Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah said:

Yeah I doubt China wants to aggravate beyond the previous (prior to 2019) status quo. You think China attacked the disputed stretch. I think China responded to increased Indian patrols along the disputed stretch and responded with move of greater conviction to India's salami slicing via patrolling. There is evidence for this because India's own General then said India patrolled more and China continued expressing concern on the increased frequency of India's patrolling. India also started building permanent structures within which to be fair to India should be considered in response to China's building of a road to F5.



How do we define permanent camps? I'm defining China's positions in Aksai Chin as permanent. China's positions within the 20% disputed are temporary. India's positions within the 20% I'm defining as temporary as well since they are simply tents and no Indian permanent structures have been erected since 2021's buffer deals.



Yeah I don't think China will capture and control this area between India's perception and China's 1959 claim. That's a given pretty much. No less than India will capture and control Aksai Chin.

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Any camp which remains in place for the entire year can be considered permanent. India has recently added infrastructure to support permanent stationing of troops


And once again, it was China that patrolled Pangong fingers 4-8 far more than India due to it's superior infrastructure and lack of geographic obstacles. This was confirmed by Colonel S Dinny, who commanded an infantry battalion that patrolled Pangong. His testimony is far more credible than that of a retired General who never set foot on Pangong.

After India's actions in South Pangong, China was forced to accept a buffer zone in the north bank and stop it's increased patrolling.

Abominable said:

Have PLA forces withdrawn recently?

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No idea exactly what forces and how much are where (within the 20% disputed). We know India refuses to sign a complete buffer (since it'll remove them from Aksai Chin access completely). We know that between 2021 buffer deals and well nowish, there have been troop presence from both sides. How much and where is questionable but Indians use any "satellite photos" from random dates to make claims on how much is where and when lol.

Until we get official confirmation from one or both sides on troop presence within, let's assume nothing.

twineedle said:

Any camp which remains in place for the entire year can be considered permanent.

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Okay. So whatever PLA had within the remaining 20% (and if they kept them there) are permanent positions too. Even if it's just a few tents and guys on patrol duty.

We have to agree that this situation is more or less stable and settled now. Chances for violent clashes are minimal. And any confrontation would probably be by design since buffer deals in 2021.

China holds onto Aksai Chin. Remaining 20% disputed is controlled by neither. Both sides do not recognise the other's right to "permanent" positions within this 20% disputed. Of course India also doesn't recognise China's right to control Aksai Chin.

India's patrol frequency compared to 2019 is minimal to none in most of the places India has no positions and certainly non in buffer zones.

China barely patrolled before 2020 and still barely patrols.

So the change from 2019 to 2022 is that India patrolled most of the entire remaining 20% and now it just has a few "permanent positions" within it but two or three buffer zones it's not allowed on and for the rest, minimal patrolling.

If India makes a move on this 20% remaining, situation would be flared up.

Bottom line and result is China has not allowed India to even take control of the 20% remaining, let alone allow India to use control over the 20% to springboard and start patrolling and contesting Aksai Chin (80%). This is three steps behind what Amit Shah, India's home minister wanted to achieve and claimed his India will aim to do.

ougoah said:

No idea exactly what forces and how much are where (within the 20% disputed). We know India refuses to sign a complete buffer (since it'll remove them from Aksai Chin access completely). We know that between 2021 buffer deals and well nowish, there have been troop presence from both sides. How much and where is questionable but Indians use any "satellite photos" from random dates to make claims on how much is where and when lol.

Until we get official confirmation from one or both sides on troop presence within, let's assume nothing.

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I

ougoah said:

Okay. So whatever PLA had within the remaining 20% (and if they kept them there) are permanent positions too. Even if it's just a few tents and guys on patrol duty.

We have to agree that this situation is more or less stable and settled now. Chances for violent clashes are minimal. And any confrontation would probably be by design since buffer deals in 2021.

China holds onto Aksai Chin. Remaining 20% disputed is controlled by neither. Both sides do not recognise the other's right to "permanent" positions within this 20% disputed. Of course India also doesn't recognise China's right to control Aksai Chin.

India's patrol frequency compared to 2019 is minimal to none in most of the places India has no positions and certainly non in buffer zones.

China barely patrolled before 2020 and still barely patrols.

So the change from 2019 to 2022 is that India patrolled most of the entire remaining 20% and now it just has a few "permanent positions" within it but two or three buffer zones it's not allowed on and for the rest, minimal patrolling.

If India makes a move on this 20% remaining, situation would be flared up.

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In areas where India before could only patrol as per the 1993 agreement, India now has permanent camps supported by new infrastructure. China had already built roads in Pangong fingers 4-8 and Gogra well before the standoff.
In most areas, India's patrol frequency is unchanged. The standoff last year occurred at only a few points.

According to Colonel Dinny, China was using it's superior infrastructure and easier geographic access to patrol the disputed areas in Pangong far more than India. Now, after India forced China to accept a buffer, it cannot do that

twineedle said:

I
In areas where India before could only patrol as per the 1993 agreement, India now has permanent camps supported by new infrastructure. China had already built roads in Pangong fingers 4-8 and Gogra well before the standoff

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So basically like where China before could only patrol (and patrolled much less than India), China now has permanent camps supported by permanent infrastructure built before this clash and during.

