J-XX Fighter Aircraft

Re: J-xx

That aircraft profile itself may or may not be the real J-XX, but one thing is for sure: that picture is PS'ed, due to reasons explained by aquanauts.

Since we know for sure its PS'ed, think about the motivation behind creating such an image. And that tells me I should give it zero value.

Re: J-xx

I have read on the rumour of the J-XX.

It says the J-XX project is actually two projects running in parallel.

One is the fighter based on the F-22 Class by having stealth capabilities and the other is an upgrade version of the J-10 known as the Super-10.

Does anyone know about this or have more information?

Re: J-xx

Roger604 said:

I beg to differ. I don't know where you've been for the last two years, but "J-XX" photos have been circulating on the internet for a while now. You are right that first comes the fake ones, then the blurry real ones, then the clear real ones. But you've neglected to mention the fact that the vast majority of fakes are OBVIOUSLY fakes. The "close calls" have more often than not turned out to be real!

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Firstly, Where I have been in the last 2 years is irrelevant to whether this plane is real or not. Please understand that.

Secondly, on most forums (including chinese ones), this pic is regarded as OBVIOUSLY fake. This one is far from a close call.

We've already seen the fake ones, even some real nice CGI's, including those published in magazines as concept art. But now I believe we are entering the phase where REAL PHOTOS are coming out. The first photo was the cockpit photo. We know FOR SURE this cockpit photo is coming from official Chinese military or military designers, not just some random guy from the internet.

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Take J10 and WZ10 as examples, the stage of fake photoes lasted 5-8 years as far as I know. In regard of JXX, we are only at the beginning of the fake picture stage.

As of the cockpit picture(actually it's from an video), I never doubted it. It's real, but we should not OVER speculate.

In the past, when the PLA puts out something, it's always later proven to be the real deal. This silhouette is consistent with the cockpit photo -- that gives it at least a shade of credibility. It looks like some pieces may be falling into place.

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Are you telling me this picture is put out by PLA? Any evidences?

You know this is one of the problems I can see in your posts: you are speculating on top of speculations. We still have no solid evidence to prove that this pic is authentic, yet you are already making statements on the basis that it's put out by PLA, which I can see is just a wishful speculation from you.


Roger604, please understand this from me: I've been watching this JXX thing for a long time. As late as 1999, I openly stated that China has been working on the next gen fighter actively. I am a true believer of JXX, I never doubt it.

But, as our old chinese thinking goes, although I am bold to make these general overall claims or assumption, I am very careful on examine details and very cautious on making concrete conclusions. In other words, only say what you really know and only speculate on top of relatively confirmed basis. I try not to speculate on speculations.

That's why I take a "conservative" stance on judging this photo (also the stealthy FC1 photo).

Re: J-xx

Now this is interesting

1,下一代重歼方案以定,用611的气动,601和611联合设计,SF制造(包括样机).

2.611现在独立搞的是歼10的几种改进型,最先进的一种是大改,重点是制空,要求可和F35空战抗衡.132加011会大量生产10系列.

3.601在歼11B基础上搞舰载,没鸭翼,应该样机以试飞.11有大改方案,没完全放弃,备用.

4.FC-1我们没有专用生产线,专用生产线在小巴那里建.

4代sf输了,航电,飞控,等等一些主要项目别cf拿走了,cf就分到些比较小的,还是和别人一起分的,所以在哭鼻子.

所以cf原来的计划----大10下马了,全力搞4代

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J-XX plan has been finalized. It will use the design submitted by CAC but will be manufactured by SAC. CAC had been working on a major modification of J-10 (i.e. "twin-engined J-10"). This aircraft was intended to be a match for F-35. But this twin-engined J-10 has been abandoned in favor of devoting full resources to J-XX.

The J-10 will be upgraded soon and mass produced. SAC has been busy with navalized J-11B. A prototype is already flying.


I'll bet the CAC design for J-XX shares many similarities with their (now abandoned) design for "twin-engined J-10". We can expect J-XX to be delta canard with twin tail fins.

My hypothesis is that this "news" only came out recently, but the decisions were made many months ago. When the twin-engined J-10 was abandoned, a photograph showing its design was then "leaked" to the internet -- that's our cockpit photo. This is why the cockpit photo shows an aircraft with external munitions. A major difference between the twin-engined J-10 design and the J-XX design would be full internal weapons bay.

If this hypothesis is correct, then they've been working on making a prototype of J-XX since November 2006, at the latest (that's when the cockpit photo came out). Depending on how long it takes to build the first prototype, first flight may be before the end of this year or beginning of the next. If it takes a further 3 years to enter service, we'll see J-XX in service by end of 2010 / early 2011.

Re: J-xx

Roger604 said:

.......

