J-XX Fighter Aircraft

Re: J-xx

kw64 said:

Although Phoenix TV is a major satellite channel in China, it doesn't have a very good record when comes to accurately reporting PLA related news. For example, last month Phoenix TV broke out a news that PLAAF has test flied a stealth strategic bomber H-8 which later on proved to be obviously inaccurate.

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On that show, I pay more attention to what the generals and other commentators say than what the host says. Ma Jin Shen in particular provides very good analysis. This particular quote "J-XX will arrive within 5 to 7 years, no problem" comes from one of the generals.

ff the TV show provided the A-12 Avenger photo merely as illustration, not to prove the existence of the H-8 -- which admittedly is improbable

Re: J-xx

Roger604 said:

On that show, I pay more attention to what the generals and other commentators say than what the host says. Ma Jin Shen in particular provides very good analysis. This particular quote "J-XX will arrive within 5 to 7 years, no problem" comes from one of the generals.

ff the TV show provided the A-12 Avenger photo merely as illustration, not to prove the existence of the H-8 -- which admittedly is improbable

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My main concern is the part where he said the J-XX will arrive within 5-7 years. What does he mean by "arrive"? If it means in 5-7 years the JXX will enter the PLAAF service I would find it highly unlikely, because that would mean right now there are already prototypes being built and they've went through extensive test flights and evaluations. But there's a vacuum of reliable information regarding to any sort of things listed above. It is plausible that PLAAF can finish the first prototype or test flight of J-XX in 5-7 years, but there's a loooong way to go between the first prototype and the entry of military service, which may take much longer.

Re: J-xx

kw64 said:

It is plausible that PLAAF can finish the first prototype or test flight of J-XX in 5-7 years, but there's a loooong way to go between the first prototype and the entry of military service, which may take much longer.

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I think it depends on how many prototypes they go through before settling on one design.

We first saw a photo of J-11B prototype in beginning of 2006. Now its entering service. That's only 5 years between the time J-11B was officially announced to entering service (2002-2007)! And when was J-XX officially announced? End of 2006.

If J-XX goes so smoothly (it's also SAC manufactured), 3 years between first flight and entering service is definitely possible. The J-10 took an extraordinary long time because they had to re-redesign it after the original engine became unavailable.

Re: J-xx

Well, no crystal ball necessary in making this statement but there will be several new projects suddenly popping during the next five years.

The only important analytic question should be how advanced these new warplanes (or even UCAV's) will be in comparison with the current US standard as well as with the current PRC standard.

Speculating about how long it would take the chinese aerospace industry to develop and the PLAAF to introduce a ´true´4.5 or 5th generation fighter is indeed a high risk gamble since analogous assumptions like ´the US/Russia/Europe took it xx years, so China will take x more or x less´ are bound to fail since China has to be measured by her own standard (in positive as well as negative).

The entire country is morphing beyond recognition in a relentless speed for almost two decades now and the meaning of ´taking a long time´is simply different in a country where it takes a short year to build 90 GW's of power plants (10% of the US generating capacity, 100% of UK's) or 4500 km of highways (53000 km in '07, 0 km in '88!, US has ~ 80000 km). Of course building the most complex and intricate weapon systems is a different business from bringing up power plants in record breaking pace however underestimating the gigantic continuously expanding resources of the PRC would make a very imprudent analysis.

After all there must be taken into consideration that the PLA military doctrine is substantially different from western concepts of military thinking and PLAAF will certainly not copy or emulate everything the USAF decides to undertake. So even in this sphere there will be probably some unexpected developments...

Re: J-xx

I am a stouch JXX supporter, but I have been trying to express my view that we should hold our expectactions low about JXX; It's always good to overestimate the difficulty!

As of how to measure JXX's progress, since now it's completely in the hands of engineers, it will follow science, rather than emotions, politics etc... Thus we can relatively easy to guess how it can progress ideally and non-ideally by comparing with other fighter projects, especially China's own projects.

In fact, Roger has just provided a good example, J11B. It's basically an indigenised aero dynamically proven Flanker frame integrated with chinese avionics and weapons which are mostly verfied by other chinese planes already. And yet it still took 5 YEARS to enter service. Do you guys really believe that JXX is only 2-3 years more complicated than a J11B?

For any new fighter planes, there are nationally required test items and hours to meet, you simply can't by pass that. In the 60s-70s, China tried to ignore lots of these scientific requirements and we failed miserably.

Put it this way, for those test items, either you test them by your speically trained test pilots, Or you test them by your operational pilots later on(sometimes with lives)

Re: J-xx

zyun8288 said:

In fact, Roger has just provided a good example, J11B. It's basically an indigenised aero dynamically proven Flanker frame integrated with chinese avionics and weapons which are mostly verfied by other chinese planes already. And yet it still took 5 YEARS to enter service. Do you guys really believe that JXX is only 2-3 years more complicated than a J11B?

