J-XX Fighter Aircraft

Re: J-xx

Roger604 said:

That video was shown on CCTV?? Then that's really official.

Anyway it looks like we have a number of newbies here that are asking newbie questions about J-XX. Okay, here's a quick summary of the accepted wisdom in this forum:

Unlike what you may have heard from Pakistani Defense Forum or Indian Defense Forum or whatever, China is no longer a military hardware importing country. Put simply: Chinese military technology is roughly on par with Russian technology -- some areas ahead and some areas behind. So please don't bother asking newbie questions like "why doesn't China buy <Russian hardware>" or "wouldn't China be behind India if it doesn't buy <Russian hardware>". Many of the older forumites got sick of answering these questions over and over again.

Specifically regarding "J-XX". There are about 3 or 4 stealth fighter programs right now. There is a Chengdu stealth fighter program that is expected to be at the same stealth capability of F-35, but with MUCH better aerodynamic performance, and that will enter service around the beginning of the next decade. There is a Shenyang stealth fighter program that is expected to be at the same stealth capability of F-22, and that will enter service maybe 3 years after the Chengdu program. There is also a carrier-borne stealth fighter program, but that is even further into the future.

And the fourth I guess is this one -- a "stealthy" successor to FC-1 / JF-17.

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Out of all your 4 stealth projects, if one of them can take to sky and enter service in the next 10 years, China will certainly claim victory over Europe and maybe over Russia.

I think you need to keep your hopes much lower than above. You seem to mix up several terms together:

Firstly, 611 and 601 are research and design institutes. Generally they do 3 types of R&D works:
A. pure research works. This part of works are gradually shifted to other pure research organisations and universities.

B. preliminary R&D works according to various parties' enquiries. Some are self initiated, some are asked by the holding company AVIC1, others maybe asked by. This is the bulk of the works in terms of number wise, not work load wise. Everyyear, each institute may have 10 projects and 8-9 of them are just preliminary R&D ones. Most of them end up as what they called, technoloy reserves, in various archives.

C. Now, roughly once in a decade (usually more than a decade), a real customer enquiry may turn into a sanctioned national project, like j10 and FC1 in the 80s, and J11 in the 90s. That means out of hundreds of preliminary R&D projects, one could be selected as the basis for a real national project.

Now, as far as I know, China has not officially sanctioned the 4th Gen Stealth fighter jet project yet. So, I think your projects are all preliminary R&D ones. PLAAF may reject all of them, as they have done in the last 15 years. They have turned down almost all 4th gen designs from 601 and 611 in the last 15+years.

And I really think that stealth FC1 is a fan dream. Just have a review on what the current FC1 has gone through in the last 20 years and end up with single digit flying prototypes, you should realise how difficult it is to develop a fighter plane.

I don't deny that there are concrete R&D works being done by 601 and 611 on the future projects, and some exciting techinical info have been leaked out. But for a real national project to succeed, there are many things that need to come together. A lot of them are out of design institutes' control. This is especially true for FC1; The current Pakistan political turmoil may kill your brilliant technical design any time.

Re: J-xx

zyun8288 said:

Roger604, Please read the article you posted again:
声明：MW设计局作品仅代表作者个人观点，本刊仅作为读者交流的平台将其刊登，供读者鉴赏。

设计师／王伟

“枭龙”改型

“枭龙”战机由我国和巴基斯坦联合研制，未来将做为巴方主力轻型战机以替代老旧的歼七。而做为我方，“枭龙 ”将成为一种面向第三世界国家，低廉的、可大量装备的外销机型。但“枭龙”由于是一种低端机型，很多地方采 用了低成本、低性能的设计，可能很难满足部分国家对高性能战机的需求。因此，我尝试在不过多考虑成本的基础 上对原“枭龙”做了部分修改。

....

Please point me to where it says this is official. The author and the magazine clearly stated that this is just the author's own view. How did you come to the conclusion that this author works for 611? Are you the author, are you the publisher or are you just guessing? If guessing please give me some info on how you guessed.

Click to expand...

I don't know who the "designer" is or which "design bureau" he came from. So there's some guesswork involved. The fact the photographs showed up in a magazine suggests it's more than just random fan art. The fact that he talks about the engines and electronics suite of the aircraft implies there is a lot more that went into this than just some random fan art.

Also consider this, if it was some random fan art. Wouldn't the artist simply call it a J-XX? Why go through the length of "inventing" a story about being a successor to FC-1 / JF-17, which is not considered a prestigious project.

