J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[Aval]

After going through the last few pages of this thread, it's clear the discussion has drifted into speculative territory with some suggesting that the J-35A could be downgraded for Pakistan, or that China should wait until the J-36 or J-50 are in service before considering such exports. Others even floated the idea of potential intelligence leaks to the U.S. if the J-35A ever landed in Pakistan.

This kind of speculation usually stems from a lack of understanding of Pakistan’s internal structure and regional dynamics. Let’s be clear: Pakistan is not Iran, nor is it some unstable, fragmented state. The Pakistani military establishment maintains tight control over the entire spectrum from defense and intelligence to judiciary, bureaucracy, politics, and key industrial sectors. This grip has been firmly in place for decades. The idea of sabotage or leaks through such channels is far-fetched and frankly, disconnected from reality.

That is for Chinese authorities to decide. I do agree that Pakistan's track record and internal structure is promising in that regard, but as always there needs to be a risk vs benefit analysis. Even if the risk is low, is there sufficient benefit to supply Pakistan with J-35AEs this early (we are assuming India is not imminently acquiring 5th-generation fighters)?

As for the notion of a "downgraded version" of the J-35A being exported to Pakistan, let me reiterate, as I’ve stated in other discussions (including the Indian Armed Forces thread): Pakistan does not procure platforms to match China’s inventory or prestige. It procures systems that suit its operational doctrine, regional threat environment, and force structure.

Whether it’s the J35A or any other weapon systems, these aren’t downgraded “consolation prizes.” They are fit-for-purpose platforms, selected to meet specific requirements and integrated into a cohesive, multi-origin defense ecosystem.

Pakistan armed forces strength has always come from how it uses its assets, not just what's written on a spec sheet. The recent operational outcomes clearly reflect that.

Pakistan has a clear and targeted procurement strategy, and indeed they do make purchases and request product modifications to suit their unique requirements.

However, these are made on the knowledge that such products are open to practically limitless modification (within industrial capability) and of the types and extent requested. This was not an issue with J-10Cs acquired more than two decades after the design's first flight, but is quite a different case from a globally cutting-edge design that, at present, isn't even in mass production for its originator nation yet.

Its very possible that while China is willing to accommodate Pakistani modifications for a unique J-35AE "Pakistan" variant, it will likely withhold the most advanced technologies (e.g., RAM coating, radar) and only give an options selection that is altogether a clear tier below what is reserved for domestic use. This should not be unexpected, given how long the J-35 design is expected to serve the PLA.

My point is whether this difference in selection "tier" is even sufficient to keep sensitive military characteristics secret, with the focus being on how much of the J-35A's characteristics come from downgradable options vs what's baked into the airframe itself. And how this risk changes over time (with the years and strategic changes), as does the risk vs benefit analysis mentioned earlier.

 

[TK3600]

We know J-35AE is already made. This means someone ordered for it, and the buyer is not known yet. But I am sure soon enough we will know.

 

[ougoah]

Yes, China will always retain some core technologies for its own use that’s standard across all major arms-exporting nations. But that doesn’t mean what’s offered is “second-tier” in combat effectiveness. What matters is whether the system delivers the required capability in Pakistan’s operational context and historically, it has.

Instead of focusing narrowly on theoretical risks tied to what’s "baked into the airframe," the more relevant question is: Does the tech meet the mission? Is it secure, and is it aligned with mutual strategic interests? In Pakistan’s case, the answer to all of those has consistently been yes and the performance on the ground and in the air continues to back that up.

It's very difficult to define combat effectiveness in this context. A few things I think everyone can agree on.

For higher tier weapons ie not IFVs or artillery and the like, China will not export the latest stuff. China will not export stuff that is very similar or the same as what it operates this could be software.

