J-XX Fighter Aircraft

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zhouj

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Re: J-xx

Indianfighter said:
In exactly the same way, the US military industrial complex would also have as much access and depth of knowledge of the J-XX, because secrecy or access to the other side thereof, in this case atleast is not a unilateral effort and privilege.
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Are you intentionally daft? The point is not that the US military-industrial complex lacks information about the J-XX; it's that the Chinese complex has much better access to information about JSF capabilities than you ever will. Instead of addressing the fact that you made a critical flaw in your analysis, you divert it to an irrelevant topic. The reality is that your idea that PLA analysts and engineers have no ideas about JSF capabilities because it's "classified" is naive.

When you mention "knowing the science behind it", and taking into account the context of espionage at the basest level, it invariably involves the technology to manufacture the desired component(s). Examples are manufacture of AESA radars' gallium arsenide, machinery to integrate all the components, source codes, etc.
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Again, you miss the point. The idea is that me telling you the exact chemical makeup of a polymer or composite does not necessitate you can instantly integrate it into a weapon system. I could tell you the manufacturing process and it would still take time to provide infrastructure capable of producing the required material in production quantities. Rather than trying to rehash or redirect already stated facts, it would be more productive to add either constructive criticism or some other sort of value to the discussion.
 
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zhouj

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Re: J-xx

AssassinsMace said:
If China followed along with all the so-called experts say, China would be existing in a dire situation. The fact is the "experts" have always said China can't do this... China can't do that... and they've been majority of the time wrong. Really with all the "expert" pessimism about China, why is everyone so alarmed about the future? What's the big deal about the expert estimated "not for another ten years" ASAT capability then?
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Even with a nation with barely comparable technology to the US while on China's scale would present a serious concern to the United States. On the other hand, it might be the collision of the human ego and the realization that being delusional is not quite healthy.

Or it could be simply a ploy; play down the enemy so people don't worry now and increase their risk expectations (which decreases wealth) but raises concerns far enough in the long-term to justify certain expenditures or policies but without causing the former. Military science is not exactly the most academically rigorous field and as a result, there is limited incentive for the "experts" to hold them to higher standards of integrity and accuracy.
 
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zyun8288

Junior Member
Re: J-xx

AmiGanguli, I am lost.

I can only repeat my view again: PLAAF definitely will fight with whatever they have, but China's aviation industry needs to meet 3 requirements/challenges:
1. Short term goal is to reduce US+Taiwan's current air superiority if worse come to worse. This is will be met by keep on upgrading J10 and J11

2. mid term, if the Taiwan situation can be controlled using non-military means then, a proper stealth fighter is needed to compete with F22/F35 around China's borders. This task can't be done by modifying J10 and J11. This is JXX's goal. And, not just my guess, many other sources (like the recent PLA general's interview) points 2012 as the maiden flight date. In other words, it's definitely on, although my view is that the final sanction will be issued next year. And my major disagreement with couple of other members is about the date of entering service, which I believe will be around 2018 rahter than 2010-2015.

3. Long term goal is to futhur reduce the technology gap between China and other leading countris so that China is better positioned in the race of next generation of combat planes after JXX.
 
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kw64

Junior Member
Re: J-xx

zyun8288 said:
AmiGanguli, I am lost.

I can only repeat my view again: PLAAF definitely will fight with whatever they have, but China's aviation industry needs to meet 3 requirements/challenges:
1. Short term goal is to reduce US+Taiwan's current air superiority if worse come to worse. This is will be met by keep on upgrading J10 and J11

2. mid term, if the Taiwan situation can be controlled using non-military means then, a proper stealth fighter is needed to compete with F22/F35 around China's borders. This task can't be done by modifying J10 and J11. This is JXX's goal. And, not just my guess, many other sources (like the recent PLA general's interview) points 2012 as the maiden flight date. In other words, it's definitely on, although my view is that the final sanction will be issued next year. And my major disagreement with couple of other members is about the date of entering service, which I believe will be around 2018 rahter than 2010-2015.

3. Long term goal is to futhur reduce the technology gap between China and other leading countris so that China is better positioned in the race of next generation of combat planes after JXX.
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I think the best short-term solution for the PLAAF is to purchase some Su-35s from Russia. It's a 4.5 gen. fighter in every way, it's reasonably inexpensive, and it contains many crucial technologies to develop an advanced fighter that PLA has yet to master.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Re: J-xx

kw64 said:
I think the best short-term solution for the PLAAF is to purchase some Su-35s from Russia. It's a 4.5 gen. fighter in every way, it's reasonably inexpensive, and it contains many crucial technologies to develop an advanced fighter that PLA has yet to master.
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I generally disagree with this statement. I will post why as a reply to Pinkov's article in a new blog entry. But like I said before, the basic idea is that su-35 will not provide anything that China cannot get with an upgraded J-11. From a pure tactical point view, it cannot possibly compete with F-22/35. So, it doesn't really provide anything that China currently does not have.
 
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dh19440113

New Member
Re: J-xx

PLAAF need J-XX, PAK-FA. Su-35 technology can be achieved with J-11B if PLAAF so wishes. It has nothing PLAAF can't replicate by itself.
 
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zyun8288

Junior Member
Re: J-xx

kw64 said:
I think the best short-term solution for the PLAAF is to purchase some Su-35s from Russia. It's a 4.5 gen. fighter in every way, it's reasonably inexpensive, and it contains many crucial technologies to develop an advanced fighter that PLA has yet to master.
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Su35 is a good plane, it's better than J11B.

But China's focus before JXX's arrival is the word "UPGRADE"; The aim is to specifically target the given battle field and CONSTANTLY UPGRADE the existing types of planes to fight within China's air defense network.

In other words, the key issue is Battle field Construction. With J10 and J11, China can keep on changing and modifying them to keep up pace with the whole battle field system that's been built gradually, just as all the other equipments.

Given current Su35's status, China would be lucky to get the first Su35 regiment up in 2012 and 2015 would the early date to finish integrating them into the whole system. And it will be a pain in neck for China to modify the Su35.

For the short term goal, it's not about getting another new type of planes, it's about how to better use the current planes.

Su35's real chance in China depends on 117s and China's own engine development. I think the final decision is not far away.
 
Roger604

Roger604

Senior Member
Re: J-xx

Remember the Chinese BBS post from a few pages back? It said that an advanced mod of J-11 has been under preliminary study, but it's currently shelved. Maybe SAC is seeking more information on Su-35 to develop this.

I really doubt China would buy more than a handful of Su-35. It would not bode well for the domestic programs. Even if it was only the domestic mod being developed, it would still suggest J-XX is not moving along quite optimally.

As for J-XX, the uber-speed at which the J-11B entered service (5 years after announcement) is an upper limit on how fast the J-XX program can go. Assuming CAC did very extensive study of the design prior to it being accepted, SAC can probably manufacture a prototype in 2 years, so mid 2008. If nothing goes wrong, they can probably finalize the design in two more years, 2010. After that, SAC starts building the facilities to serial produce it in 2 or 3 years. So around 2012-2015 is reasonable for entering service.
 
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dh19440113

New Member
Re: J-xx

PLAAF has alot of obsolete J-7 and J-8I, replacing these with J-10/FC-1 seems more resonable than purchasing a handful of Su-35.
The purchase and use of indiginous plane has many national pride and economic implication as well.
Had China joined Pak-FA program, it would receive 5th generation fighters in PLAAF by 2015. It can then take its time to make shengyang J-12 better, and cancel the J-13 programs since its not as good.
 
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