So I would say this is intriguingly more than random fan art and less than an official statement.

zyun8288 said:

Now, as far as I know, China has not officially sanctioned the 4th Gen Stealth fighter jet project yet. So, I think your projects are all preliminary R&D ones.

Click to expand...

That is incorrect. The 611 and 601 stealth projects are commonly known to be official. You're the first person who's doubted that!

zyun8288 said:

PLAAF may reject all of them, as they have done in the last 15 years. They have turned down almost all 4th gen designs from 601 and 611 in the last 15+years.

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I have no doubt that many designs went by the way side during this process, that's normal. You can't use that fact to "prove" there's no Chinese stealth fighter project actually in development.

In fact, your claim runs contrary to all commonly accepted wisdom -- which is that the stealth fighter designs are finalized on paper, and at the very least have moved to building the prototypes.

zyun8288 said:

And I really think that stealth FC1 is a fan dream. Just have a review on what the current FC1 has gone through in the last 20 years and end up with single digit flying prototypes, you should realise how difficult it is to develop a fighter plane.

Click to expand...

Single digit flying prototypes? It's been ready for deliver to Pakistan for months now! Like I said, if it wasn't for the Russian engine issue, Pakistan would be flying them already.

zyun8288 said:

I don't deny that there are concrete R&D works being done by 601 and 611 on the future projects, and some exciting techinical info have been leaked out. But for a real national project to succeed, there are many things that need to come together. A lot of them are out of design institutes' control. This is especially true for FC1; The current Pakistan political turmoil may kill your brilliant technical design any time.

Click to expand...

If there is a successor to FC-1 / JF-17, it may not be as focused on Pakistan. But merely made for an export market in general.

Re: J-xx

Zyun, drawing crude parallels from PLAAF's behaviour back in the 80's and 90's with the current handling of R&D of new generation fighterplanes by PLAAF would be fairly misleading. :coffee:

Today the chinese military industrial complex is changing very fast and dynamically. Personal and financial as well as industrial resources are increasing substantially year by year enabling chinese scientists , engineers and military planners eventually to ´level the playing field´regarding global competitors. Of course China has to close the gap further and the US lead is still considerable but they are moving in the right direction and their motion is accelerating...

Building a stealth plane from the scratch is a dramatic challenge for every advanced nation and the US experience in the 70's and 80's has shown that it is very difficult and expensive to succeed but there is no doubt that China has the will, knowledge and the money to acquire that pivotal capability.

Re: J-xx

Roger604 said:

I don't know who the "designer" is or which "design bureau" he came from. So there's some guesswork involved. The fact the photographs showed up in a magazine suggests it's more than just random fan art. The fact that he talks about the engines and electronics suite of the aircraft implies there is a lot more that went into this than just some random fan art.

Also consider this, if it was some random fan art. Wouldn't the artist simply call it a J-XX? Why go through the length of "inventing" a story about being a successor to FC-1 / JF-17, which is not considered a prestigious project.

So I would say this is intriguingly more than random fan art and less than an official statement.

Click to expand...

So all your evidence is because A. he talked about electronics B it's published on a magazine.

Don't you think those are very far stretched evidences? And didn't you notice that article was published near or in the section called "We Love Science", a column aimed at school students?

As of why he chose FC1, you have to ask him. That's his choice. In fact you can find plenty of others who choose J10 to design their planes.

You need better reasons to convince me that this design is 611's official works.

That is incorrect. The 611 and 601 stealth projects are commonly known to be official. You're the first person who's doubted that!

Click to expand...

I must beg you to read my words again,which I went into great length to explain different types of projects: 601 and 611 are all doing preliminary R&D projects. Those projects are not NATIONAL projects sanctioned by the government and paid by the treasurey.

Are you telling me that China has decided to support 611 and 601 to go for 2 stealth fighter projects? If so, you are the only one I've ever seen claiming that. Can you point me to any where to see this commonlhy known fact?

In fact, your claim runs contrary to all commonly accepted wisdom -- which is that the stealth fighter designs are finalized on paper, and at the very least have moved to building the prototypes.

Click to expand...

Again, do you want to point me to somewhere that says China has awared 2 stealth projects works to 601 and 611? Please check how US developed F22 and F35. Do you think China is so technically and financially capable in going for 2 stealth projects at the same time?

Not to mention according to your words the F35 alike version will enter service at the beginning of next decade. Do you know when F35 will enter service? and how many years has US spent on F35 and how much experience US has borrowed from F22?