An export 5th gen fighter can achieve the same "combat effectiveness" as the PLAAF "equivalent" of that 5th gen fighter. However, those two cannot be considered the same. To be more specific with this particular AE version, maybe the stealth coating will not be the exact same metamaterials PLAAF fighters use. The latest metamaterial tech applied to the latest batch of J-20 and J-35 cannot be allowed to make its way onto export fighters. It will easily reveal the level of material tech China has as its "latest and greatest" and allow the US to figure out the best way of exploiting that knowledge. There are US spies in every country. US influence is far greater than China's and its soft power is often underestimated by non-Americans. China has no such reach in third party countries. F-35's secrets can only be accessed by China through its spies in the US and through cyber-espionage. When it comes to the US, not only do they employ spies in China they also have cyber-espionage. If China plays the game well and limit those two leaks, the Americans can simply gather that information via third parties if the above assumptions are not true.

It is far too important to risk. Even if the technologies are FAR behind what the US assumes, it is better to not give away free confirmations.

Back to combat effectiveness. Maybe a "85%" AE version is as combat effective for the purposes that PAF may employ them under but it's also accurate to say the export versions will be different - worse. The Americans have the better F-35s for themselves. Not long ago there was a big fuss about how the Israeli Adir version has some certain abilities "unlocked" that make them almost as capable.

 

[Black Wolf]

It's very difficult to define combat effectiveness in this context. A few things I think everyone can agree on.

For higher tier weapons ie not IFVs or artillery and the like, China will not export the latest stuff. China will not export stuff that is very similar or the same as what it operates this could be software.

An export 5th gen fighter can achieve the same "combat effectiveness" as the PLAAF "equivalent" of that 5th gen fighter. However, those two cannot be considered the same. To be more specific with this particular AE version, maybe the stealth coating will not be the exact same metamaterials PLAAF fighters use. The latest metamaterial tech applied to the latest batch of J-20 and J-35 cannot be allowed to make its way onto export fighters. It will easily reveal the level of material tech China has as its "latest and greatest" and allow the US to figure out the best way of exploiting that knowledge. There are US spies in every country. US influence is far greater than China's and its soft power is often underestimated by non-Americans. China has no such reach in third party countries. F-35's secrets can only be accessed by China through its spies in the US and through cyber-espionage. When it comes to the US, not only do they employ spies in China they also have cyber-espionage. If China plays the game well and limit those two leaks, the Americans can simply gather that information via third parties if the above assumptions are not true.

It is far too important to risk. Even if the technologies are FAR behind what the US assumes, it is better to not give away free confirmations.

Back to combat effectiveness. Maybe a "85%" AE version is as combat effective for the purposes that PAF may employ them under but it's also accurate to say the export versions will be different - worse. The Americans have the better F-35s for themselves. Not long ago there was a big fuss about how the Israeli Adir version has some certain abilities "unlocked" that make them almost as capable.

What’s often overlooked in these debates is that many people still view arms exports through a U.S.-centric lens, where even trusted allies are kept at arm’s length and rarely receive the latest tech without layers of restrictions. But China operates differently, especially with Pakistan.

The reality is that China has already supplied Pakistan with High-end platforms, the J-10CE, PL-15E, HQ-9P, Hangor-Class SSKs, Type 054A/P, and more. These aren’t “hand-me-downs” or downgraded for the sake of keeping Pakistan at a distance, they are tailored systems, customized for Pakistan’s doctrine, threat environment, and force structure. That’s not a sign of China withholding tech, it’s a sign of Pakistan knowing exactly what it needs and how to use it.

What's important is that the versions supplied to Pakistan are highly capable, integrated effectively, and fully meet operational requirements, as proven in actual engagements.

China and Pakistan have built a strategic relationship over decades, based on trust and aligned interests, not the rigid, tiered-access model used by Washington. So instead of assuming China is “holding back,” it’s more accurate to say China supplies what Pakistan needs because Pakistan can employ it effectively.

Maybe it's time we stop judging Chinese exports by American export behavior.

Different players, different rules.

 

[pokepara]

But the complete Rafale system doesn't have 2-way CEC datalinks between the Rafale, AWACs, missiles and SAM radars?

So a complete Rafale system should still lose to a complete J-10 battle network.

