Ladakh Flash Point

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Captain
I doubt that, but let's see...



Fail.

Your original 'strategic calculus' was that China hit Ladakh to protect Modi from the coronavirus. And this new 'calculus' is still just as wrong. I could give you a whole lecture on Indian history and the insecure 'basis' of its nationalism, but it will be wasted on you.

What concerns me is the following, and it's the only reason I bothered replying:



Instead of attempting 'strategic calculus' maybe first learn basic arithmetic. Sum up all the land that Pakistan has captured from India and vice versa. Pakistan has liberated 1/3rd of Kashmir, which India has never been able to recover. The only land India has ever been able to capture aggressively from Pakistan is parts of the Siachin Glacier, and even that operation they screwed up and gained nothing from it.

As for Bangladesh, the math is even simpler, and has nothing to do with India. "West Pakistan" was separated from "East Pakistan" by 1700 kilometres. If "East Pakistan" wanted Independence, nothing would have stopped it, period. Even if India didn't exist, it would've happened. And even in the 1971 war, India won nothing in its Western Sector.

Simple, easy answer:

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While I'm fairly annoyed with Indian nationalism, I'm even more annoyed with Pakistani nationalism because while they had a great opportunity as being part of the US-bloc during the Cold War, their strategic position has been constantly declining, with the Indian-aided independence movement in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, military losses in various wars with India, and so on.

The only time the Pakistans actually won anything was the original battle for Kashmir, where the Pakistanis were able to maintain 1/3rd of their territory.

Everything else, the Pakistanis, independent of what others might claim, have lost. The weak position of Pakistan has been so significant that China has (and of course there are other reasons) been forced to seek defense treaties with Iran to bail them out, as the Chinese-PcK connection is minimal and rotten as all hell.

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As for territorial expansion:


Also note that the Nepalese were being pressured by the BJP government to add "Hindu" to their constitution, and generally India's neighbors are wary of the regional power in the area.

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Likewise, my conjectures are trying to figure out why China would launch a hit. From an Indian nationalist perspective, it's because the Chinese are aggressive jerks. From a Chinese nationalist perspective, it's because the Indians are provocative jerks.

The other theories, including those floated in the Indian media, is that China isn't happy with Modi's move to hedge between China and the United States.

The current conjecture is about China, the useless or destructive nature of Indian nationalism (Indian nationalism is ultra-traditional, whereas Chinese nationalism is progressive in a dialectical materialist sense), and why the Indians are behaving as they are.

The Chinese have no obligation to disabuse the Indians of their nationalist delusions, but in the name of future Indo-Chinese relations as well as India's place in the world, I think it would be helpful for the Chinese to punch the Indians in the face until they drop their goddamn delusions. The first-generation aggressive nationalist mentality characteristic of pre-industrial societies has to go.

I'm not saying it's "why" they're doing it, but I'm saying it's why they SHOULD do it. The Congress operatives I've been talking to have been admitting that hedging China via the United States is not a viable policy in the long-run because post-Coronavirus, it's obvious that the United States is in decline. Trying to align with the United States to fight China is a fool's errand, as they've acknowledged.

This suggests that it might be possible to make contacts with Congress, even though Congress is the more truculent of the Indian political parties at present. The benefit to China would be that there could be negotiations with Congress that should the Indians lose the war, the BJP get deposed from power, Congress makes concessions to the Chinese (BRI, slowly deescalating the boycotts regime) as well as attempt to call off sanctions against China, because China can now depose the Congress government likewise by joining in on the calls of treason.
 
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Mohsin77

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Simple, easy answer:

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Did you actually just quote Wikipedia as an authority? And some random Indian amateur youtube channel?

Is this also where you got your intel that 'China attacked Ladakh to rescue Modi from the coronavirus' ? Why are you not defending that statement anymore? Are you hoping I'm going to forget that you said that? Because I'm not.... I'm gonna keep reminding you of that 'strategic calculus' of yours, forever.

I'm fairly convinced now that Plawolf was right and you are a hidden Indian troll... So don't expect me to take you seriously by responding to your long, pointless, and ridiculously incorrect points. I'm just going to have fun, by making fun of you.
 

Brumby

Major
Why Pakistan’s Entire Fleet Of F-16s, JF-17s Is At High-Risk With The Arrival Of Rafale Jets?
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@Mohsin77
In a Ladakh escalation the possibility of Pakistan being drawn is always ever present. How is the PAF planning to deal with the Rafale threat? IMO, the most sensible thing to do is to upgrade the ECM capabilities especially in the Block 3 release of the JF-17. This would be a much better bang for buck than the IRST option.