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But... 1) the military budget is now at least double what it was when the J11B work started, 2) preliminary work on the JXX has been going on for a long time - we don't really know how long or how intensively, 3) the engineers who recently completed the J11 and J10 are now more experienced.

On top of that, we have no idea what the development strategy for the JXX is. It's entirely possible that the JXX will use existing engines, radar, and avionics with the only big new features being a stealthier shape and internal weapons bay. More advanced features could be added later as JXXA, JXXB, etc.

If you take a low RCS airframe design that's been under work since 1999 (quite plausible) and add some engineers fresh from working on the J11B and J10, you could get something into the air pretty quickly.

Obviously I'm just speculating, but my point is that there are scenarios where you could have production fighters within seven years. It all depends on what strategy the PLAAF chooses to follow.

... Ami.

Re: J-xx

1) the military budget is now at least double what it was when the J11B work started,
....BUT the difficulty of making JXX is quadripled at least. Although defence budget has been increased in all countries, new fighter projects are all taking longer time to develop.

2) preliminary work on the JXX has been going on for a long time - we don't really know how long or how intensively,
....China started checking on Flanker since later 1980s, then as early as 1992 SAC received actual Flanker plane to study. Simply put, I really think JXX's preparation can not be as comprehensive as J11B's

3) the engineers who recently completed the J11 and J10 are now more experienced.
....these experiences are very important but they won't make JXX's development easier than J10's development. If with J7,J8 and J9's experiences CAC had to spend 8+ years on J10 from prototype to final certification, isn't it natural to assume China can't finish JXX's testing in 3 years (2012-2015)?

4) Gradual developement strategy for JXX using existing engine, radar, avionics and weapon.
....This has been the approach we''ve been talking for a long time and I support it. But there's a fine line between a real 4th gen JXX and a 3rd gen fighter with low RCS figures.

I always support the idea of going for a 3.8 gen low RCS fighter as early as possible, then go for a true 4th gen stealth fighter. But I would never call a fighter a JXX ONLY because it looks like a 4th gen fighter but with full 3rd gen stuff inside.

You just can't use existing engine, radar etc... to make a JXX, it would only be a J10C or J11C; It would just be a word game.

Re: J-xx

zyun8288 said:

I always support the idea of going for a 3.8 gen low RCS fighter as early as possible, then go for a true 4th gen stealth fighter. But I would never call a fighter a JXX ONLY because it looks like a 4th gen fighter but with full 3rd gen stuff inside.

You just can't use existing engine, radar etc... to make a JXX, it would only be J10C or J11C; It would just be a word game.

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Does that matter? And why just low RCS rather than full-blown stealth?

The whole 3rd gen/4rth gen thing is pretty artificial and arbitrary anyway. The approach of building good airframe and using it as a platform for many more advanced variants has worked pretty well for Sukhoi.

... Ami.

Re: J-xx

AmiGanguli said:

Does that matter? And why just low RCS rather than full-blown stealth?

The whole 3rd gen/4rth gen thing is pretty artificial and arbitrary anyway. The approach of building good airframe and using it as a platform for many more advanced variants has worked pretty well for Sukhoi.

... Ami.

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I am not sure I understand what you meant correctly or not. But you seem to suggest that a modified J10 and J11 can do JXX's job. I disagree with that.

For China, the question is not about to get another new fighter into sky as quick as possible. The need of China's future planes, IMHO, is quite simple:
1. in the short term how to reduce US + Taiwan air superiority around the given Taiwan straight battle field for a given period of time so that PLA and PLAN can land enough troops on the island.
2. in the mid term how to deal or compete with F22/F35 class fighters in East Asia's sky,
3. at the same time to enhance China's aviation industry to develop in the long term .

To me, JXX is to fulfill the second and third requirement. If a modified J10 or J11 can meet these requirements, then China is really wasting their time evaluating proposals after proposals since 17 years ago (1990).

Re: J-xx

zyun8288 said:

I am not sure I understand what you meant correctly or not. But you seem to suggest that a modified J10 and J11 can do JXX's job. I disagree with that.

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I would dispute the notion that there is such a thing as "JXX's job". War with Taiwan isn't imminent, but if it does come then there's no point in having an advanced fighter on the drawing board but nothing actually deployed. You can't ask your enemy to wait 10 years while you get your super-advanced fighter into production. At some point you have to go with what you've got, even if it's not comparable to what the enemy can field.

I'm mostly responding to the arguments about when a JXX could reasonably enter service. I think there's absolutely no way to know this, and I illustrate this point by giving what I think is a very realistic way that a stealthy aircraft could enter service within 7 years.

It's also quite possible (though unlikely, in my opinion) that China will wait until they have something that they feel is fully on-par with the best the West has to offer before they put anything into service. In that case 40 years might be a reasonable time frame.

The truth could be anywhere in-between.

Anyway, I think an evolutionary approach is perfectly reasonable for China. Since airframes don't evolve so quickly and take a lot of time to certify, design a good one and stick with it for a few decades. Upgrade the more rapidly advancing tech within that platform for as long as you can.

... Ami.