J-XX Fighter Aircraft

Totoro said:

True, technological advances will get smaller, but at the same time, tried and tested technologies of j10 and j11b will get easier to implement. Coupled with bigger procurement budgets, the bottleneck of long introduction of a new fighter will somewhat be compensated with large production of current fighter types. PLAAFs strength as a whole will therefore keep increasing.

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But the thing is, when the PLAAF finally completely replaced their J-7s and J-8s with J-10 and J-11s, many countries surrounding China such as Japan and India will start to equip F-22 and F-35s. And in terms of relative air force power, the capability of PLAAF will be pushed back to a situation just like the 1980s when PLAAF just started equipping J-8s, all the neighboring countries were putting F-15s and Su-27s into their inventory. It is seems like PLAAF will be always one step behind the regional air force modernization in Asia.

kw64 said:

But the thing is, when the PLAAF finally completely replaced their J-7s and J-8s with J-10 and J-11s, many countries surrounding China such as Japan and India will start to equip F-22 and F-35s. And in terms of relative air force power, the capability of PLAAF will be pushed back to a situation just like the 1980s when PLAAF just started equipping J-8s, all the neighboring countries were putting F-15s and Su-27s into their inventory. It is seems like PLAAF will be always one step behind the regional air force modernization in Asia.

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I disagree with you on these issues:
1. Currently, India and Japan are NOT buying F-22s and F-35s, nor do they have 100% clearance from the US to do so. India may buy Russian advanced fighter jets.
2. According to current estimates, India and Japan will still use F-16s and F-15s up to 2020. Even America will still use F-16s and F-15s up to 2020.
3. The US can currently afford ~200 F-22s, so how many F-22s can other nations afford? This is assuming the US sells F-22 to other nations, but the US currently says "no."
4. The US will START introducing the F-35 by 2016.
5. China's J-10s and J-11s are probably a fair match against America's F-16s and F-15s, and possibly better in the the air superiority role.
6. China does have anti-stealth technology according to China, and China is improving it. We lack details on this stuff.
7. China is working on new fighter jets, and its reasonable to expect China to make a new fighter jet by 2016.
8. Fighter jets are not the only weapons in a modern air force. Command centers, electronic warfare, reconnaissance, UAVs, refueling, and other air weapons are very important, and so are SAMs, satellites, and other weapons for joint operations. America, EU, Russia, and China have the best independent military industries. Every other nation greatly depends on America, EU, and Russia for their military industries. China still depends on these 3 nations, but China is quickly becoming more and more independent, and China is working on asymmetrical warfare.

Look how much China's military has improved over the years:
1950s: China had a small, weak air force and navy. China's land force were poorly equipped, but very large and superbly trained. China was dependent on Russia for most of its military technology.
1980s: China had a large, outdated air force and navy. China's land force were better equipped, still very large, and still performed well. China's military industry becomes more independent.
1990s to 2007: China starts changing its air force into a good quality, medium-sized force. China's navy is turning into a very good quality, medium-sized force. China's land force have very good equipment, large (but not as large as before), and its tough to judge their training because China has not been in any major combat. China's military industry only lacks resources for research and production and the most advanced technology when compared to America, the EU, and Russia.

It is tough to judge China's command systems, reconnaissance systems, space systems, asymmetrical weapons, and nuclear abilities because China is very secretive about this stuff, like all other nations.

I think China has been closing the gap between China's military capabilities and the leading nations' military capabilities.

KW64, although I don't agree with Roger's optimistic view, I don't share your pessmistic view either.

You think China can not come up with something like F22 before 2050? Can you explain a bit more?

China's next gen engine (similar to F22's engine) has finished core engine stage, do you think it will take 40+ years to finish the next 2 stages?

China's ariborne AESA radars have been around for quite a few years now. Fither jet AESA radar is currently in the advanced testing stage. It does not need 40+ years to mature. I am willing to bet that it will show up in 2010.

Frankly speaking, if no major problems occur, China will get her stealth fighter roughly around the same time. Japan and Russia may get their 5th gen fighter after 2015, for China and India, in my view, will get JXX after 2018. And I don't see any other neighbouring countries to get stealth aircrafts before that.

Let's not go from one extreme to another extreme

China was once a dirt poor country that spent very little money on the PLAAF. Today, the Chinese military gets about 3-4% of the Chinese GDP in funding. The Chinese GDP is currently only ~40% of the US GDP, but growing at 12% per year!

Chinese GDP should equal the US by 2013-2016. And it will be able to spend at a comparable level. By that time, any gap between the US military and the Chinese will be minuscule

Roger604 said:

China was once a dirt poor country that spent very little money on the PLAAF. Today, the Chinese military gets about 3-4% of the Chinese GDP in funding. The Chinese GDP is currently only ~40% of the US GDP, but growing at 12% per year!

Chinese GDP should equal the US by 2013-2016. And it will be able to spend at a comparable level. By that time, any gap between the US military and the Chinese will be minuscule

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Sorry Roger, Even if (a big if) China's GDP reaches US's level around 2016, the money poured into defense technology still needs to time to grow into mature products. Military R&D does not work like a coke machine, you put one dollar in and you get a can of coke straight away. Not that easy

Roger604 said:

China was once a dirt poor country that spent very little money on the PLAAF. Today, the Chinese military gets about 3-4% of the Chinese GDP in funding. The Chinese GDP is currently only ~40% of the US GDP, but growing at 12% per year!

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2,668,071/13,201,819 != 40% (World Bank figures 2006)

Chinese GDP should equal the US by 2013-2016. And it will be able to spend at a comparable level. By that time, any gap between the US military and the Chinese will be minuscule

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Let's say China continues to grow at 10-12%, the US at 2-3%, there is no way China will equal America's economic output before 2020, even if you inflate China's GDP by a bit to account for its allegedly undervalued currency.

And as zyun said, after reaching economic parity, it will take a few decades to catch up militarily--China is not going to have a dozen carrier strike groups by 2020!

Hum the question no one is asking! are those photo even real?
it's not hard to sit down with photoshop to doctor those up real quick.

as for the the original question. i don't think we'll be seeing
J-XX anytime soon. i say 2020 even a optimstic date.
also in these days (AVIONIC) is what really matters. you can have the best performance fighter in the world but if you can't see your enemies it dosen't really matter in the end.
current chinese military tech is about 10 to 15 years behind US. J-10 is only on par with F-16C/D or Block 62/65
if china ever wanna make a Dent in a air battle with US it sure needs hell of a lot more than 300 J-10 they plan to buy.

Roger604 said:

China was once a dirt poor country that spent very little money on the PLAAF. Today, the Chinese military gets about 3-4% of the Chinese GDP in funding. The Chinese GDP is currently only ~40% of the US GDP, but growing at 12% per year!

Chinese GDP should equal the US by 2013-2016. And it will be able to spend at a comparable level. By that time, any gap between the US military and the Chinese will be minuscule

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Also, the GDP of PRC as of 2006 is $2.68 trillion, and U.S.'s GDP is 13.77 trillion. 2.68/13.77 = 0.19 = 19%

Which means China's GDP is less 1/5th of United States, still quite a bit of a gap I'd say .

It depends on whether or not one factors in PPP into China's GDP.

We have to stop the economics and steer this thread back to plane discussion.