There are so many mistakes above, but I'll address the major ones which blow away the rest of your analysis.
---
Your assertion that the EU is only an economic power is incorrect.
Active Military Personnel:
Combined EU (1.4 million) versus (0.9 million) Russia
Military Spending:
Combined EU (255 billion USD) versus (65 billion USD) Russia
You can see that the EU is clearly a bigger military power than Russia, even if that spending is inefficient.
So why would the EU need Russia as a military partner?
If Russia and the EU ever get into a long conventional war, Russia is going to lose badly, and Russia knows this.
---
Your assertion that the EU is not technologically competitive is also incorrect.
Have a look at the R&D spending comparison below.
You can see the EU is in the same ballpark as the USA and China.
In comparison, Russia lags behind in R&D spending, both in terms of quantity and *quality*
In summary:
Russia is at a large disadvantage with respect to both China and the EU
It doesn't matter if Russia is dealing with China or the EU.
But Russia is big and self contained enough to play in the middle.
I mean from the first part of your argument, the Indian armed forces is superior to the Chinese armed forces because they have more men under arms than China does.
As for modern equipment, the Germans run roughly 244 LeoA2s. The French have roughly 200 Leclercs. The Russian Army ,in contrast, has roughly 3000 tanks in active service, ranging from T-72s to T-90s.
The Russian Army, also, has about 2000 SPGs in 152mm caliber. The French and German combined have only roughly 400 SPGs. Likewise, when we get to airpower, there's a massive force disparity between the RuAF and various EU states.
The key to EU defense, anyways, isn't the EU member states themselves, but rather NATO. The present force parity and deterrence is guaranteed by the fact that the EU is backed by the United States, which has taken it on as one of their defense obligations. But if you take out the United States, the obvious force replacement is Russia, if the Europeans can get an agreeable modus vivendi.
===
Like I told Brumby, I tend to have a longer perspective than many people, even if I don't blame it on being ethnic Chinese. There are two other key factors, one that I need to further elucidate.
First, the EU has been propping itself up mainly by absorbing former Soviet-bloc states. What they get out of former Soviet-bloc states is that they get a supply of cheap labor and potential for economic growth. But all of these former Soviet states are by themselves, small, and with limited population power. Russia, on the other hand, is large, and would basically be the final step in the EU development project.
Second, you have to remember, that China is a unitary state. You can cajole Fujian vs Anhui or Heilongjiang vs Henan for business purposes, but if it all of a sudden becomes a strategic affair, the CPC central government will crack down hard on you. The European Union, on the other hand, is an alliance of sovereign nations. Moreover, these sovereign nations tend to have limited populations. The most populous nation in the EU is Germany, with 83 million people, and people are already complaining about the EU essentially being German-dominated; or alternately, that the EU is dominated by Germany as an economic power and France as a military power. If you stuff Russia into the EU, though, what's the chances that Russia would end up dominating the EU given a population almost twice as big as Germany's?
That's to say, for Russia, if it were to join the EU, wouldn't be joining as a satellite, but as potentially the first among equals. This is a powerful reason for the EU to deny Russia entrance to it, but a powerful incentive for Russia to join the EU.
===
In truth, I admit that there are many important problems that need to be overcome before Russia joins the European Union. That's why I say it's a long-term event, not a short-term one that can be expected in the next decade or so. But the strategic complementation of Russia and EU is far too great for it not to be an event that should be considered; Russia in the EU would more than double the physical landmass of the European Union, turning the EU from a geopolitical has-been and American satellite into a true pole, one that can successfully compete with the ABCA alliance, the Sinosphere, and the Indosphere.
