JF-17 Thunder / FC-1 News, Discussion & Media

Diving Falcon

Junior Member
Re: JF-17: New Pics

On the other hand, if PAC does produce JF-17s for export - CAC/CATIC gets 50% of PAC's profits; JF-17's production will likely go on for a long time. So even after the PAF's requirements are filled - production will continue for other customers. Pakistan has paid 50% of the development costs, it was partially also because of Pakistan that the JF-17 project continued (PLAAF would not buy?); no matter how you look at it, the 50% of development funds that helped JF-17 get on its feet belong to Pakistan. Thus Pakistan is entitled to profit - as to whether its 50%, 30% or even 10% is debatable.
 
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skyhawk2005

Banned Idiot
Re: JF-17: New Pics

Diving Falcon said:
On the other hand, if PAC does produce JF-17s for export - CAC/CATIC gets 50% of PAC's profits; JF-17's production will likely go on for a long time. So even after the PAF's requirements are filled - production will continue for other customers.

PAF's needs will likely continue long after the initial 150 are produced. PAF will be hardpressed to build 150 JF17s in 10 years. I really don't think PAF has the excess manufacturing capacity to also build JF17s for export. China on the other hand, has vast manufacturing capability, and it will be building at least 2 lines for exporting this plane. It is speculated that the orders for this plane may reach 1000.

Besides, PAF cannot manufacture the JF17 100%. Maybe some parts of the frame, but not the avionics, or engine. I seriously doubt China would handover the technology for WS13A or it's SD-10 missiles and firecontrol software. And even if it did, I doubt Pakistan is capable of building it.

I still think the details of this arrangement between PAC and CAC is not fully understood by the public.

I speculate that the agreement is, in the event that Pakistan and China have an export order that can be shared by the two parties, then profits will be 50/50 because the work will be divided by the two countries equally. Or perhaps Pakistan would receive some sort of percentage for marketing efforts, especially to muslim countries. But I doubt it is 50/50.

Aside from this, CAC does not have to give any profit in export orders it itself has gained. I don't think PAC has any intellectual owership of the FC1/JF17. The ownership of the intellectual rights are retained by CAC. It was afterall designed by CAC, not PAC. The FC1 is mainly for Export. It is a plane designed to earn income and revenue for CAC. I still don't understand or believe that CAC would hand over 50% of it's profits for all and any export orders. IF that were the case, PAC and CAC would be one company, each country owning 50% share, but there was no such merger or formation. PAC and CAC are separate and distinct entities.

And it is likely that the JF17/FC1 will be gradually improved in blocks A, B, C, D+ over its' lifetime. These improvements would be developed by CAC, not PAC. I doubt PAC has the technical knowledge to improve the JF17.

I think for Pakistan, the JF17 experience is limited to as the basis for forming the country's aeronautical foundations. Pakistan will definitely learn much from this project, but it will take them years and years to become self-sufficient.

China on the other hand, is interested mainly in exporting this plane, CAC in particular. And it makes absolutely no sense that it would hand over 50% of it's profits from export sales.

Plus, I have never read this in any article. I think this is widely misunderstood or assumed when it is not.
 

pshamim

New Member
VIP Professional
Re: JF-17: New Pics

skyhawk2005 said:
I keep having to repeat myself with you. You claim to be an insider. Fine, but you do realize that on the internet, anyone can claim to be anything. I'm not doubting you, but that is not the point.

All I ask is a few articles or links that verify your claims, and then I might be more open to believing you. Until then, you've only provided your opinions, which is not evidence or proof.

Tell me this. How is Pakistan supposed to manufacture JF17's for export? Will they not be busy manufacturing JF17s for their own use?

IF you claim to be an insider, answer this question.

Skyhawk, My 40 years of experience as a fighter pilot and being a part of the defence industry is not based on reading articles and the internet. It is based on my service with PAF, my contacts within it, and the vast defence industry experience here in US.

I enjoy coming to this forum to learn some more and not engage in highly opinionated contentions which, I know now, are totally based on reading articles.

I would rather engage in an intelligent discussions where every one learns something and not with someone whose complete knowledge base is internet based.

Continuing with this issue I feel is a waste of time and bandwith. I will rather stay away from responding some of these immature postings.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Re: JF-17: New Pics

my view on this matter is this:
- CAC and china has long looked at this project as a business rather than security venture. meaning, it has no requirement for this fighter and its sole goal is to make as many sales as possible
- if you ever visited any Chinese forum, you would realize that most Chinese people look at this as just a great export opportunity
- i would expect any export contracts to be broken down to the following: any of the broken down costs for the different parts of the jf-17 will go to the contractor. so, if cac is getting the rights to produce and assemble the airframe, it will get the share for that. another company will get the engine contract and so forth. if pac is getting the order to produce the airframe, it will get paid for that. if there is any additional profit on top of that, that may be shared. there is also other stuff like servicing and such. i would expect most of the islamic countries to ask pakistan to do the servicing, that's where pakistan will get quite a lot of money. anyhow, kind of like the eurofighter consortium - each contractor gets their share. The country that sells the typhoon get whatever is in excess.
- so, if a pakistani jf-17 has parts made in china, it will obviously also have to pay the respective chinese company for that. and vice versa
- anyhow, for a better idea of how jf-17 will pan out, take a look at k-8 and remember, pakistan did a lot more design in that project. how much profit sharing do you think hongdu is doing?
 

asaracen

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Re: JF-17: New Pics

pshamim said:
Skyhawk, My 40 years of experience as a fighter pilot and being a part of the defence industry is not based on reading articles and the internet. It is based on my service with PAF, my contacts within it, and the vast defence industry experience here in US.

