Ladakh Flash Point

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plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
ougoah said:
Fair enough point. Still would be personally disappointed if CCP withdraws from PP14/15 and Finger 4 because even in your own presentation of the motivations, the CCP is in every right to continue responding to India's aggression. The Indians have "retaliated" with trade war and solidarity against China. If your version of 1. India got aggressive 2. China responded 3. India ceases aggression 4. China ceases aggression and moves back 5. India creates a huge narrative of evil China and ban this and that etc don't buy from China, meanwhile we've seen no Chinese response to this. China is at a net loss, that's summed as three Indian provocations and 2 Chinese responses. And if withdrawal happened/happens, then China's got nothing to show for it while the end result of all this may be return to status quo with India's initial aggression checked, but India has ended up with unified determination to work against China and increase cooperation with the west.
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I’m sorry, but that is a really pointless way to look at the situation, and is too petty and short sighted to appeal to Chinese leaders and strategists.

Rather than do simple score keeping, one should always keep the big picture in mind.

While India might be keen to penny pinch, and make any tiny territorial ‘gain’ it possibly can on the board, China really doesn’t care too much about snatching meaningless bits of land.

Part of that is strategic (China wants, above all else, peace and stability on its boarders, and making silly little land grabs would only trigger the Indians to keep coming back looking for trouble, which China doesn’t want); part of it is tactical (Chinese military advantage is so overwhelming that it doesn’t really care too much about small geographical advantages at the starting point. If a shooting war really breaks out, the PLA can take any and all Indian positions almost at will, so having ever so slightly better starting position really doesn’t mean anything to the PLA); and part of it is just practical. (See that sharp bend in the river? That is a flood risk area. The sharper a river bends, the more it is slowed at that point, and thus the more that area will flood if there is any increase in water volume. I really don’t think anyone will want to be in that area come spring when melt water starts to peak).

Chinese economic dominance over India is even more overwhelming than its military, so if China really wanted to retaliate against the silly India App bans, it has plenty of economic options without needing to apply military pressure.

As for reputational damage, well you are really overestimating the impact of the Indian press. They are too trash even for the western MSM to quote much, and all the China bashing really is only useful for internal consumption, and China really couldn’t care less about Indian hot air.
 
Nobonita Barua

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
plawolf said:
While India might be keen to penny pinch, and make any tiny territorial ‘gain’ it possibly can on the board, China really doesn’t care too much about snatching meaningless bits of land.
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That's a gigantic price for whatever the bigger picture you may have in mind for future.
Concession in diplomatic economic front is one thing, ceding territory for bigger picture? That's hard to believe in any matrix of reality.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Nobonita Barua said:
That's a gigantic price for whatever the bigger picture you may have in mind for future.
Concession in diplomatic economic front is one thing, ceding territory for bigger picture? That's hard to believe in any matrix of reality.
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Whoever said anything about China ceding territory to India? The Chinese position has been consistent that it will not allow India to cease any territory by force, but nor does it care to make meaningless little land grabs itself.

The PLA backing off in no way, shape or reform represents any change in Chinese territorial claims, nor would any such withdrawal be an unilateral move by China alone, and would be a mutual withdrawal by both sides.

The two sides originally agreed on keeping troops some distance from the actual LAC as a means of limiting the number and severity of meaningless clashes between troops. That’s what China wants.

India has been the one inching forwards. They got a big juicy slap by the PLA in response, and are not dismantling all the infrastructure they built and retreating back to where they started from, all that in exchange for the PLA going back to where they wanted to be in the first place. That’s a net win for China.
 
Nobonita Barua

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Whoever said anything about China ceding territory to India? The Chinese position has been consistent that it will not allow India to cease any territory by force, but nor does it care to make meaningless little land grabs itself.

The PLA backing off in no way, shape or reform represents any change in Chinese territorial claims, nor would any such withdrawal be an unilateral move by China alone, and would be a mutual withdrawal by both sides.

The two sides originally agreed on keeping troops some distance from the actual LAC as a means of limiting the number and severity of meaningless clashes between troops. That’s what China wants.

India has been the one inching forwards. They got a big juicy slap by the PLA in response, and are not dismantling all the infrastructure they built and retreating back to where they started from, all that in exchange for the PLA going back to where they wanted to be in the first place. That’s a net win for China.
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Oh, then i misread your " make any tiny territorial ‘gain’ it possibly can on the board" sentence. Thanks for clarifying.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Mohsin77 said:
China will not want to expend too many of its high value munitions against India; however, the assumption that the PLAAF's tactics need to mirror that of the US in Iraq/Syria doesn't make sense to me. I would assume that China's Western Theater Command reserves something like 15-20% of China's missile arsenal for the Indian front. The PLAAF's goal would be to choose the aim points to achieve maximum effect against core C4I nodes and SAM batteries, just enough to enable strike and SEAD/DEAD packages to break through the line, supported by heavy EW and network attacks.
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I would add that high value munitions would also be tasked with runway denial and destroying aircraft on the ground.

For example, India only has 5 large high-value AWACs aircraft which are:
1. difficult to hide and protect due to their size
2. have to spend most of the time on the ground.
3. can be destroyed with a few cluster bomblets due to their large wing area.

That assists with gaining control of the air, and in allowing those follow-on strikes by aircraft or cheaper missiles.

It's the same planning in the Western Pacific.
 
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vesicles

vesicles

Colonel
Inst said:
India can beat China like Pakistan can beat India.

The Chinese have been bashing India repeatedly for not developing their country and focusing on ridiculous nationalistic adventures. But the same is true of Pakistan, and currently per capita Pakistani GDP is less than that of India.
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Another possible explanation is that India is simply incompetent. Anyone who can throw a punch can beat them...
 
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