J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread
- Thread starter ACuriousPLAFan
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Precisely. There's already 12x operational ABs exclusively using the type, i.e. ~360 aircraft. Until the J-36 and J-XX enter service they fill a niche as missile trucks, but how many more can the PLAAF really want to acquire?
This would be a blunderous move back in the mid to late 2010s. As others have mentioned, SAC had much more on their plate. Their original competitor to the J-20 was said to be a "flanker" based 5th gen design and not the LockMart based J-35 design we saw in the FC-31 which itself was a flying advertisement (beats the Su-75 wooden mockup advertisement)/ tech demonstrator and nothing more until late 2010s when J-35 prototypes began showing up.
The reality is that the USAF and USN only have one mainstay 5th gen fighter. The F-22 at 180 or so units is just far too small a number (for the USAF which traditionally gets closer to 1000 airforce units for each type of fighter they've developed since the Cold War). The F-22 cannot be considered in the same vein. It wouldn't be a case of producing J-35 to match F-22 and F-35 combo because there for every F-22 there will be close to 10 F-35.
If PLAAF went down the path you suggested and rushed in the J-35, it would be a far inferior J-35 product that would be in service around 2020. PLAAF, PLAN and SAC took the time to determine what they need in a second 5th gen fighter. Rather than approaching this task with the mentality of rushing in a second 5th gen fighter regardless of addressing how best to combat US 5th gens. There is no doubt the current J-35 is a superior fighter than what a late 2010s J-35 would have been. If nothing more than having a better understanding of 5th gen fighter tactics and experiences tussling with the USN in the western pacific. Not to mention being more modern but i digress.
J-16 is an entirely different beast. It is the product of J-11 series evolution and therefore the equipment, expertise, maintenance and parts supply chain is all well and truly reliable. It costs much less to build and maintain a J-16 compared to even a J-20 (i know duh but from a purely manufacturing pov ignorinig generational material cost differences). There is an advantage in being able to spam build J-16s with relatively little required attention and effort. As things are, it's almost a side business for PLAAF and SAC. Despite this, I don't mean to belittle the J-16. It is serving as the main PLAAF EW platform, that is important and until 6th gens with dedicated EW units come out or a J-20 EW variant is ready, J-16 production line remains.
J-16 also has about 1.5x the air to air combat load of the J-20 with similar level of "compromise" to performance ie not a fully loaded J-16 since IWB of J-20 full missile load has significant advantages over a fully loaded J-16. That's nearly a 2x improvement of A2A payload compared to J-35. Sure with even better networking cooperative engagement these days compared to the earlier generations of PLAAF CEC, J-11B and J-10 models easily fill that non VLO missile truck role as well as J-16 (not counting payload wrt J-10), but we don't build new J-11s anymore. J-16 is the Flankerest of Flankers. It is the F-15EX of the eastern hemisphere. It is the eastern 4.5 gen heavyweight. Su-35 would be chewed out by J-16 in A2A and A2G. The only lament (if you can even call it that) from PLAAF on J-16 is that they'd love it with AL-41 engines aka any super heavy thrust engine ... that comment from PLAAF came well before WS-15 modernised version and in the context of comparing J-16 and Su-35. The comparison was even more damning on Su-35 than most of us expected... A2A difference between the two is like modern F-15 vs East German Mig-29.
That's right but J16 is still an overkill in WTC/CTC and will remain so till late 2030s atleast so production won't cease immediately
I think 16/17 batches will be final ones
Sure it can be done just as GAIC is now making J-10. But it took GAIC quite a few years.
J-15 and J-16 are supposedly more sophisticated than J-10. And unlike J-10 which is now only in low rate production for exports, J-16 and in particular J-15 are still in demand by PLA. Regardless of how many will be made, the military will definitely still want to have the aircrafts as soon as possible for obvious reasons. So Hongdu would need to complete the relocation and ramp up the production really fast.
As others have pointed out, with a second 5th generation (J-35) entering production, and the 6th generation on the horizon, production of J-15 and J-16 might soon end. This will make it more difficult to justify the cost of relocation.
This fantasy opportunity cost is exactly what I'm saying does not exist, at least not to the degree implied here.
You're all talking about a microscopic national level of resource allocation required for a relatively important and useful branch in the PLAAF inventory tree.
It isn't taking brains away from more needful tasks. It isn't taking steel or energy away from more needful tasks. It's microscopic in comparison to the vast ocean of other arguably greater and less productive material and energy wastes that exists in Chinese industry (not to say those things are wastes, just relative).
All the workshops, production facilities for J-16 are built and have been around for a long while. The engineering work completed long ago. Sure it's been taking upgrades over the years and new EW variant has been introduced in recent years but this work clearly isn't at the opportunity cost of J-35 and J-50 program or production of J-35.
You're all talking about a microscopic national level of resource allocation required for a relatively important and useful branch in the PLAAF inventory tree.
It isn't taking brains away from more needful tasks. It isn't taking steel or energy away from more needful tasks. It's microscopic in comparison to the vast ocean of other arguably greater and less productive material and energy wastes that exists in Chinese industry (not to say those things are wastes, just relative).
All the workshops, production facilities for J-16 are built and have been around for a long while. The engineering work completed long ago. Sure it's been taking upgrades over the years and new EW variant has been introduced in recent years but this work clearly isn't at the opportunity cost of J-35 and J-50 program or production of J-35.
It's not just the production costs though. Training, maintenance, fuel, etc. must be factored in.
By your argument, PLAAF should still be buying JH-7As.
Simonov: Hongdu busy with GJ-11, JL-10 and maybe other types. They've got a huge new facility and I suspect they're going to spam GJ-11 in the near future.
By your argument, PLAAF should still be buying JH-7As.
Simonov: Hongdu busy with GJ-11, JL-10 and maybe other types. They've got a huge new facility and I suspect they're going to spam GJ-11 in the near future.
Who told you that?
There are possible UCAV production in the future. SAC is the main fuselage supplier for A220 projects, which will take up production space.
The best missile truck right now is H-6K. There are real utility for J-16 which goes beyond missile truck.
At this point, SAC still needs to ramp up J-35 production, so there is no reason to stop flanker production yet. For work share and funding purposes, PLAAF is unlikely to cut flanker production significantly until J-35 production can ramp up. How many of those flankers will be J-16 is hard to say, but there is certainly still demand for J-15s and J-16D.
completely agreed with your analysis.. but
SAC could easily expand production capacity , hire skilled workforce. we have right now overflow of talent and skilled workers. i know they are young and inexperienced but if we see the pattern in other high tech sectors, average age of technicians are under 35.. even J-35 design team is pretty young.. at the end everything depend on PLAAF demand.
first in 2022 and now this month, we have seen the google image, the new Shenyang AC production site located north of Shenyang currently under construction. runway started to appear. probably by middle next year, will be completed.