I enjoy coming to this forum to learn some more and not engage in highly opinionated contentions which, I know now, are totally based on reading articles.

I would rather engage in an intelligent discussions where every one learns something and not with someone whose complete knowledge base is internet based.

Continuing with this issue I feel is a waste of time and bandwith. I will rather stay away from responding some of these immature postings.
With due respect to pshamim's vast professional experience (I have found most of his posts to be of great and accurate sources of knowledge) as well as his insider knowledge (that is clearly demonstrated in his posts) I feel that adding my tuppences worth might still be in order.

Firstly, aircraft manufacturing is pretty complex business, and joint development and production contracts could be quite complex legal documents, that even an experienced lawyer would take a while to unravel. Since we do not have access to the actual contract, all we can do is to either speculate, go by insider knowledge as pshamim claims to have, OR try to look at CAC /PAC agreement under the light of contemporary collaborative practices in Europe. CAC/PAC deal is not something new, most of the modern European defence projects (except French) are collaborative efforts.

All joint development / production agreements would have at least 4 essential elements:

1) Sharing of development costs. We know PAC /CAC have shared these costs 50:50. These costs are amortised over a long period and spread over the sale of hundreds of aircraft. Therefore, upto breakeven figure, both parties will be reimbursed (the relevant R&D element of the sale price) equally from the sale of each aircraft.
2) usually the contract stipulates the exact parts each partner would manufacture, and this ultimately is translated into the production percentage. If we accept that PAC/CAC are truly 50:50 partners in the whole project (and not just for sharing the development costs & hence ownership of IPR) then we should see PAC eventually producing at least 50% of JF-17 parts. However, we know from published statements that PAC will initially assemble and start off by manufacturing small number of parts BUT ultimately this percentage will increase - may be to 70 - 80% ?? This is where it differs from most European patnerships, where the exact a/c parts and production shares are distributed, according to their percentage ownership in the project (Britain's at 38% is the biggest share holder in Eurofighter). This indicates that Pakistan and China will be free to manufacture the planes in parallel. Pakistan will only be limited to what it can produce. Therefore, I would say that in fulfilling an internal (for PAF\PLAF) or an external export order, CAC\PAC would be treated as subcontractors to the consortium that sells these planes. Each subcontractor should charge for the components supplied to the selling \ assembling consortium at an agreed and regularly reviewed price, which would surely have an element of profit for the part manufacturing subcontractor.
3) the imported engine and other parts would obviously be added to the make up of price.
4) finally an overall profit element would be added.

Hence sales price for each a\c should have the following element:

i) R&D element - each partner to be disimbursed equally

ii) Cost for parts used in the final assembly should go to the supplying partner at an agreed price list (this cost would obviously include a profit element for the supplying factory)

iii) the cost of final assembly (again each factory may assemble a\c against an agreed price, containing a profit element for the assembling factory)

iv) Cost of sales / sales commission: if joint marketing venture then both would be shared, otherwise, the party that puts in the effort and money into the sales should receive the (probably pre agreed) commission element.

once the above costs are aggregated (and probably a couple of others like intermediary agents commission / may be bribing an official!!) we should get THE cost price for a JF-17. Add to this your profit element and you have sales price. I personally believe it would be this final profit element (plus R&D costs) that will be shared 50:50 between PAC\CAC, if they indeed have true 50:50 partnership in the whole project.

My apologies for the length - as you can see - precise / concise writing is not one of my strong points!!
 

pshamim

New Member
VIP Professional
Re: JF-17: New Pics

Mr. Asaracen, That was a good job done. It is quite close to the reality. Partners will be paid for what they contribute, be it parts or labour. It is the net profit that will be shared equally.

I also think that China and Pakistan may also set up a joint Marketing organization.
 

skyhawk2005

Banned Idiot
Re: JF-17: New Pics

pshamim said:
Mr. Asaracen, That was a good job done. It is quite close to the reality. Partners will be paid for what they contribute, be it parts or labour. It is the net profit that will be shared equally.

I also think that China and Pakistan may also set up a joint Marketing organization.


So to say profits will be shared 50/50 is very misleading because it implies 50/50 divison of revenue also. Ultimately, net profit is nominal. There might not be a net profit, in some cases, it could be a loss. So in the end, share of net profit doesn't translate to 50/50 of labor, or revenue.

