Ladakh Flash Point

plawolf said:

What you are doing is misrepresenting reactive countermeasures by China to Indian active moves as active moves by China, and then using that as the basis for asking a loaded question about Chinese strategic intentions.

China isn’t trying to ‘keep the boarder conflict’ going in order to provide a justification to grab land. That’s what India is doing. China is merely reacting to those Indian moves.

As such, it is not keeping the boarder dispute open and active, it is merely resisting Indian attempts at land grabs.

If India would stop trying to change the status quo on the ground, there would be no conflict. The boarder dispute will still remain as neither side wants to give up their claims, but that has been the case for decades. Tension and violence only flares up when the Indians get uppity and wants to try their luck.

If China wanted to take land or change the status quo through force of arms, it merely need to actually do so. India has already given China more than enough excuse to launch a 62 level operation if it wanted to take land by force of arms.

That’s the key difference between the tactical and strategic choices between Delhi and Beijing.

China knows it can settle the boarder dispute to its claim line using military force basically any time it wants. Hence why it doesn’t care to engage in petty salami slicing antics. India OTOH, knows that the only way it can gain any land is through low level salami slicing, where each encroachment is small enough to not warrant a full scale PLA military response, but if allowed to be done over long enough a period of time, will cumulatively add up to a fair amount of territorial gain.

India is constantly trying their luck with little salami slices until the PLA decides enough is enough and makes counter pushes. At which point India squeals like a stabbed pig and tries to draw all the world’s attention to the Chinese reaction as a means to trying to push pressure to force the PLA to stop because it knows full well it doesn’t have the military strength to make the PLA stop themselves.

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jfy1155 said:

Someone here mentioned about that.

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SampanViking said:

Does anyone know or have heard anything about this story on the BBC website this morning?

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siegecrossbow said:

Judging from Zhao Lijian's response this is a tacit admission that China did "kidnap" them? Otherwise they'd deny it vehmently.

That said, I'd take the civilian claim with a grain of salt. It is entirely possible that they are plain-dressed soldiers on infiltration mission.

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plawolf said:

Only idiot yahoos who have no idea of how the real world works makes such stupid ill informed boasts.

The way international trade works is like a giant conveyor belt. Ships transport what is available depending on whether it fits their schedule and route, and don’t care about nationality. Chinese tankers can carry crude to America or Europe while European tankers can carry crude to China, and they do so all the time.

As such, targeting Chinese flagged tankers would be rather meaningless as their cargo could belong to anyone and be heading to anywhere.

Even if you physically board a tanker, what are you going to find it’s not like you can easily tell where oil is from just by inspecting it (as in what a boarding team can realistically do) never mind where it’s going? You still have no idea where it’s ultimately going if it’s paperwork is fake. Not to mention the sheer volume of traffic making such attempts absolutely ridiculous.

The only way to effectively achieve a blockade is to limit all physical passage. Then you don’t need to care about identifying which ships are heading to your target and just focus on interdicting or sinking them.

There is only one place on Earth anyone can do that to blockade China without bringing global trade to a screeching halt, and that isn’t the Indian Ocean.

Hint, it’s where America has been sticking it’s not in since Obama’s time to shit stir and where China has invested significant resources to turn into a death trap for hostile naval forces for exactly this reason.

This is more Indian delusions of grandeur. If they are daft enough to go after commercial shipping in the Indian Ocean, the next thing they know, an international fleet from Europe, America, Russia and China would be off their shores blockading them.

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Mohsin77 said:

Another variable that the Indian media is ignoring is the insurance rate for 3rd party shipping companies. In case of any conflict, those rates immediately kick in, which effectively creates its own 'blockade,' because to maintain shipping from 3rd party companies in conflicted waters is extremely expensive.

So basically, India could potentially self-blockade itself as soon as naval hostilities begin, simply due to the insurance rates. China on the other hand, will still have many options, because of its own flag carrying merchant navy, the size of which is another important variable. This chart below is a bit dated, but it shows that China already had the largest flag carrying merchant fleet in 2014:

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siegecrossbow said:

Judging from Zhao Lijian's response this is a tacit admission that China did "kidnap" them? Otherwise they'd deny it vehmently.

That said, I'd take the civilian claim with a grain of salt. It is entirely possible that they are plain-dressed soldiers on infiltration mission.

Click to expand...