If this hypothesis is correct, then they've been working on making a prototype of J-XX since November 2006, at the latest (that's when the cockpit photo came out). Depending on how long it takes to build the first prototype, first flight may be before the end of this year or beginning of the next. If it takes a further 3 years to enter service, we'll see J-XX in service by end of 2010 / early 2011.

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2010/11 seems very early for J-xx, much earlier than any has suggested so far.
IF indeed 2010/11 timeframe is true, it suggests J-xx won't be too much of a 'revolutionary' jump in tech for PLAAF.
That may not be too bad as a super jet like F-22 that turns out to be too expensive to be bought in numbers may not be the best solution.

Re: J-xx

To help non-chinese forumites to understand what Roger just posted, here's a translation of 3 lines chinese texts that are related to JXX

1. Next generation fighter project plan has been finalised, based on a 611's aero dynamic design proposal, 601 and 611 work together for the design, SAC is responsible for prototypes and mass production.

2. 611 has several J10 upgrade plans, the most advanced one is required to counter F35

3. SAC has lost on the 4th gen project, they are crying. CAC got the work on avionics and FBW. So they have abandoned the twin engine J10 and concentrate on the 4th gen project.

Re: J-xx

So, IF these chinese words are correct, then my prediction just a few days ago seem to match them:

"1. The most likely scenario is: Keep upgrading J10 and J11 for the next 15 years and wait for J-XX with Russian engine to enter service after 2018-2020. This is not ideal but it's acceptable"

My centre point is there can be only one JXX project, because China needs to use all her design capabilities to finish this job. It's a damn tough job.

Now, I still differ with Roger's view on when JXX will be ready. Although Roger has extended the in service date from 2010 to 2011-2012, I still think it's impossible, because:
1. Just a simple logic, if it can enter service so quickly (3-4 years), there wouldn't be any need to upgrade J10. CAC would be wasting their time to come up with a F35 like J10; Not to mention that if, as the text said, they are CONCENTRATING on the 4th gen project, they would not have time to make another F35.

2. A F22 class 4th gen stealth fighter is not so easy. IF, as the text said, SAC/601 are crying, that means the decision has just been made. From making decision to entering service, please check all the modern fighters dev history, which one can do that in 4 years? NONE. When was J10 project got sanctioned and when was J10 entering service?

Re: J-xx

Here's my quick amaturish estimate for the JXX based on those chinese text, and the fact that China has done substantial R&D preparations:

1. Start of the project: July 2007

2. July 2007- Dec 2007: Detailed design phase. As the chief designer, 601 and 611 will need to finalize, not just Aero dynamic design, but also many other designs. Structure, Avionics, Sensors, Weapon, maintenance system etc... They will need to work with many other sub system designers to come up with a complete detailed design to meet all the requirements of PLAAF. Here I am making a very pro-china estimate by putting down just 6 months, although history tells us even 6 years for this stage is not abnormal. Just have a look at Russia's PAK-FA and Chinas own J10.

3. Jan 2008-Dec 2008, 12 months for CAD/CAM preparation. If all the design details are ready, they need to be computerised/digitised. For example, it took 611 7 months to finish this stage for FC1. It was descibed as a miracle. So 12 month for a F22 class fighter, you can't ask less.

4. Jan 2009- Dec 2009, 12 months to produce at least 4 prototypes: 01-04. 02 will be doing critical static testings to prove the plane structure is safe and sound for the first flight. 01 will be used to many ground testing and iron out any critical problems. 03 will be the lucky one, with 04 as the backup

5.March 2010, after new years eve, chinese spring festival and the coldest months of the winter, it will be the right time for 03 to do the first flight. This is assuming that, either Russia unselfishly delievered 117S engine to help China's JXX to compete with their own T50/PAK-FA, which is running almost parallel, OR PLAAF is brave enough to agree to use WS10's new variant (15+ ton max thrust version).

6. 2010- 2012, with another 6 prototypes, in 2 years time, all basic flight tests will be finished.

7. 2012-2013, basic system integration testing, like Radar, Avionics, gun, drop tank, ECMs etc...

8. 2013-2014, if all sub-systems work to basic requirements, PLAAF will be eager to get several JXX to try it out, while futhur testings are performed at the same time.

9. 2014-2015, for advanced testings, e.g. weapon firings under difficult conditions: like speed,altitude, AOA, multiple planes formation etc...

10. 2016, first JXX regiment established. And I am running out of patience, so this is it, it's operational.

So, this is my best estimate for JXX. What do you guys think?

I think I am wasting my time.

Re: J-xx

I think there's absolutely no way to know.

The time-line depends on:

1. how much work has been done already,
2. how ambitious the PLAAF makes the specs.

and there's no way to know the answer to either question.

Re: J-xx

And to add with that the normal difficoulties that are more or less a rule to all projects as large as this. Usually if everything goes along with the intended timeline something is done by cheating. And when you cheat in technical projects, well the consequenses can be chatastrophicals...