Ladakh Flash Point

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vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Bill Blazo said:
How do the recent border tensions fit into China's larger grand strategy with India? Is China jockeying for position for a permanent border agreement by grabbing as much territory as it can? To me it's pretty clear that India will never get Aksai Chin and China will never get Arunachal, at least not without a major war. But neither government actually wants a major war; they've both been pretty clear about this. The most I can see either one tolerating is a local and isolated conflict, but then you always have to worry about escalation and things getting out of hand. So what's the point of prolonging these border tensions instead of just finalizing the border? To rally domestic public opinion by having an enemy you can point to? Does China want to keep India permanently on the defensive by presenting it with the potential of a multiple-front war? I think this latter option carries a lot of risks. Yes, India would have Germany's strategic dilemma in a World War III (facing two major opponents on both blanks), but so would China, facing the US in the east and India to the south.

Provocative question time. A divided Asia clearly helps the United States. Wouldn't China want to maintain friendly relations India to counter American power? Or does Chinese the government believe it can do this without Indian help? I tend to think they believe the latter, that they don't need a friendly India, but again, there are many risks involved with that grand strategy.

As far as I know, India is the only continental Asian country with which China has not finalized its border. Why is this? Because their border is so complex (Himalayas and all)? Because both sides believe they can still make territorial gains? Some other reason?

It'll be interesting to see if the Chinese make further pushes in the winter, when it'll be very difficult for the Indians to hold and supply their new forward positions.
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Your premise is China being the aggressor
 
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Bill Blazo

Junior Member
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vincent said:
Your premise is China being the aggressor
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I never used that term, so that's not my premise. But much depends on what you mean by "aggressor." If it means "whoever has the strategic initiative on multiple fronts (military, economic, diplomatic, etc)," then yeah I think that's China. If it means "whoever launches an attack first against someone," then it can be anyone. India was an aggressor when it attacked Goa in the 60s, Sikkim in the 70s, and on numerous other occasions.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Bill Blazo said:
I never used that term, so that's not my premise. But much depends on what you mean by "aggressor." If it means "whoever has the strategic initiative on multiple fronts (military, economic, diplomatic, etc)," then yeah I think that's China. If it means "whoever launches an attack first against someone," then it can be anyone. India was an aggressor when it attacked Goa in the 60s, Sikkim in the 70s, and on numerous other occasions.
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You don't need to use that term. Your whole rant is full of it
Read up on India's forward deploy policy and who absorbed Sikkim first.

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Bill Blazo

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vincent said:
You don't need to use that term. Your whole rant is full of it
Read up on India's forward deploy policy and who absorbed Sikkim first.

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I'm fully aware of India's strategic policies, and of its neo-imperial expansion at the end of the 20th century. Did you even read what I wrote? I don't think I was ranting, but thank you for your assessment anyway.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
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So the IA left the Reqin camp and now the PLA has regained control of the Chinese sided Reqin area as we all predicted.

It was unlikely for the IA to stay in that position unless they were looking for confrontations. So they obviously went in for the purposes of the recent Indian publicity efforts. Looks like they went in, celebrated, took some videos/photos maybe left some stuff there and left before PLA got there to evict. This avoids confrontation but achieves the desired publicity effect for Modi.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Bill Blazo said:
I'm fully aware of India's strategic policies, and of its neo-imperial expansion at the end of the 20th century. Did you even read what I wrote? I don't think I was ranting, but thank you for your assessment anyway.
Click to expand...

Bill Blazo said:
How do the recent border tensions fit into China's larger grand strategy with India? Is China jockeying for position for a permanent border agreement by grabbing as much territory as it can?
Click to expand...

Oh please, stop playing with word games. Many here (including me) are native English speakers.
 
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