J-XX Fighter Aircraft

Re: J-xx

Roger604 said:

As for J-XX, the uber-speed at which the J-11B entered service (5 years after announcement) is an upper limit on how fast the J-XX program can go. Assuming CAC did very extensive study of the design prior to it being accepted, SAC can probably manufacture a prototype in 2 years, so mid 2008. If nothing goes wrong, they can probably finalize the design in two more years, 2010. After that, SAC starts building the facilities to serial produce it in 2 or 3 years. So around 2012-2015 is reasonable for entering service.

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what support you think SAC can probably manufacture a prototype in 2 years? and ....2010, and ....produce it in 2 or 3 years? because the Uber-speed at J-11b entered service ( 5 years after announcement)?
J-11b only progress J-11 ( China bought Su27 tech from Russia ),still took 5 years that long, Jxx is total new type 4th generation fighter,every thing different,as much more different than 2nd generation go up to 3nd generation fighter,it's new leap in aerospace. around the world, exept US, no other country can make it now.I think everybody knows that.
so,what secret sources disclosed to you let you figure these ?
General Xu said Jxx project has been started 4-5 years that include from design and wind tunnel test, I think.

Re: J-xx

When did they actually start work on the J-XX? Final design may have been recent but components maybe further along. We have seen pics of prototype Chinese TVC for instance. We've heard China's been working on AESA. What else?

Re: J-xx

dh19440113 said:

PLAAF has alot of obsolete J-7 and J-8I, replacing these with J-10/FC-1 seems more resonable than purchasing a handful of Su-35.
The purchase and use of indiginous plane has many national pride and economic implication as well.
Had China joined Pak-FA program, it would receive 5th generation fighters in PLAAF by 2015. It can then take its time to make shengyang J-12 better, and cancel the J-13 programs since its not as good.

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Where'd you get that J-12 is better than J-13? Neither fighters are exposed yet (Probably still on the drawing board) Don't make these assumptions base on guess. Plus, there are for different roles.

Re: J-xx

Maozedong:

Let's look at where the PLAAF was in 2001 and where the PLAAF is in 2007.

The same quantum leap will take place between 2007 and 2013.

You can bet on that!

Re: J-xx

yea, I also wish you are right. I just cant not but point out the difficulties of China.

The Long March of Jet Fighter Development

I recently came across an interesting article, detailing some of the problems that the US has run into, with development of the F-35:



This brought to mind all of the earlier assurances that the F-35 was on an accelerated timetable - which mirror some of the bombastic development plans (or rumors) circulated by the Russians for the T-50, or by other sources, for the development of the J-XX.

Bottom line: developing new technology, and packaging it into an airplane that works as intended, takes time - typically a decade or more in today's world. There are no shortcuts - or at least none that don't end in a ball of flames at the end of the runway.

I am confident that there will be a J-XX, but not for some time to come. In the meantime, the J-10 and J-11 will have become the backbone of the new PLAAF. The current development pattern of the F-35 is but one example of the realities of fielding new technology. I'll leave it to our forum members to add others.

The SAC/611/601 or whoever's got the design could probably build a full scale airframe by 2010, and maybe mount WS-10A engines to give it a few test flights. But I doubt that the next generation avionics, AESA radar, high thrust engine and weapons systems will even have left the drawing board by then.

Re: The Long March of Jet Fighter Development

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unknauthr:
I recently came across an interesting article, detailing some of the problems that the US has run into, with development of the F-35:

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That is a nice article, thanks. I think the article exaggerates the problems the JSF development is experiencing.

According to the article, the JSF program started in 2001 and it will be operational in 2016. That is 15 years of development, which is the industry norm.

The F-14 was the result of the semi-failed F-111 project that began in the late 1950s. The F-14 was operational in the early 1970s. That is more or less 15 years of development.

The F-15 was a mix of the F-14 project and an independent project that began in the early 1960s, and the F-15 was operational in the early 1970s. That is 10 years of development accelerated by the related F-14 project.

The F-22 project started in the late 1970s and the F-22 became operational ~2005. That is 15 to 20 years of development.

The Eurofighter Typhoon started in the 1980s and was operational in ~2006, which is ~20 years of development. This is a pretty good development length considering how the European Union has petty internal arguments and France broke off from the project to build its Dassault Rafale.

The JSF is experiencing typical development problems and its development is on schedule when compared to other modern fighter jets (JSF program started 2001 and its planned completion is 2016).

I think China (and Russia) can field their next-generation fighter jets by 2015 if they wanted to. However, China (and Russia) aims for asymmetrical warfare, so China's (and Russia's) military development and results will not be similar to America's. I mention Russia because Russia and China have worked together more than China and any other nation, but over time, China is working more with other nations (including spying and secret deals).

Re: J-xx

Roger604 said:

Maozedong:

Let's look at where the PLAAF was in 2001 and where the PLAAF is in 2007.

The same quantum leap will take place between 2007 and 2013.

You can bet on that!

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There was indeed a great leap forward for PLAAF during the last decade, but I think the development of PLAAF is coming to a bottleneck. It's not hard to upgrade its cold war era airplanes to 4th gen. (or 3rd gen. by Chinese standard) fighters given the available technology and equipments bought from Russia. But it's a completely different story to develop its own 5th gen. stealth aircraft since China can't rely on studying/copying Russian equipment anymore. PLAAF has no experience what so ever in terms of stealth technology on aircrafts, its domestic engines are unfit to a 5th gen. fighter, and it need some serious upgrade of its radar/electronic systems. It's only natural to assume the development of J-XX will be much harder and longer than J-10. Since it too 20 years for J-10 to enter service, it's hard to expect the PLAAF come up with something similar to F-22 before 2050.

True, technological advances will get smaller, but at the same time, tried and tested technologies of j10 and j11b will get easier to implement. Coupled with bigger procurement budgets, the bottleneck of long introduction of a new fighter will somewhat be compensated with large production of current fighter types. PLAAFs strength as a whole will therefore keep increasing.