Yeah this, is kind of my point. For defensive purposes, is it really worth it?

IMO, the major benefit is to deny American MIC potential source of revenue. But the number of countries that would be trusted enough, while being able to afford J-35, while being a potential customer is maybe non-existent. Pakistan? Iran? Turkey? Eygpt? Seems to me that a J-10-CE airframe is sufficient in the defence package that China would sell?

Look at the countries that have been very export-oriented but neglected their own needs. That would be Russia, France and Germany. Not that I care about French or German defence suffering,

"French and German defence suffering (laudatory)"

 

[Ali Qizilbash]

Frankly I don't understand the fuss regarding exporting and downgrading stuff. Just a waste of time reading these arguments over
and over again. Two many lame assumptions employed to make arguments seems plausible.

As pointed out in this thread China and Pakistan know exactly what they are trading along with associated risks, whatever they are. They have a long history of high profile transactions. So let's stop these childish arguments going forward.

 

[ougoah]

Yea, this is just a discussion on framing and choosing the details and granularity in how we assess those details.

On the topic of the J-35AE which apparently means there's an export version of the land based J-35, I think this version is going to differ with the domestic platform significantly when it comes to onboard equipment, software and coating materials. Pakistan is certainly politically the closest and most trusted "ally" that's short of a formal treaty ally. It will likely be treated more preferentially than Arab states with a lot more western/Israeli influence and leaning. We've all heard the talk about Pakistan's current domestic politics but I feel whatever graces Pakistan gives the US are quite a bit more self-serving than people will have us believe ie they are less likely to jump ship than Arab nations when we're talking about potential export orders and securing these fighters.

This platform is just being introduced to PLANAF and PLAAF. It will be serving for decades to come and alongside J-20, it will be the other spearhead fighter and won't be superseded until J-36 and J-50 reach LRIP. Imagine intel leaks from export models just to earn barely some pocket change. In fact unless we're selling to oil rich nations and selling hundreds, it's really not worth exporting at all unless it's a significantly downgraded unit and differing from PLAAF's so much that the American can have their engineers take one apart and just say ... yep that's a fighter and this is also how basic export models are specced out.

At this point one might think why purchase such a fighter. Answer is, it will still be a LO fighter even with no dedicated stealth metamaterials. Just on shaping and internal weapons bay alone (which the Koreans could not give the KF-21) a J-35AE is still going to be the best exportable fighter next to F-35. I'd put money behind a downgraded AE over Su-57 just on radar, ECM/ESM and available export missiles alone. It'll be stealthier too even without the same materials.

 

[ougoah]

Frankly I don't understand the fuss regarding exporting and downgrading stuff. Just a waste of time reading these arguments over
and over again. Two many lame assumptions employed to make arguments seems plausible.

As pointed out in this thread China and Pakistan know exactly what they are trading along with associated risks, whatever they are. They have a long history of high profile transactions. So let's stop these childish arguments going forward.

It's childish reading crazy claims from Pakistan's side about getting access to anything and everything which history has proven to be otherwise. PL-15 sold to Pakistan were indeed export grade. Their longer than expected range was simply not exposed until the conflict. The J-10CE sold was also not the same as the ones in PLAAF. Even physically different antennas.

This topic is being discussed in context of the J-35AE. It's good to sometimes dispell some of the nonsense spread online about access to non-downgraded stuff. This isn't to say China only exports downgraded stuff. That's clearly not the case for ground forces equipment and some naval equipment.

 

[Black Wolf]

Yea, this is just a discussion on framing and choosing the details and granularity in how we assess those details.

On the topic of the J-35AE which apparently means there's an export version of the land based J-35, I think this version is going to differ with the domestic platform significantly when it comes to onboard equipment, software and coating materials. Pakistan is certainly politically the closest and most trusted "ally" that's short of a formal treaty ally. It will likely be treated more preferentially than Arab states with a lot more western/Israeli influence and leaning. We've all heard the talk about Pakistan's current domestic politics but I feel whatever graces Pakistan gives the US are quite a bit more self-serving than people will have us believe ie they are less likely to jump ship than Arab nations when we're talking about potential export orders and securing these fighters.