I think we can say the following is true:

Pakistan's 150 JF17 requirement will be produced by CAC and PAC but initially, it will be done by CAC. As PAC gains skills, her contribution will steadily increase up to some high %, maybe 50% or higher.

Net profit of Export JF17s will be shared but this doesn't mean 50/50 share of revenue because it is dependent on the % of work each party contributes. Since PAC will be busy making it's own JF17s, PAC's contribution will be low if any on any export JF17s.

CAC stands to earn most of export revenue from this JF17/FC1 project because that is the original goal of the FC1, to export this thing, and generate revenues for CAC which needs infusion of cash to fund future projects.

PAC goal is to develop some domestic manufacturing experience and also become more independent for it's fighter needs, shying away from US dependence and it's political strings. Pakistan would also in essence, "own" the JF17 as it's own domestic fighter. As Pakistan's skills grow, it may one day develop the airframe 100% on it's own. This most likely won't include the engine, or avionics. Pakistan would still have to import either Western or other parts for this. For China, giving the JF17 to Pakistan serves her own purpose because she needs Pakistan to be well armed to defend against Indian aggression. For China, it was important to balance India's LCA project with the JF17 for Pakistan. China will also arm Pakistan with future sales of J10 and/or J11 to further balance the power between India and Pakistan. China doesn't mind giving away the JF17 to Pakistan because her main fighters will be J10, J11, and JXX.

I think this arrangement makes more sense.

It would be grossly unfair if PAC shared 50% of revenue, which was my initial understanding.
 
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asaracen

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Re: JF-17: New Pics

skyhawk2005 said:
So to say profits will be shared 50/50 is very misleading because it implies 50/50 divison of revenue also. Ultimately, net profit is nominal. There might not be a net profit, in some cases, it could be a loss. So in the end, share of net profit doesn't translate to 50/50 of labor, or revenue.

I think we can say the following is true:

Pakistan's 150 JF17 requirement will be produced by CAC and PAC but initially, it will be done by CAC. As PAC gains skills, her contribution will steadily increase up to some high %, maybe 50% or higher.

Net profit of Export JF17s will be shared but this doesn't mean 50/50 share of revenue because it is dependent on the % of work each party contributes. Since PAC will be busy making it's own JF17s, PAC's contribution will be low if any on any export JF17s.

CAC stands to earn most of export revenue from this JF17/FC1 project because that is the original goal of the FC1, to export this thing, and generate revenues for CAC which needs infusion of cash to fund future projects.

PAC goal is to develop some domestic manufacturing experience and also become more independent for it's fighter needs, shying away from US dependence and it's political strings. Pakistan would also in essence, "own" the JF17 as it's own domestic fighter. As Pakistan's skills grow, it may one day develop the airframe 100% on it's own. This most likely won't include the engine, or avionics. Pakistan would still have to import either Western or other parts for this. For China, giving the JF17 to Pakistan serves her own purpose because she needs Pakistan to be well armed to defend against Indian aggression. For China, it was important to balance India's LCA project with the JF17 for Pakistan. China will also arm Pakistan with future sales of J10 and/or J11 to further balance the power between India and Pakistan. China doesn't mind giving away the JF17 to Pakistan because her main fighters will be J10, J11, and JXX.

I think this arrangement makes more sense.

It would be grossly unfair if PAC shared 50% of revenue, which was my initial understanding.
Skyhawk please read my (and pshamim's) previous posts again - this time carefully. I think most of your hypothetical questions have already been answered, so there is no point in further debate....... I am beginning to understand pshamim's frustration now.
 

skyhawk2005

Banned Idiot
Re: JF-17: New Pics

asaracen said:
Skyhawk please read my (and pshamim's) previous posts again - this time carefully. I think most of your hypothetical questions have already been answered, so there is no point in further debate....... I am beginning to understand pshamim's frustration now.


hmm..and I am beginning to think that pshamim and you are the same person. Why do I say this? Because you earlier stated pshamin had written many things that prove his insider knowledge. However, doing a search on pshamim's post proved otherwise. All of pshamim's posts were short, and demonstrated no knowledge.

Fess up. You and him are the same, right?
 

Diving Falcon

Junior Member
Re: JF-17: New Pics

skyhawk2005 said:
hmm..and I am beginning to think that pshamim and you are the same person. Why do I say this? Because you earlier stated pshamin had written many things that prove his insider knowledge. However, doing a search on pshamim's post proved otherwise. All of pshamim's posts were short, and demonstrated no knowledge.

Fess up. You and him are the same, right?
Through that logic you could say I'm also pshamim, because I have been on the many forums pshamim posts on and seen that his own news reports come true. He was the first to say that the PAF will buy 75 new Block-52s - while others were assuming it will buy 24 new and some 50 used; by July of 2005 PAF confirmed that it wants to buy 75 new models. Again it was now pshamim who told us that the J-10 was chosen by PAF as its Plus One while people still thought the competition was going! We knew PAF was chose J-10 as far back as December - only recently did the cabinet officially approve it.

Ask the moderators for everyone's IPs, even their locations (around the world) - I don't think becoming desperate and changing the topic will help!
 
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