the first place but Western policies and Medvedev's inability to react promptly in Georgia as President made it so. He was put on probation as President and he failed in that regard. That's why Putin removed him from the line of succession in heir party and even major government jobs.

So no, I think Russia learned its lesson. They tried inward focusing and making peace gestures to the West only to be stabbed in return. So I doubt they will do it again anytime soon.

Putin has always had the policy that India and China should have a working relationship. India still is a major purchaser of Russian arms but India cannot supply Russia with the goods and services they require and with the sanctions only China is available as a trade partner.
Conceding would mean NATO surrounding Russia even more and interference in Russia proper to destabilize the federation. The Russians aren't interested in that.

India should just stick to its neutrality policy, it would serve them better in the long run, but their current administration is too dumb for this. The US is an unreliable business partner even more so with Trump in office.
They gonna assume and hope that next Russian leader will be someone like Navalny though.
 
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