Single digit flying prototypes? It's been ready for deliver to Pakistan for months now! Like I said, if it wasn't for the Russian engine issue, Pakistan would be flying them already.

Click to expand...

FC1 has 6 prototypes (2 static testing vehicles)+ Plus 2 pre-production versions. Please tell me what are the other flying FC1s that I missed.

Also, is FC1 ready to be deployed? It took J10 5000 test flights to reach IOC. How many test flights have FC1s done? Last time I checked it was 500+. Now, I give you a generous inflation to 1000. If you were PAF, would you deploy it at this stage?

If there is a successor to FC-1 / JF-17, it may not be as focused on Pakistan. But merely made for an export market in general.

Click to expand...

I don't even think this "successor" is what 611/CAC is thinking about.

Have a look at the potential buyers of FC1:
1. PAF will not have enough money to support another major fighter project in the next 10 years.

2. PLAAF will not buy a plane that's significantly overlapps with J10, which is already in service over 100+. The only slim chance is to replace the large number of J7/J8, but its current price tag and late schedule don't help

3. Most of China's other export customers are not rich enough to use the current FC1. More than one country has said they'd rather prefer a new J7.

4. For the few possible customers, J10 will be a more suitable and attractive solution to them in the coming years.

So, IMHO, FC1's future is to go back to its original goal: a Mig21 replacement with BVR missiles. Rather than upgrading, downgrading FC1 is the real solution to get orders from PLAAF and other airforces.

Re: J-xx

Violet Oboe said:

Zyun, drawing crude parallels from PLAAF's behaviour back in the 80's and 90's with the current handling of R&D of new generation fighterplanes by PLAAF would be fairly misleading. :coffee:

Today the chinese military industrial complex is changing very fast and dynamically. Personal and financial as well as industrial resources are increasing substantially year by year enabling chinese scientists , engineers and military planners eventually to ´level the playing field´regarding global competitors. Of course China has to close the gap further and the US lead is still considerable but they are moving in the right direction and their motion is accelerating...

Building a stealth plane from the scratch is a dramatic challenge for every advanced nation and the US experience in the 70's and 80's has shown that it is very difficult and expensive to succeed but there is no doubt that China has the will, knowledge and the money to acquire that pivotal capability.

Click to expand...

I was using the closest example, PLAAF asked all chinese plane design institutes to come up with proposals for future advanced combat aircraft starting year 1990. Since then all institutes, especially 601 and 611 have submitted proposals almost every year. And almost all of them were rejected, as recent as several years ago as far as I know. As long as they don't give the final Yes, all are just talks.

Also, this is a good thing. I am not critising PLAAF. I really liked the way they encourage designers to try and turn every stone first before committing to the final works. But this nature of preliminary R&D tells us not to get over excited until PLAAF make up their mind.

Re: J-xx

In case people think I am just critising other's view, here's my view on China's future advanced combat aircraft, J-XX, whatever, for you guys to criticise:

After 17 years of all sorts of R&D preparations, I think the overall situation is getting clearer, especially now India has gone into the Russian PAK-FA deal.

Now in my view,

1. The most likely scenario is: Keep upgrading J10 and J11 for the next 15 years and wait for J-XX with Russian engine to enter service after 2018-2020. This is not ideal but it's acceptable.

2. A likely alternative, especially if JXX encounter serious problems: keep upgrading J10/J10, then buy PAK-FA (not the Indian version) after 2020 to give JXX. This is the worst scenario, but a fall back is better than nothing

3. A much less likely, albeit very attempting scenario is: develop a quasi 4th gen or 3.8 gen stealth fighter first in the next 8-10 years, so that JXX can come in 2020-2025 with a domestic engine. I like this to happen but it's up to 611 to put up a good fight, because the chance is not high.

Re: J-xx

zyun8288 said:

I must beg you to read my words again,which I went into great length to explain different types of projects: 601 and 611 are all doing preliminary R&D projects. Those projects are not NATIONAL projects sanctioned by the government and paid by the treasurey.

Are you telling me that China has decided to support 611 and 601 to go for 2 stealth fighter projects? If so, you are the only one I've ever seen claiming that. Can you point me to any where to see this commonlhy known fact?

Click to expand...

I don't know how much clearer I can be, so please don't ask me this question again. Yes, PLAAF has decided they need a stealth fighter from Chengdu and another from Shenyang.