This platform is just being introduced to PLANAF and PLAAF. It will be serving for decades to come and alongside J-20, it will be the other spearhead fighter and won't be superseded until J-36 and J-50 reach LRIP. Imagine intel leaks from export models just to earn barely some pocket change. In fact unless we're selling to oil rich nations and selling hundreds, it's really not worth exporting at all unless it's a significantly downgraded unit and differing from PLAAF's so much that the American can have their engineers take one apart and just say ... yep that's a fighter and this is also how basic export models are specced out.

At this point one might think why purchase such a fighter. Answer is, it will still be a LO fighter even with no dedicated stealth metamaterials. Just on shaping and internal weapons bay alone (which the Koreans could not give the KF-21) a J-35AE is still going to be the best exportable fighter next to F-35. I'd put money behind a downgraded AE over Su-57 just on radar, ECM/ESM and available export missiles alone. It'll be stealthier too even without the same materials.

It's childish reading crazy claims from Pakistan's side about getting access to anything and everything which history has proven to be otherwise. PL-15 sold to Pakistan were indeed export grade. Their longer than expected range was simply not exposed until the conflict. The J-10CE sold was also not the same as the ones in PLAAF. Even physically different antennas.

This topic is being discussed in context of the J-35AE. It's good to sometimes dispell some of the nonsense spread online about access to non-downgraded stuff. This isn't to say China only exports downgraded stuff. That's clearly not the case for ground forces equipment and some naval equipment.

There’s a recurring assumption in these discussions that if something isn’t identical to the PLA version, then it’s “downgraded” in the pejorative sense, as if China is tossing scraps. That framing misses the bigger picture.

Let’s take the J-10CE and PL-15E as examples. Yes, the export versions differ in some aspects, different antennas, software, but these changes don't inherently make them ineffective or “childish wishful thinking” from Pakistan’s side. They were tailored and tailored effectively for Pakistan’s operational doctrine, not stripped down just to create separation. The PL-15E’s range wasn’t a surprise because it was "secretly superior"; it was simply employed well, in the right setup.

This is the key point with the J-35AE discussion. Just like the J-10CE, Pakistan wouldn’t be asking for a carbon copy of the PLA variant. It would be acquiring a version that suits its needs: stealthy enough, sensor-fused, internally armed, networked and above all, fully integrated into PAF’s command and control structure & combat effectiveness in the regional context.

Also worth noting, Pakistan is not treated like a typical customer. It’s a long-standing strategic partner for China, and the military-to-military trust is deep. We’ve already seen advanced naval systems like the 054A/Ps, SSKs, long-range SAMs like the HQ-9P, and AESA-equipped fighters delivered not in token numbers, but as part of a deliberate force structure evolution.

At the end of the day, the core issue is this: too many people still view arms exports through a U.S.-centric lens, where allies are kept at arm’s length, and “export version” automatically means “watered down.” China’s model. especially with Pakistan is based on strategic alignment, trust, and operational customization, not just controlled tech trickle-down.

 

[pokepara]

Imagine intel leaks from export models just to earn barely some pocket change. In fact unless we're selling to oil rich nations and selling hundreds, it's really not worth exporting at all unless it's a significantly downgraded unit and differing from PLAAF's so much that the American can have their engineers take one apart and just say ... yep that's a fighter and this is also how basic export models are specced out.

IMO, the greatest reason for export is not money, but to ensure a country remains independent of the US.

I could be reading too much into things, but Eygpt has been a bit more independent since they got PL-15s.

Military air traffic comms show that Egypt declined a request by two U.S. Air Force B-52H "Stratofortress" bombers to pass through Egyptian airspace. Tensions are continuing to rise between Egypt and the US, with them now being at their worst in decades. This is largely due to Trump's widely condemned plan for Gaza.

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