India used to frequently patrol parts that are now buffers. Okay since India refuses total buffer, the buffers are sort of ineffective because the purpose is to cut India off from Aksai Chin.

Therefore a pseudo stability has been reached. It's a delicate stability because there is no full buffer and India refuses to agree to full buffer so flare up similar to 2020 can happen again since technically while both troops agree on not meeting (in an effort to avoid violent confrontations), they are present in the same disputed land. But PLA's presence means India simply cannot control the 20% which is the next best thing after securing a total buffer out of India which can't be done without India's agreement. One way or another, India isn't getting control of even the 20%.

ougoah said:

So basically like where China before could only patrol (and patrolled much less than India), China now has permanent camps supported by permanent infrastructure built before this clash and during.

India used to frequently patrol parts that are now buffers. Okay since India refuses total buffer, the buffers are sort of ineffective because the purpose is to cut India off from Aksai Chin.

Therefore a pseudo stability has been reached. It's a delicate stability because there is no full buffer and India refuses to agree to full buffer so flare up similar to 2020 can happen again since technically while both troops agree on not meeting (in an effort to avoid violent confrontations), they are present in the same disputed land. But PLA's presence means India simply cannot control the 20% which is the next best thing after securing a total buffer out of India which can't be done without India's agreement. One way or another, India isn't getting control of even the 20%.

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Once again, with the exception of Pangong tso, the buffers are only a few kilometers. Otherwise, India's patrolling activity is unhindered. The buffers also mean that in several strategic places like the Gogra bulge, China cannot use the road networks it has built over the past decades to gain an advantage over India in patrolling like it had earlier. As a result of these road networks combined with geographic advantages, China was actually patrolling far more than India. Colonel Dinny clarified all of this.

Also like I said earlier, most of the remaining dispute is on India's side of the Colombo line, so India controls more of it.

twineedle said:

Once again, with the exception of Pangong tso, the buffers are only a few kilometers. Otherwise, India's patrolling activity is unhindered.

Also like I said earlier, most of the remaining dispute is on India's side of the Colombo line.

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This 20% remaining stretch is also only a few kilometers wide (but considerably longer, vertically).

true. This is indeed beyond Aksai Chin and China's already won this legacy conflict after 1962. We're all arguing over crumbs and this confrontation back in 2020 is a confrontation over the remaining crumbs... which China does not wish to hand over to India - allowing India to control the entirety of this remaining 20%. Otherwise the Chinese would not have sent PLA with so much conviction and without salami slicing about, simply pushed India out if they were anywhere within this stretch and settle down. That was until India signed buffer agreements.

To what I can tell from the perspective we're able to gather on this, China erred in not demanding full and total buffer in exchange for PLA disengagement/withdrawal. That was the one card and piece of major leverage China could use to get India to finally seal Aksai Chin off from Indian access. But to a strategic pov, any total buffer agreement by India could also be broken. If India attacks Aksai Chin, it would break any deal anyway since that move would essentially undo pretty much everything as an attack on Aksai Chin is beyond this 20% buffer. There are no guarantees in war and no agreement will stop India from violating buffer if India is committed to war. So I suppose a total buffer agreement is really only useful in maintaining a distance during peacetime. Nothing more than that.

ougoah said:

No idea exactly what forces and how much are where (within the 20% disputed). We know India refuses to sign a complete buffer (since it'll remove them from Aksai Chin access completely). We know that between 2021 buffer deals and well nowish, there have been troop presence from both sides. How much and where is questionable but Indians use any "satellite photos" from random dates to make claims on how much is where and when lol.

Until we get official confirmation from one or both sides on troop presence within, let's assume nothing.

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I imagine that's what's happened. Leave a Chinese flag on the most forward point and withdraw.

Indians claim that because the Chinese aren't there anymore the LAC hasn't changed. They call it their "perception of the LAC" whatever that means.

I think it's good to deescalate the Galwan border. America will have a pretty nice sanction surprise soon for India I'm sure and it won't be long until they are completely isolated.

Abominable said:

I imagine that's what's happened. Leave a Chinese flag on the most forward point and withdraw.

Indians claim that because the Chinese aren't there anymore the LAC hasn't changed. They call it their "perception of the LAC" whatever that means.

I think it's good to deescalate the Galwan border. America will have a pretty nice sanction surprise soon for India I'm sure and it won't be long until they are completely isolated.

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You have been saying that for months now and nothing has happened.

And no, the LAC stil remains the same as it has been since 1962, though differences in perception by both sides at certain areas remain.

twineedle said:

You have been saying that for months now and nothing has happened.

And no, the LAC stil remains the same as it has been since 1962, though differences in perception by both sides at certain areas remain.

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And the perception says that Akchai Chin is Chinese territory.
Wonder what that fat baldy was saying in your parlor...i mean parliament .