As for sources, you can start by looking through this thread and by looking at the sister site of this forum. It's all there.

zyun8288 said:

Again, do you want to point me to somewhere that says China has awared 2 stealth projects works to 601 and 611? Please check how US developed F22 and F35. Do you think China is so technically and financially capable in going for 2 stealth projects at the same time?

Click to expand...

Actually, yes. It has demonstrated surprising advanced in nearly every area of military technology. Going for two stealth projects to be completed around 2010-2015 is not surprising.

zyun8288 said:

Not to mention according to your words the F35 alike version will enter service at the beginning of next decade. Do you know when F35 will enter service? and how many years has US spent on F35 and how much experience US has borrowed from F22?

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I didn't say it was alike. I said it's stealth characteristics will be comparable to F-35. The F-35 is a bulky strike aircraft. The Chengdu stealth fighter will be for aerial superiority.

Yes, I know. So?

zyun8288 said:

FC1 has 6 prototypes (2 static testing vehicles)+ Plus 2 pre-production versions. Please tell me what are the other flying FC1s that I missed.

Also, is FC1 ready to be deployed? It took J10 5000 test flights to reach IOC. How many test flights have FC1s done? Last time I checked it was 500+. Now, I give you a generous inflation to 1000. If you were PAF, would you deploy it at this stage?

Click to expand...

Last time you checked? Unless you're getting some inside information, the figures you have are likely to be out of date. Even the information on the main site is out of date (2005-ish).

The fact is, there was controversy over installing RD-93 in FC-1 for Pakistan. The Russians were under pressure not to allow this. In the end, the controversy was smoothed over, because WS-13 is about to enter service anyway.

So if WS-13 is about to enter service, why would there be a push to give Pakistan the FC-1's with the RD-93's right away? The answer: because they're ready!

I don't why I even bother to debate you about this sort of thing when all you cite is out-of-date figures... even back to the 80's / 90's.

zyun8288 said:

So, IMHO, FC1's future is to go back to its original goal: a Mig21 replacement with BVR missiles. Rather than upgrading, downgrading FC1 is the real solution to get orders from PLAAF and other airforces.

Click to expand...

Again, why are you always stuck in an 80's / 90's frame of mind? Are you telling me that it's foolish for Chinese military aviation to ever seek to improve, since nobody would buy the aircraft??

Are you telling me that there would be no market for a middle-of-the-range multirole fighter with a dash of stealth characteristics? It's ridiculous that you keep assuming the only potential customers would be nations that bought J-7 before.

Re: J-xx

Ok, I think we have undestood each other clearly now.

Your view is that

1. PLAAF has awarded 2 stealth fighter jet projects, one for 601 and one for 611. AND they will be completed between 2010-2015

2. The one with F35 level steath feature will be completed between 2010-2012, with the other one completed 3 years later, which is 2015

3. FC1/JF17 is READY with DOUBLE digit flying vehicles now (even though just 6 months ago there were only 6 prototypes+2 pre-production ones); and WS13 is about to enter service, I suppose you mean less than a year.

4. CAC/611 would produce 2 mid level fighters for the export market, one is the stealthy FC-xx, the other one is J10's export version.

Any changes from you?

My opinion is They are all wrong, let's wait and see.

Anyone else wants to comment? Or put your bet down?

Re: J-xx

BTW Roger604,

What's your rough expectation of the F35 alike version stealth plane? Any internal weapon bay? Supercruise? Single engine or Twin Engine?

Re: J-xx

After some consideration, the "MW Design Bureau" referred to in the article must refer to "Modern Weapons Design Bureau". Of course "Modern Weapons" is the name of the magazine. This means that the photographs and article were made by a staff member with a technical background but without official links to CAC. So I do not think anymore that this design is official in any way.

Nevertheless, all the rest of the claims you mentioned stand. A general point: you are assuming everything the PLA has, they show you, and if they don't show you, they don't have it. In fact, the opposite is actually true. For example, many "western analysts" thought the Type 094 Jin-class SSBN existed only on paper, and all of a sudden, China shows off 3 Type 094's and probably has 1 or 2 more. In other words, the program was completed and all the subs launched even while "western analysts" debated whether China had the technological means to design it.

As for the 611 stealth fighter. I expect it to look like this. The intake will probably be similar to the F-35 or the intakes on the "FC-1 successor" CG.

Here are some new pics of the FC-1. I'll leave it to you, and other folks, to decide whether the 2005-ish estimate of 6 prototypes still stands.