If China were to strike Taiwan, India would surely take advantage of the situation and likely try to grab a chunk (but not the entire thing) of Aksai Chin, so whoever in power in New Delhi could claim that whatever was lost in 1962 has been retaken.
Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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I doubt it. Even if 90% of the PLA's overall strength was diverted to fight other fronts, the remaining 10% is more than capable of defending Tibet, including Aksai Chin. Note most certainly 90% of Chinese strength is not required to invade Taiwan or even fight of the United States; much of the Chinese Army and Air Force will still be available to be brought in the fight against India assuming a concurrent Taiwan operation is occurring. Not sure why you're assuming Taiwan would need to consume most of the PLA's operational capacity.
Well, you also need to consider the Indian Navy (backed by the USN and JMSDF) interdicting Chinese oil tankers in the India Ocean effectively cutting off China's maritime silk road under such two-front scenario.
well don’t be too mean otherwise what‘s the difference between us and them?
let them believe what ever they think is true
That could certainly happen. But it's just as conceivable that the war could escalate beyond India's intentions, dragging in Pakistan and even other countries. Between Pakistan and China's western forces, I don't like India's odds at all. Fighting a two-front war is rarely a winning strategy (but you can get a win out of it from time to time; see Prussia under Frederick the Great). Who knows, right? This is all pure speculation, and I hope we never have to find out. Wars have a way of defying all expectations.
I want to put this Malacca scenario to rest once and for all, so nobody wastes anymore brain cells thinking about it. Suppose India and the US completely shut down all maritime activity in the Malacca Strait and across all other Indonesian straits. I'm giving you that premise.
So what? China would simply shift its economic strategy towards a war economy, the way many nations have done for the last two centuries of modern warfare. It could do this through some simple steps:
1) Cut down on domestic non-military consumption, giving the military greater access to existing oil resources.
2) Import more oil from Russia and Central Asia to make up for some of the losses from the Middle East. It won't cover everything that China has lost, but the point is that it doesn't have to. China just needs enough oil to keep the military and certain critical sectors going. Everyone else can enjoy staying at home for a while!
3) Tap into the strategic reserves, if necessary. Again, the military would receive priority.
4) China has massive oil reserves and produces 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. It could boost production even further if it needs to. The US could and would try to disrupt some of this production, but the priority for the Americans would be Chinese military targets, not oil fields (at least not at first).
Through these simple steps, China could keep fighting against the US for years even while the Indian Ocean is completely shut down to commercial activity.
What people don't realize is china does have its own oil production capacity and it gets a good chunk from continental sources. I don't have the exact number, but I believe 50% of china's oil consumption is domestic production, and another 25% is from russia and central asia land pipelines with the remainder from maritime sources. I'm guessing the remaining 25% is mostly from middle east, but there could be some from venezuela, nigeria, malaysia which doesn't need to transit the indian ocean. At most, India would disrupt oil exports from Saudi/Iran/Iraq and while it would be damaging, a chinese economy on wartime footing would be able to continue fighting effectively against India with only 80% pre-war oil capacity. The other thing to realize is that India is even more reliant on imported oil than china, and almost all of it comes from the middle east. PLAAF interceptors based in Xinjiang probably stand a decent chance of sinking any tankers in Gujarat, or being able to lay waste to Jamnagar refinery or any of the ports on the western indian side. From that perspective, its probably India that would have to worry about being cut off from oil compared to China.
Also keep in mind that a large chunk of Chinese energy needs is for producing export goods. In event an all out war I don’t think exports are relevant. With government rationing I think China can fulfill energy self sufficiency.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Exactly plus China is building port at Myanmar Kyaukpyu and has oil and gas pipe line operating from the port I n Case of war I bet they will station warship there and Andaman see is only 1500 km from Yunnan so it should be no problem for fighter J11 B to strike any ship there
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