What is happening in that front?
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
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Why Pakistan’s Entire Fleet Of F-16s, JF-17s Is At High-Risk With The Arrival Of Rafale Jets?
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I'm a little confused by this publication Brumby. I just went to its front page and this is the article I saw:

"No Buyers For Rafale Jets: Why Almost Every Country Dumped French Rafales Except India?"
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But a few days ago, they released the other article which you quoted, which makes it seem as if Pakistan should just surrender now, because India has 36 Rafales... I don't know which POV to respond to lolz. They should make up their own mind first.

@Mohsin77
In a Ladakh escalation the possibility of Pakistan being drawn is always ever present. How is the PAF planning to deal with the Rafale threat? IMO, the most sensible thing to do is to upgrade the ECM capabilities especially in the Block 3 release of the JF-17. This would be a much better bang for buck than the IRST option.

What is happening in that front?

Okay, so the following info isn't confirmed, so please take it with a huge grain of salt: I asked a contact of mine in the PAF about the rumors of the J-10C, just earlier today. He told me that there is something is actually brewing on this front. He was very clear that nothing is confirmed yet, but they are looking at the J-10C. Hopefully, they can get it done and finally acquire a couple of squadrons.

And I agree that capabilities of the JF-17 Block III do need a boost. Obviously, the ECM side will remain highly classified and we will know nothing about it. I also agree that IRST can be ignored... What should be pushed now is PL-15 integration. With the Rafale entering the theater with Meteors, PL-15s have practically become a necessity now, either on the Block III or the J-10C, or both.
 

Inst

Captain
Did you actually just quote Wikipedia as an authority? And some random Indian amateur youtube channel?

Is this also where you got your intel that 'China attacked Ladakh to rescue Modi from the coronavirus' ? Why are you not defending that statement anymore? Are you hoping I'm going to forget that you said that? Because I'm not.... I'm gonna keep reminding you of that 'strategic calculus' of yours, forever.

I'm fairly convinced now that Plawolf was right and you are a hidden Indian troll... So don't expect me to take you seriously by responding to your long, pointless, and ridiculously incorrect points. I'm just going to have fun, by making fun of you.

Do you really think I'm embarrassed about conjecturing that the PLA hit was an attempt to rescue Modi from the coronavirus?

Put another way, the present situation is that everything is a negotiation. Modi has been presented options; i.e, he can scale down the nationalist response and give concessions to China, after which China will leave him be. On the other hand, if he doesn't scale things down, it's possible that things will escalate, and there's elements in the Indian body politic that WANT things to escalate simply to saddlebag Modi with a military defeat.

So as we can see, there's a bunch of options available to China after launching the hit. First, it can protect its ally Narendra Modi with this whole wag the dog scenario. Second, it presents India with a negotiation from which China can hopefully get what it wants. Third, it presents China with the prospect of regime change against a recalcitrant power.

Most geopolitical moves IRL are not uni-dimensional; i.e, a smart IRL geopolitical move usually resembles a smart chess move insofar as it achieves multiple objectives and presents multiple opportunities.

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But there is still a primary problem. India doesn't want to join BRI, China wants India to join BRI. This is a hint to India that maybe it should get with the program, or China will use the Iran-Pakistan-China axis to contain India.

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And if you're calling me an Indian troll, that explains your entire set of politics, i.e, you're a Pakistani nationalist that has the same delusional attitude toward India that the Indians have toward China. You want Kashmir back, when, let's face it, the Indians have been beating the crap out of Pakistan since the initial Kashmir war and unless the Chinese do it for you, you're stuck.
 

Inst

Captain
Why Pakistan’s Entire Fleet Of F-16s, JF-17s Is At High-Risk With The Arrival Of Rafale Jets?
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@Mohsin77
In a Ladakh escalation the possibility of Pakistan being drawn is always ever present. How is the PAF planning to deal with the Rafale threat? IMO, the most sensible thing to do is to upgrade the ECM capabilities especially in the Block 3 release of the JF-17. This would be a much better bang for buck than the IRST option.

What is happening in that front?

JF-17, given its aircraft class, is not really equipped to deal with Rafale, given that it has a Rafale-like radar aperture (radar effectiveness is a function of size and technology).

The J-10s, likewise, would be hard-pressed against the Rafale unless the J-10C is upgraded to J-10D, given the maneuverability advantages of the Rafale, its ECM package, and its LO-level stealth.

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As to Pakistan surrendering to India; this is more like a show of the relative Pakistani strategic decline and India's regional hegemonic intent. But it's a fact that the Pakistanis are either nuking or stuck ghost-dancing against India in the event of a massive Indian land incursion into the Sindh.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
Do you really think I'm embarrassed about conjecturing that the PLA hit was an attempt to rescue Modi from the coronavirus?

I know you're embarrassed, 100%

And I'm going to make you keep repeating this precious gem, over and over again.

I think it perfectly exemplifies your entire 'strategic calculus'

p.s. I didn't actually bother reading the rest of your post... (this is how I deal with trolls)
 
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