I doubt that, but let's see...
Fail.
Your original 'strategic calculus' was that China hit Ladakh to protect Modi from the coronavirus. And this new 'calculus' is still just as wrong. I could give you a whole lecture on Indian history and the insecure 'basis' of its nationalism, but it will be wasted on you.
What concerns me is the following, and it's the only reason I bothered replying:
Instead of attempting 'strategic calculus' maybe first learn basic arithmetic. Sum up all the land that Pakistan has captured from India and vice versa. Pakistan has liberated 1/3rd of Kashmir, which India has never been able to recover. The only land India has ever been able to capture aggressively from Pakistan is parts of the Siachin Glacier, and even that operation they screwed up and gained nothing from it.
As for Bangladesh, the math is even simpler, and has nothing to do with India. "West Pakistan" was separated from "East Pakistan" by 1700 kilometres. If "East Pakistan" wanted Independence, nothing would have stopped it, period. Even if India didn't exist, it would've happened. And even in the 1971 war, India won nothing in its Western Sector.
Simple, easy answer:
While I'm fairly annoyed with Indian nationalism, I'm even more annoyed with Pakistani nationalism because while they had a great opportunity as being part of the US-bloc during the Cold War, their strategic position has been constantly declining, with the Indian-aided independence movement in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, military losses in various wars with India, and so on.
The only time the Pakistans actually won anything was the original battle for Kashmir, where the Pakistanis were able to maintain 1/3rd of their territory.
Everything else, the Pakistanis, independent of what others might claim, have lost. The weak position of Pakistan has been so significant that China has (and of course there are other reasons) been forced to seek defense treaties with Iran to bail them out, as the Chinese-PcK connection is minimal and rotten as all hell.
===
As for territorial expansion:
Also note that the Nepalese were being pressured by the BJP government to add "Hindu" to their constitution, and generally India's neighbors are wary of the regional power in the area.
===
Likewise, my conjectures are trying to figure out why China would launch a hit. From an Indian nationalist perspective, it's because the Chinese are aggressive jerks. From a Chinese nationalist perspective, it's because the Indians are provocative jerks.
The other theories, including those floated in the Indian media, is that China isn't happy with Modi's move to hedge between China and the United States.
The current conjecture is about China, the useless or destructive nature of Indian nationalism (Indian nationalism is ultra-traditional, whereas Chinese nationalism is progressive in a dialectical materialist sense), and why the Indians are behaving as they are.
The Chinese have no obligation to disabuse the Indians of their nationalist delusions, but in the name of future Indo-Chinese relations as well as India's place in the world, I think it would be helpful for the Chinese to punch the Indians in the face until they drop their goddamn delusions. The first-generation aggressive nationalist mentality characteristic of pre-industrial societies has to go.
I'm not saying it's "why" they're doing it, but I'm saying it's why they SHOULD do it. The Congress operatives I've been talking to have been admitting that hedging China via the United States is not a viable policy in the long-run because post-Coronavirus, it's obvious that the United States is in decline. Trying to align with the United States to fight China is a fool's errand, as they've acknowledged.
This suggests that it might be possible to make contacts with Congress, even though Congress is the more truculent of the Indian political parties at present. The benefit to China would be that there could be negotiations with Congress that should the Indians lose the war, the BJP get deposed from power, Congress makes concessions to the Chinese (BRI, slowly deescalating the boycotts regime) as well as attempt to call off sanctions against China, because China can now depose the Congress government likewise by joining in on the calls of treason.
Last edited: